January "opening red": new RMB loans and social financing scale both hit a record high

Under the support of stable growth and wide credit policies, at the beginning of 2022, a number of financial data, including new RMB loans and social financing scale, hit a record high.

　　On February 10, the latest data released by Chinese Min min bank showed that RMB loans increased by 3.98 trillion yuan in January, an increase of 394.4 billion yuan year-on-year, which is the highest point of single-month statistics and exceeds the same period last year.

　　In terms of credit structure, the proportion of medium- and long-term loans by enterprises is more than half, but the proportion of medium- and long-term loans to households that have attracted much attention is less than 20%.

　　By sector, household loans increased by 843 billion yuan in January, of which short-term loans increased by 100.6 billion yuan, medium- and long-term loans increased by 742.4 billion yuan; enterprise (business) unit loans increased by 3.36 trillion yuan, of which short-term loans increased by 1.01 trillion yuan, medium- and long-term loans increased by 2.1 trillion yuan, bill financing increased by 178.8 billion yuan; non-banking financial institutions loans decreased by 141.7 billion yuan.

　　"The new RMB loans of 3.98 trillion yuan in January exceeded market expectations, but from a structural point of view, residential loans, both long-term and short-term, are weaker than last year, and the additional 400 billion yuan is mainly from short-term loans and bill financing of enterprises, which also reflects the need for further improvement of the credit structure." Wen Bin, chief researcher of China Minsheng Bank, said.

　　"In mid-to-late January, the loan launch began to accelerate, mainly relying on the loan issuance of enterprises, especially large enterprise projects, and the mortgage basically continued the normal rhythm." A relevant person on the joint-stock system in Shanghai told the surging news.

　　Supported by new loans, the scale of social financing in January 2022 also hit a record high, exceeding market expectations.

　　According to preliminary statistics, the increase in the scale of social financing in January 2022 was 6.17 trillion yuan, 984.2 billion yuan more than the same period last year.

　　thereinto RMB loans to the real economy increased by 4.2 trillion yuan, which was a single-month statistical high, an increase of 380.6 billion yuan year-on-year; foreign currency loans issued to the real economy increased by 103.1 billion yuan, an increase of 6.7 billion yuan year-on-year; entrusted loans increased by 42.8 billion yuan, an increase of 33.7 billion yuan year-on-year; trust loans decreased by 68 billion yuan, down 16.2 billion yuan year-on-year; undiscounted bank acceptance bills increased by 473.1 billion yuan, an increase of 17.1 billion yuan year-on-year; net financing of corporate bonds was 579.9 billion yuan, an increase of 188.2 billion yuan year-on-year; and net financing of government bonds was 602.6 billion yuan, an increase of 358.9 billion yuan year-on-year Non-financial enterprises raised 143.9 billion yuan in domestic stock financing, an increase of 44.8 billion yuan year-on-year.

　　"Social financing has begun to stabilize, while the structure is also continuing to improve, compared with the same period last year, the increase of 1 trillion yuan is mainly in three parts, one is that the support of loans to the actual economy increased by nearly 400 billion yuan, corporate bonds increased by more than 190 billion yuan over the same period last year, which also reflects the improvement of direct financing, in addition to the increase of more than 350 billion yuan in government bonds, reflecting the fiscal policy in the front." Wen Bin said.

　　In addition, the year-on-year growth rate of M2 in January also significantly exceeded market expectations.

　　At the end of January, the balance of broad money (M2) was 243.1 trillion yuan, an increase of 9.8% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 0.8 and 0.4 percentage points higher than the end of the previous month and the same period of the previous year, respectively. The balance of narrow money (M1) was 61.39 trillion yuan, down 1.9% year-on-year, excluding the impact of the Spring Festival timing factor, M1 increased by about 2% year-on-year. The balance of currency (M0) in circulation was 10.62 trillion yuan, an increase of 18.5% year-on-year. Net cash injection for the month was 1.54 trillion yuan.

　　"The growth of M2 beyond expectations reflects the policy effect of the wide currency, on the one hand, the comprehensive reduction of the RRR implemented in December last year will help the market liquidity to be reasonable and abundant, on the other hand, fiscal deposits are more than 500 billion yuan less than the same period last year, which also reflects the fiscal policy forward-oriented efforts, which is conducive to the improvement of market liquidity." Wen Bin said.

　　For the follow-up monetary policy trend, Wen Bin said: "Monetary policy should further play a good role in the dual functions of total and structural, never look at the reduction of the RRR, interest rate cut there is still room, especially from the current point of view, the credit recovery of the residential sector is weak, further reduction of interest rates will help increase the investment and consumption demand of residents and enterprise sectors." ”

　　CITIC Securities pointed out that February is still the "small credit month" of the calendar year, and in March, it is expected that the landing of "wide credit" will drive credit to pick up, and the entire first quarter will still be the high point of credit delivery throughout the year. It should be noted that the January credit data exceeded expectations, and it is necessary to be vigilant against the possibility of "eating grain", and the sustainability of credit delivery beyond expectations remains to be observed in February.