In 2050, less than 1 contributor will have to support 1 retiree, and the pension crisis is at hand

author：Yao Lingyu 2022-02-10 16:59:00

status quo

According to the pension report of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, in 2018, 1 person in the basic pension insurance of urban enterprise employees in the country did not pay, and by 2022, it will become almost 1 person out of every 4 people who do not pay; in 2018, there will be more than 2 contributors to support 1 retiree, and by 2022, less than 2 contributors will be needed to support 1 retiree.

If according to this ratio, the post-90s will usher in retirement after 2050 at the earliest, and according to the existing data, it is predicted that the population over 60 years old in the mainland will reach about 480 million in 2050, if the pension still adopts the pay-as-you-go system, after 2050 it will be far more pessimistic than now, then it is not 2 to raise 1 but 1 to raise 1, or even lower than the column.

In 2050, less than 1 contributor will have to support 1 retiree, and the pension crisis is at hand

history

In fact, Social Security is not foolproof.

The first social security system was established in 52 years, and it took only 8 years to go bankrupt. The second social security system was established in 62 years and went bankrupt in just 6 years. The third social security system began to be established in 69 years and went bankrupt in only 7 years. The fourth social security system was established at 78 years and went bankrupt in just 15 years. The fifth layer of social security system began to be established in 1993, and it took 27 years to enter the actual technical bankruptcy stage, which although it has exceeded the previous one, but is far below the matching expectations of the human life cycle.

Workaround

Argentina has already given us the answer to this question around 1980.

The solution is that the state keeps printing money, leaving the money of those who receive fixed interest income (the pension group is a large part) worthless. If you are a working class or a strong labor force, inflation will also lead to wage inflation in the labor market, so if you do this, the loss will be the group of elderly people who will retire in the future.

Alternatively, use the method of delaying retirement. It is estimated that from the post-80s, I am afraid that even if you are in your 70s, you will still earn money in restaurants and other ways to earn money for the elderly, which will be the life of most people. In fact, the current rural elderly are basically working until they can't do it, and there is no such thing as retirement and non-retirement.

If it is a kind of rural elderly retiree with a monthly pension of two hundred yuan, then 1:1 support is no problem, but like some elderly retirees with a monthly pension of 10,000 yuan, the 5 contributors cannot afford to support one.

I have always believed that most of China's current problems are essentially distributional issues. Do not share the difficulties of maintaining a high quality of life for a small number of people to all ordinary people.

And firmly believe in the following two assertions:

1. The essence of all social inequities is a matter of distribution.

2. If equality cannot be embodied economically, it is false equality.

In 2050, less than 1 contributor will have to support 1 retiree, and the pension crisis is at hand

status quo

history

Workaround

Read on

#Life has a temperature #Tomorrow, is the last day of six nine, next, enter seven nine. In the small town, looking at the willows along the river, is close at hand. After seven or nine, it is the so-called Valentine's Day in the West, we

#Jinan Headlines #ChatZhai Zhiyi - Huang English / Le Dao You have lived in Liaozhai for a long time and want to pursue your own life, secretly ran out of Liaozhai and hid in my heart Since then, there has been no peace in my heart

Every winter, the coldest season, I have to raise a large number of snow willow branches. Buy the dead branch home, the first step is to wake up the branch, soak it in clean water, soak it for three or four hours, and wake up

The night has been bleached and how much darkness makes people feel relieved if you are willing to come to the door all the time to open for you if you do not want to tell me that you are still because far away may always be as close as there is a flash of hope

Spring snow - massive north wind whistling weather gloomy wind with thousands of elves from the sky hand in hand to fly happily the earth without a trace of dust and no trace of who told me that I was lost on the way home or

Trade Countdown!! Where are the rockets going? Hope is at hand!!! On February 10, Beijing time, the trading door was closed in less than four hours, where did the reconstructed rocket go?

