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· Source of this article: Adam Smith Economics (produced by Liu Shengjun Micro Finance)
Author | Liu Shengjun
Don't underestimate this
Three marriages
Six times bankrupt
Paranoid toss the world's abilities and energy!
01
2024 belongs to Trump
Real enemies are often out of your sight.
At a time when the world is scrambling over COVID-19, humanity may be ignoring the real danger – Trump.
Video on Jan. 26 showed Trump teeing off a golf game. One member proudly said, "Now, invite the 45th President of the United States to take office." Trump laughed and said, "The 45th and 47th."
While the dude is known worldwide for "lying without blinking," this time it's not bragging: Trump raised more than $51 million in the second half of 2021 and now has $122 million in cash reserves. Just a year after the last election, people were already sitting on $122 million. In the politics of money in the United States, this is undoubtedly a dangerous signal. In the 2020 election, Biden and Trump raised $1.6 billion and $1 billion, respectively.
In 2020, Trump did not lose to Biden, but to the new crown epidemic. With Trump's "always win" personality, he is not expected to run in the 2024 election unless: 1) Trump is in jail before the election; 2) the sun comes out of the west.
2024, not to Biden, to Trump:
First, in the 2020 election, although Trump lost to Biden, it must be noted: Trump also received 74,222,964 votes, more than 12 million votes than he won when he was elected in 2016. This shows that the United States today is more torn than the United States at the beginning of Trump's presidency, and the "Sichuan Jianguo" has indeed achieved the historic task of becoming the "president of the United States of America".
Second, voters in 2020 voted for Biden, not because they liked Biden, but because they held the fluke mentality of "trying it out". But Biden has not given hope to the United States, from the evacuation of troops from Afghanistan, to the sound of COVID-19 deaths in 2021 exceeding that of 2020, to Biden's aging dragon clock, whose support rate has been declining all the way(s).
• The odds of "Sleepy Joe" getting re-elected are slim, and Vice President Harris's hopes are slim. As a result, the Democratic Party lost the chip of re-election advantage. Looking around the Democratic Party, there was no successor, and some even began to suggest that Hillary Clinton go out of the mountains again. To be honest, the image of the "crooked Hillary" is already difficult to repair, and the comeback in 2024 will be even worse. Others suggested that Mrs. Obama's Michelle come out, and it seems that the Democratic talent crisis is "thousands of feet deep.".
• Biden is obsessed with "political correctness" and is keen on the Return of the United States to the WHO and the Paris Climate Agreement, but these moves have no appeal to "Sichuan Powder". Biden can't come up with decent measures to divert the stream (a poll released by the Public Religion Research Institute in November 2020 found that two-thirds of Republicans still believe it was Trump who won the 2020 election.) Even more surprising, almost 1 in 3 Republicans agreed that "American patriots had to resort to violence to 'save' America."
• Biden has failed to fix the "bipartisan veto" political impasse, and Biden's high-hope Build Back Better (BBB) tax and spending bill has been bogged down in labor as Democratic Senator Manchin defected. After the 2022 midterm elections, Biden's honeymoon period will officially end, entering a more difficult "hard to do" situation. Fukuyama's worried "political decay" meets Biden's old decay!
• Biden's bad luck has been so bad that U.S. inflation has soared to a 40-year high of 7% due to the pandemic! Inflation can seriously affect the lives and emotions of the people at the bottom, and the unrest in Kazakhstan is a wake-up call! If Biden loses, he can also learn comrade Xiang Yu's shout: Heaven is dead, not the crime of using soldiers!
Inflation rate in Kazakhstan
A December 2021 poll by London-based polling firm Redfield & Wilton Strategies on a hypothetical Biden-Trump "rematch" showed that 44 percent of Americans would vote for Trump, while 38 percent would choose Biden.
02
The Republican Party has become a "Trump Party"
The Republican Party has been completely reduced to a "Trump Party", which is no exaggeration:
• Former Vice President Cheney's daughter was ousted from the Republican No. 3 position simply for publicly criticizing Trump.
• A small number of Republican dissidents were expelled. "2 people fell, 8 people advanced!" Trump was schadenfreude over Rep. Adam Kinzinger's announcement of retirement. Kinsinger was one of 10 House Republican warriors who voted for a second impeachment of Trump.
• Texas Republican Senator Ted Cruz described the January 6 sichuan-fan attack on Congress as a "violent terrorist attack" that was reviled by right-wing people.
• On January 6, 2022, Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives, Pelosi, led a vigil at the U.S. Capitol, holding candles in her hand to mourn the deaths of police officers who died defending Congress. Although Pelosi invited members of both chambers to participate, only two members of the Republican side attended: former U.S. Vice President Dick Cheney and his daughter, Rep. Liz Cheney. Heavens, earth, what is the humanity of those shameful Republicans who dare not come out to mourn the congressional police who died to protect them?!
