【Luojia Financial Research Report】Under the background of the overall rebound of the overseas market, A shares finally did not continue to lie down, although it was still a bit shaky, but it was good to support itself from the stretcher of the ICU...
In the author's opinion, the biggest benefit after the holiday is not the rebound itself, but the fact that someone has finally begun to "seriously" analyze the "market risk"!!
Although the Article of the People's Daily on February 10 is more from the "macro perspective" and the high degree of "omnibus" from the decision-making level to govern the country, it emphasizes that "preventing and resolving financial risks is a major threshold that must be crossed to achieve high-quality development", but it also deliberately summarizes that "the relationship between stable growth and risk prevention is handled well... Resolving systemic financial risks with high-quality economic development and preventing secondary financial risks in the process of dealing with risks in other fields" is a "historical lesson".
Luojia Finance should emphasize that the capital market is "risk identification", and only on the basis of identifying risks can we "find opportunities".
The reason why the pre-holiday market encountered major setbacks lies in the market sentiment that began at the end of last year, over-optimism, and only "advanced deployment and spring restlessness" in mind;
Few professional institutions have to suggest a series of risks such as "the Fed's face-turning", "the central mother 'no longer pro'", and domestic institutions "abandoning the old track";
And the market's excessive excitement of "singing more, doing more" emotions encountered reality to hit the face, this impact from the pocket to the head, naturally doubled!
At the time of continuous decline, once the market forms a "panic psychology", no matter whether the official media maintains stability, the seller sings more, the fund purchases itself, the "pessimistic" leading investors are only willing to believe that "this is another scene of 'don't go away'" ...
On the contrary, after experiencing the relatively full release of risks in the market, we began to rationally explore the "internal and external risks faced by the market" - it should be emphasized that the so-called "risk" is not only the rise and fall of "externalization", but more importantly, the "shortcomings in the internal structure and mechanism of the market";
Moving "uncertainty" from "dark places" to "bright places" can help the market clean up the "'reef' at the expected level" and help the "real stability" of market sentiment!
Only the market rebound in this context is closer to the rational process of "identifying risks" and discovering "market opportunities", and only in this "healthy psychological" state can the A-share market have the conditions and possibilities to truly understand that the Chinese economy in 2022 can bring a "safe economic shell" to A-shares and help RMB assets to "bottom out" (as for the specific value discovery, it depends on the investors' own fire eyes!). I believe that "steady growth" is inseparable from infrastructure, no matter what "new and old")!
Lesion one: pay for the "strange fund structure"
Previously, the official media attributed the reason for "inducing" A shares to "fall 'incorrectly' under the overall macroeconomic situation" to "some institutions are overly pessimistic and pass on the 'external risk sentiment'";
Nowadays, it seems that the judgment of the relevant media and the arrest of the "actor" are generally correct, but there is a big deviation in the "cause of the accident";
According to the information I understand, the reason why some institutions (it is more likely that a considerable part of the private placements) are still clinging to "selling heavy stocks" under the "good situation" of the economy and policy care;
To a large extent, it is not a "willingness problem/cognitive problem", but a "strategic problem/operational problem"!
As for whether they "really listened to the lies of the 'Fed Devil'" and "went against the tide" to sell;
Personal estimates are more of an "emotional" problem, i.e., the release of external risks, exacerbating the extent of their "anxiety/panic" and amplifying the "collateral harm" effect of selling heavy stocks;
The root of the problem is not whether it is good or bad at the macroeconomic level, nor in its "thinking that the macro side is good or bad", but in its "survival instinct": many private placements (said to be as high as 80%) paranoid survival mode!
According to the flower of private placement, Li Bei's analysis, domestic securities private equity funds, more than 80% of the size is a strange form -
The strategy is simple stock long, does not use hedging, and does not diversify across the asset class;
Most of the positions are concentrated in terms of industry and style, especially in the hot sectors with outstanding performance in the early stage;
However, there is a requirement for absolute return and a constraint on the stop loss line;
Although volatility and concentration are similar to public offerings, due to customer pressure and the objective constraints of stop loss lines, the ability to withstand volatility is much smaller than that of public offerings and retail investors.