Thief! In the close pursuit of the police, it is still so easy to get out of danger! It's not that the police are incompetent, it's that this criminal is too cunning! This plot, even the movie can not be made, but also more refined than the movie

These three top program effects actually presented me in the same game [Tear Run] Now the IG belongs to the people all changed again, but the ancestral program effect can not lose the first wave of singles

Up on a word, I only say once [cover your face] [cover your face] currency is the stock market is a barometer, there is milk is good! Short-term loan growth also exceeded expectations, combined with a PPI U-turn down, the corporate sector

#当你遇到人生困境时, how do you spend your life in the #When you encounter personal life difficulties, you must find the reasons for the formation of your own life difficulties and then gradually solve them in layers, and then start from scratch or

In those things between the god of wealth and the poor, there was a person who felt that he was very powerful. But there were no, those rich people were rich, and one day he met the god of wealth, so he asked the god of wealth, and so did others

Old photos: Life in zhejiang in the 1980s. This is a set of old photos taken in the 1980s of the last century of the landscape of various parts of Zhejiang and the lives of local people, and it is a true memory

#Yantai Headline#Yantai is the ceiling of the northern coastal city in my heart... "The sea of Yantai satisfies all my yearning for the sea, coming out of Chaoyang Street and walking along coastal street, originally

Here is like the clouds of summer, every day is different, every day there are beautiful scenery, this is the vibrato blogger Ka Mujiang said, he showed the scenery of Hemu Village to the world, let people know

The Russian-Ukrainian crisis is still unclear, and Ukraine still has a "double-edged sword" hanging over its head

Ice pier encountered a "lower head" crisis? The mascot's self-cultivation can refer to the stone of his mountain

[Heart] Dawn is in front of you [Heart] No winter will not pass, no spring will not come, let us look forward to the day when the ice and snow melt, when the virus is defeated, winter will end, spring

The epidemic in the United States is coming to an end! Fauci, a top infectious disease expert in the United States, has publicly stated that the epidemic in the United States may end at the end of this year. As we all know, the epidemic in the United States has now reached a non-right

Canada probably did not think of it at all, and it paid for the "little brother" of the United States after running before and after running, and the result was that the advantage was that it did not get any money, but was exported by the United States to its own country

20220211 meat quite a lot of news [turn] [Be wary of the recurrence of the European debt crisis!] The risk of us inflation exploding global interest rates is intensifying! The price of natural gas in Europe is 14 times that of the United States in February

Diabetics are more likely to be targeted by these two cancers! 2 ways to solve the crisis

If we do not change, the national crisis will deepen! Today, see a video of a large group of angels dressed in white finishing the year! Shouting slogans: In the new year, the career is thriving! Comments below say him

Biden is in a hurry: the Americans are hurrying to evacuate Ukraine! On February 11, British Sky News reported that the United States was "increasingly risky of Russian military action against Ukraine" due to the "increasing risk of Russian military action" in the United States

@Teacher Zhao Hongwei Japan's diplomatic plus and minus are two major elements, domestic power struggle, and US pressure. The second level is the geopolitical relationship between China and Japan. However, not only rational, but also irrational dynamics

Haiqing debuted for many years, and now it is revealed that he is being unspoken. Don't say sooner or later, what is the intention? In the past two years, Haiqing's opportunities have not been much, and last year she called for more opportunities for actresses of her age

Russia did the right thing! Russia has been increasing its troops along the Ukrainian border over the past 24 hours, and it is estimated that more than 100,000 troops have been deployed and 30,000 troops have been deployed, the U.S. Department of Defense said today

The Chinese Super League team was disbanded, heavily punished, and banned, and Chinese football was in crisis

Turkey went to war without declaration, and 60 warplanes bombed indiscriminately, destroying 80 military targets in neighboring countries in one fell swoop! Recently, the outside world has focused on the Ukraine crisis, not the United States and Russia

5G network interferes with aircraft flight? A number of airlines have urgently announced the grounding of flights to the United States, how about China? Nowadays, the vast majority of our country has covered 5G signals, and 5G networks are the latest

Probably because of the job rotation system, I rarely pay attention to a specific day, it is a few days of the month, a few days, because most of the time, we have to go to work on weekends, pay attention to this

Mountains and rivers are doubtful and there is no way, and the willows are dark and the flowers are bright and another village. Muhe Village in Xinjiang is one such village. Life on the road, stumbling, ups and downs, may encounter career bottlenecks, also

In 842, Emperor Wuzong of Tang launched the "Campaign to Destroy Buddhism", confiscating more than 4,600 monasteries and smelting the Statues of Buddha minted in gold, silver and bronze into currency, collecting them into the national treasury and solving the financial crisis