Cheney Father and Daughter: A child in the Republican Party who punctures the emperor's new clothes
In history, zhao gao's scene of "referring to deer as horses" was actually reproduced in the Republican Party. In the Republican Party, the party spirit has been suppressed to human nature, and the fear of Trump has silenced all Republicans - those who go along with it will prosper, and those who oppose it will die
On January 19, Biden revealed a surprising secret:
• 5 Republican senators chatted with me. They told me they agreed with whatever I said and made them do, 'But Joe, if I do, I'll be beaten in the primary'.
• Can you imagine a person who leaves office intimidating an entire political party into being reluctant to vote for something that goes against his claims simply because they are afraid of being defeated in the primary?
According to a new survey by the Harvard Center for American Politics and the Harvard CAPS/Harris Poll, Trump leads with 57 percent of the 8 potential republican primary candidates. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis came in second with 12 percent approval, and former Vice President Mike Pence came in third with 11 percent support.
03
American Democracy Died in 2024?
In an article in The Atlantic, Patton Gell-Mann wrote that "Trump's next coup has begun":
Richard L. Hasen, a professor of law and political science at the University of California, Irvine, warned, "We are at serious risk that American democracy as we know it will come to an end in 2024, but we are not taking urgent action." "Trump established the first massive political movement in America in a hundred years, and these people are ready to fight for their cause by whatever means necessary, including bloodshed."
• For more than a year, with the acquiescence and explicitity of Republican leaders, republicans in various states have been building a system of stealing election results. Some of these states have rewritten regulations to use partisan control to decide which votes are counted or discarded and which results are certified or rejected. They are expelling or stripping election officials who refused to participate in the conspiracy last November in order to replace them with a faction that supports Trump's claims.
• Trump and his party have persuaded a staggering number of Americans that the basic workings of American democracy are rotten, that allegations of electoral fraud are real, and that only stealing election results can thwart them in winning the election. Since tyranny has usurped their government, violence is legitimate resistance. Around the world, violent elements are typically between the ages of their 20s and 30s. Among the rioters of January 6, 2021, their median age was 41.8 years, which is extremely abnormal.
• Trump and some of his most outspoken allies, notably Fox News' Tucker Carlson, have warned supporters to worry that people of color will replace them. According to the latest census projections, white Americans will become a minority by 2045. In the CPOST poll, almost two-thirds agreed that "African-Americans or Hispanics in our country will end up having more rights than whites." Respondents who believed in the "Great Replacement" theory were four times more likely than those who did not, to support the violent overthrow of an existing president.
Large replacement:
Political scientist Robert Pape, who studied the reasons for the 380 arrests for the Jan. 6 capitol attack, found that most of the attackers came from places where fears of minority and immigrant rights would crowd out whites' rights. The Great Replacement is a fringe right-wing theory that minorities and immigrants are seeking to take over the United States. At a far-right rally in Charlottesville, Virginia, in 2017, a group of white men marched with torches, chanting "Jews will not replace us!" "U.S. Census data for 2020 shows that the number of non-Hispanic whites decreased by 8.6 percent between 2010 and 2020, and her share of the total U.S. population fell by 6 percentage points to 57.8 percent. Whites have seen the largest decline of any ethnic group in the United States. The U.S. Census Bureau estimates that by 2045, the number of whites in the United States will fall to less than 50 percent of the total population. In California, for the first time, the Hispanic/Latino population became the largest ethnic group in the state.
Like all populist leaders, Trump is a master of manipulating the rabble
Trump skillfully uses three classic themes of violent mobilization: "One is that the American way of life is in jeopardy. Second, the fate of the country is at a critical juncture. Third, only truly courageous patriots can save this country," thus inciting anger, passion, and violent sense of justice among the American people. Trump declared:
• If I run in the 2024 presidential election and win, I will pardon those accused of criminal acts in the 2021 Congressional riots. We will treat them fairly. If a pardon is needed, we will pardon them. Because they have been treated so unfairly.
• They released dangerous criminals from prison, but the January 6 defendants lived in hell. Prisons are dirty and disgusting, and we should help them defend themselves. How many people in the Capitol are FBI informants or agents?
• Biden waged war against parents, war against families, war against faith, war against American values, war against the American way of life. Within a year, Biden sparked a border crisis, an energy crisis, an inflation crisis, a labor crisis, a supply chain crisis, and a crisis of violent crime — all while driving the most radical left-wing agenda in [U.S.] history. It took Biden and Democratic extremists less than 12 months to turn it all into crisis, chaos, pain and sorrow.
• Given the current tensions between Russia and Ukraine, Biden puts the world at "real risk of World War III," and his incompetence puts the United States at risk.
• We will hold China accountable for leaking the virus and pay trillions of dollars in damages and pain.
Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian said in response to Trump's so-called compensation for the epidemic: During Trump's tenure, the cumulative number of confirmed cases of new crown pneumonia in the United States exceeded 24 million, and the number of deaths exceeded 410,000. No matter how hypocritical politicians throw the pot and blame, diverting their attention cannot change the fact that they ignore the fact that the prevention and control of people's lives and health is ineffective. Trump's repeated blame will only constantly remind the world that who is the first person responsible for the tragic situation of the epidemic in the United States?