This makes it so that when the market fluctuates, especially when the early popular industries with a high proportion of private equity funds have a large decline, the net value of private equity funds often falls rapidly because of high positions and high concentration, and often can only reduce positions and stop losses, driving the further decline of the market.
……
A little attention is not difficult to find that in this wave of "accelerated decline" since the beginning of the year, the ChiNext board with the best performance of "high platform diving" is precisely the ChiNext board with the highest concentration of private and public offerings!
It can also be understood that it is the operation mode of "piling up, betting on treasure, and lifting each other's palanquins" that has helped them to "make a lot of money" in 2021 and successfully complete their respective ranking/performance tasks;
But in 2022, we will have to pay for this "make quick money" model:
The above-mentioned "pure long with stop loss line" operation is actually a kind of leverage.
2021 reflects the positive feedback of "upward" (good performance brings a rapid increase in scale, further promoting the rise of heavy positions);
In 2022, it began to highlight its downward "negative" feedback (heavy stocks fell, net value shrank rapidly, and the position was reduced and stopped, stimulating further declines in the market).
Lesion 2: Viral extreme investment in a certain sector
In response to this "double-edged sword and a wave of streams to make quick money" model, the "good people" in the industry give a "nickname" - "viral extreme investment in a certain sector"!
Zhang Hui, general manager of HuiTianfu, pointed out——
On the investment side, there has been a trend of extreme and centralized investment of some fund managers in the industry, that is, heavy betting on a certain sector, which violates the basic principles of portfolio management with balanced allocation and risk diversification.
Some fund managers invest in a certain sector extremely, win short-term performance rankings, and the scale of rapid growth from small to 10 billion yuan of "fame" stories spread like a virus and affect fund managers.
From the perspective of trading behavior, China's capital market still has obvious characteristics of retail investors, in fact, the investment behavior of many institutions also shows strong retail characteristics.
This is one of the important reasons why the Chinese market is particularly volatile.
On the capital side, sales agencies and end customers are increasingly keen on the so-called "flow" problem. That is, what funds pay attention to buy... Short-term performance of bright, or a popular fashion theme investment fund.
Another extreme phenomenon is that the capital side is extremely fond of low-volatility products, but often requires both a relatively high yield ranking and a low volatility and low drawdown.
In terms of financial principles, this is difficult to do, and even if it is done, it may be the result of conforming to short-term market investment behavior, and the reproducibility is poor.
From the product side, a large number of theme funds or industry funds have appeared in the market. These funds have a good flow effect and good short-term performance under the theme of being sought after by the public, but ignore the market capacity and long-term investment value of the index, and the result is often to attract ordinary investors to participate in highly volatile industry thematic speculation.
summary
After a period of continuous decline in the spiritual friction of the previous period, the voice of "reflecting on oneself" in the market has increased, no longer simply prevaricating that "the Fed does not have a face" and "domestic institutions have no backbone", but can more objectively analyze the problems of the A-share market itself (first of all, our institutional investors).
To some extent, this also indicates that the domestic capital market can be regarded as "picking up" its own job of "risk identification", rather than simply singing more, or only saying "ZZ is correct";
It is from this perspective that the author's trend of the post-holiday market is more "cautious and 'optimistic'" than before the Spring Festival: only the so-called "stupid bulls" die far away, and A shares can restart "seriously to do risk assessment", risk opportunities, risk opportunities, not only talk about opportunities, do not talk about risks on the line drops...
【Risk Warning】
Shenzhen Luojia Investment Consulting Co., Ltd
Luojia Investment - Consulting Certificate Number ZX0077
Investment Advisor: Zhao Yongchao
Qualification number: A0790621030001
Risk Warning: The above suggestions are for reference only, according to this operation, profit and loss are at your own risk! The stock market is risky, and you need to be cautious!