On February 10, a sudden geomagnetic storm caused Space X to scrap 40 starlink satellites. Space weather experts say the resulting solar wind destroys more satellites as solar activity moves from a miniatural period to active.
SpaceX, led by Elon Musk, is already feeling threatened by solar activity: a sudden geomagnetic storm disrupted Earth's atmosphere, causing about 40 Starlink Internet satellites to be scrapped prematurely. SpaceX expects that the company's single launch of the Starlink satellites will be almost all lost.
But space meteorologists explain that geomagnetic storms are not uncommon and are expected to only become more frequent in the coming years. From December 2019, the Sun began a new 11-year cycle of activity and is now entering the peak of solar activity, with solar activity expected to peak around 2025.
Tamitha Skov, a research scientist at aerospace companies, said: "The reason [the solar wind] wasn't a big problem before was because for the past three to four years, it has been in what we call a 'solar minimum.'" ”
It is worth noting that the most recent solar minimum was almost synchronized with the surge in the number of satellites in low-Earth orbit. According to the analysis of Bryce Tech, a space industry research consultancy, about 4,000 small satellites have been launched worldwide in the past four years, the vast majority of which are operating in low-Earth orbit.
Skov admits, "A lot of these business projects... It is not known how much space weather affects satellites, especially these smaller satellites. ”
Solar cycles and satellites
Geomagnetic storms originate from the solar wind produced by solar activity. The magnetic field on the Earth's periphery causes the energy of the solar wind to be released into the Earth's atmosphere, causing the Earth's upper atmosphere to heat up.
Illustration: Auroras also originate from geomagnetic storms
"Most people really like this phenomenon, but they don't realize the harm at all because they're focused on the aurora," Skov said.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has set the measured geomagnetic storm intensity rating to G1 to G5, and the geomagnetic storm that destroyed the Starlink satellite last week is expected to be G1. Erika Palmerio, a research scientist at the Association for Predictive Science, explains that G1-level storms are small and "very common," typically occurring more than 1,700 times during an 11-year solar cycle.
"The G5 is an extreme geomagnetic storm, which is very rare. We will find about 4 G5-magnitude geomagnetic storms in each solar cycle. ”
Palmerio stressed that G5-class geomagnetic storms pose a threat to the power grid or spacecraft operations, but have no effect on the human body.
Palmerio said, "These geomagnetic storms are not directly harmful to humans on the ground. ”
The side effect of rising atmospheric density is increased resistance from satellites in low-Earth orbit, which can cause spacecraft to de-orbit or cause spacecraft such as starlink satellites to fall into the atmosphere and burn up.
Increased radiation caused by geomagnetic storms can also damage spacecraft. Palmerio said the radiation would burn down the ship's instruments or detectors.
Skov stressed that the Starlink satellites are "very small", but there are large solar panels, which essentially bring a "huge" resistance umbrella to each satellite.
Illustration: Starlink satellites in deployment
"When it comes to resistance, there's no way to solve this design," Skov said. "For years, some people in the space meteorology community have been talking about the disappearance of starlink satellites from the sky because we know that it's only a matter of time before solar activity starts to be active again."
In addition, Skov said, Earth's "spongy" atmosphere means that there is no specific minimum safe altitude in orbit around the Earth. The recently scrapped Starlink satellites are all located at an altitude of 210 kilometers just launched, which is far below the 550 kilometers of normal operation of the Starlink satellites. But Skov said there is still a "possibility of resistance" in the orbit of the starlink satellites.
Lessons from history
Both Skov and Palmerio stressed that geomagnetic storms caused more damage than is commonly thought, and that such events have abounded throughout history caused by solar activity.
"In 1967, a solar storm caused NORAD to lose contact with half of the satellites," Skov said, an event that nearly sparked a nuclear war.
Another solar wind in 1989 crippled the power grid in the Canadian province of Quebec, suspended trading on the Toronto Stock Exchange and found that sensor flights on the Shuttle were faulty. Scientists believe that the solar wind also caused the scientific observation satellite Solar Peak Year (SMM) to deorbit.
"This is just the appearance," Skov added, adding that the solar wind would also have a "sustained" impact on GPS systems and satellite phones.
The 2003 Halloween storm caused the most powerful geomagnetic storm on record. Palmerio said the ever-increasing radiation has led to the destruction of various space science instruments, from Earth's orbit to the surface of Mars.
The main difference in the current solar cycle from the previous solar cycle, which peaked in April 2014, is that there are thousands more satellites in low Earth orbit.
"But it's still a wilderness," Skov said.
Source: NetEase Technology