• To put a definitive end to Nancy Pelosi's political career. Then, we'll kick the Biden crime family out of the White House in 2024!
• Biden is controlled by a "deep government" that will wreak more havoc in 2021 than five presidents. Biden has led to hyperinflation and is turning the United States into a "big Venezuela."
• Today's radical Democracies are driven by the vile and vicious spirit of left-wing fascism.
Trump stands for Arizona governor candidate and former Fox TV anchor Lake. You know.
04
For Trump, we can despise it, but we cannot despise it
What you think is incredible doesn't mean it won't happen. There have been unforgettable lessons in human history.
With Trump, we must remember a few points:
stop.
Trump is a comical man, but if you underestimate his danger because of it, you're sorely mistaken.
Trump is so capable of tossing and turning, having had six bankruptcies and three marriages.
In 1991, Trump, who took over the family business, invested $1 billion for the first time to build a Taj Mahal casino, and lost 3 billion yuan in operation in just one year and had to go bankrupt. Trump gave up half of his casino stake and sold yachts and airlines to pay off debts.
Soon after, the Trump Castle he had invested in fell into bankruptcy, and he gave up half of his shares again.
In 1992, the famous Trump Square also went bankrupt, with cash flow at the time less than 20% of what it was when it opened.
In 2004 and 2009, Trump went through two more bankruptcies, with interest on debt alone reaching $200 million a year. He bought the Manhattan Plaza Hotel in 1988 for $390 million, accumulated $550 million in debt over four years, and the hotel's shares were handed over to six banks.
However, Trump actually made a comeback. In 2021, Trump disappeared from Forbes' list of 400 richest Americans for the first time in 25 years. But it is still worth $2.5 billion.
In the eyes of ordinary people, Trump is a very abnormal and neurotic person. But most of the "great men" in the world have this madness and paranoia.)
As Intel's legendary CEO Grove's book, "Only Paranoia Survives," has a special ability. Jobs was paranoid, and so was Musk. As for Trump, as a businessman, he is already a strange businessman, and in the political circles, he is an "atypical politician" who has met once in a century.
05
The hero sees the same thing. I believe, and I fear, that people of insight in the United States cannot fail to think of. However, in the United States, a country that emphasizes "procedural justice", it is not easy to get Rid of Trump.
To get Rid of Trump's "criminal responsibility", there are two opportunities:
1) Jan. 6 Congressional violence: The U.S. Department of Justice has previously indicted more than 300 people in the case. Law enforcement officers have conducted more than 900 search missions across the United States, obtaining more than 15,000 hours of video footage. The rioters have been prosecuted, and Trump, the "general backstage", cannot go unpunished.
2) Tax evasion gate: Trump has been killing and not making public tax records for many years, and there is no silver in this place. From 1985 to 1994, Trump's financial statements lost money for 10 consecutive years, getting worse and worse every year, and in 1995 alone, his tax balance sheet reported a loss of $916 million, which meant that for the next 18 years, Trump earned $50 million a year without paying any income tax. In 1995, the Trump family first shrunk the real estate empire from one billion to $41.4 million, then put it into two trust funds and then transferred it to the five Trump siblings in the form of gifts, and the $1 billion real estate empire paid only $52.2 million in inheritance tax — at least $550 million. On January 3, 2022, the office of Attorney General Zhan Lexia of new York State summoned Trump and his two children. Manhattan District Attorney Vance is also conducting a criminal investigation into the Trump Organization's business practices, interviewing multiple other witnesses. In July 2021, the Trump Organization and its chief financial officer, Allen Weisselberg, were indicted by prosecutors for alleged tax offenses as part of Vance's criminal investigation.
Unfortunately, as Nobel laureate Stiglitz points out, the U.S. judicial system is a paradise for the rich (
Even if the indictment comes out, that doesn't mean there will be a speedy trial. Whether the defendant is Trump, his company or his assistant, the former president will use every opportunity to make the proceeding crawl like a snail. Former prosecutor Perry said, "There is absolutely no doubt that he will continue such a defense strategy for as long as possible." In many ways, procrastination is victory for a criminal defendant. ”
The important thing is not whether 1% of what Trump says is true, but that a considerable number of people in the United States will believe his words. This is really a major change that has not been seen in a hundred years.
According to a poll published by Schön Cooperman Research, 51 percent of respondents believe that American democracy is in danger of collapsing, only 26 percent believe that American democracy will provide protection for future generations, and 85 percent are worried about the rise of political extremism in the United States, which will eventually push the United States into the abyss of civil war.
Don't underestimate the demagogic power of Trump's populism, let alone overestimate the ability of the "Red Neck of America" to distinguish between right and wrong
From now on, pay less attention to the new crown and study Trump more
- END -
Remember to forward the group that comes to your mind for the first time
Liu Shengjun
Economists who insist on telling the truth
Guo is the president of the Institute of Financial Reform
In 2014, he participated in the Prime Minister's Economic Symposium
One of the representative figures of post-70s economists
Author of The Next Decade