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Real estate is the pillar industry of economic development, so in the past few years, in order to maintain the rapid development of the economy, investment in real estate has been increasing. Of course, this is also because most people have not yet solved the problem of living, and they need to continuously build houses to solve everyone's living needs. However, after so many years of development, not only the economic structure needs to be transformed, but everyone's living needs have been basically met, so the problem of oversupply in the property market has become more and more obvious. And according to the current real estate investment speed and population trend, the contradiction between supply and demand in the future property market will only become more and more intense! There will even be a phenomenon that houses cannot be sold, after all, the decline in the birth rate is already an inevitable fact, and negative population growth is close at hand.
The most direct evidence is that the new population in the country will only be 480,000 in 2021! According to this birth rate, the population is likely to grow negatively in 2022. But the problem is that the investment in real estate is still increasing, last year the national real estate investment reached 147602 billion yuan, an increase of 4.4% year-on-year! So this will bring about a problem, that is, many of the houses built can not find anyone to take over.
The data shows that in 2021, the area of new housing starts nationwide will reach 1.99 billion square meters. If calculated according to the calculation of 100 square meters of a house, that is, 19.9 million new houses will be built in 2021. But the problem is that in 2021, there will only be 8.87 million new births registered in the country, and even if you buy 2 houses for each registered child, there will be more than 2 million houses left that cannot be sold! In the context of this kind of house being built but not being sold, some people are wondering whether the future developer will give the house to those who cannot afford to buy a house.
In the author's opinion, this is simply impossible, because the developer is not a philanthropist, and how can he give away the house at a huge cost of real money and silver? And as long as the house is still in the hand, it can generate value, but if the house is given away, it will have no value at all. For the simplest example, even if a house can no longer be sold, as long as the developer prices 1 million, it is worth 1 million yuan. But if the developer sends the house out for free, then the house has no value at all, and 1 million is equivalent to adrift. Therefore, for developers, even if the house cannot be sold, it is impossible to give it away in vain, and it is impossible to significantly reduce the price, otherwise it is better to declare bankruptcy directly. For example, not long ago, a real estate tycoon said: "At any time, you cannot sell the company's assets cheaply, and you cannot rely on the cheap sale of assets to repay debts."
In the author's opinion, even if the oversupply phenomenon in the property market is so serious, there will be no developers who will give away houses for free. Therefore, in recent years, we can often see the news that some developers have gone bankrupt due to cash flow breaks, but they have never seen the news that developers have given houses to others in vain. However, although the developer will not send the house for free, there are speculators who will "send" the house for free, for example, there are investors in Yanjiao who said that as long as someone is willing to repay on time, they can give the house to others. It's just that everyone knows that the value of the house in Yanjiao is now lower than the value of the loan, and even if the house is "sent in white", it is still not cost-effective. There is no free lunch in the world, like the house is hundreds of thousands, millions of goods, if it is really given to you in vain, you also have to think about whether this is a trap.