With the end of the Spring Festival holiday, workers in many industries have also begun to enter the work.
Recently, from a circle of friends engaged in real estate to see an article, said that Xining's house prices or will usher in a bottoming rebound at the end of March, now is the best opportunity to buy a house, miss the house price will grow up!
The article has the following reasons for the bottoming out of xining house prices at the end of March:
1, real estate regulation: real estate as the pillar industry of the mainland, it is impossible to let real estate collapse, especially in cities like Xining, which have no other important industries, the proportion of real estate is high, and the natural regulation and control will also increase.
Recently, the National Development and Reform Commission issued a notice related to promoting consumption, which clearly stated that it would promote the healthy development of housing consumption. In the past, the development and reform of housing consumption has mostly set the tone of "stability", and this time the NDRC shouted: "promote housing consumption", from "stability" to "promotion".
In terms of returning to Xining, just like the country garden and the big price reduction event of Wutai some time ago, it is the best example, from the price reduction to the appointment in less than a month, it can be seen that Xining attaches great importance to the real estate market.
2. Bank mortgage interest rate cuts to promote real estate development: In January this year, the central bank announced a five-basis point cut in mortgage rates, the first decline in nearly 20 months since April 2020.
The reduction of mortgage interest rates naturally means that the property market is good.
3, Xining real estate investment growth rate declined, the late demand is large: according to the Xining Bureau of Statistics data, in 2021, Xining real estate investment fell by 1.7% year-on-year, accounting for 3.6 percentage points year-on-year decline in fixed asset investment.
This also means that the output of houses that can be listed and traded in the later stage of Xining will decrease, but with the policy of Qinghai using the strength of the whole province to develop Greater Xining, the population of Xining will become larger and larger, and the demand will naturally increase!
4, after the increase in buyers: with the end of the Spring Festival holiday, last year's wait-and-see customers who just needed to enter the market in large quantities, the market situation is better, and the house price will also rise!
At first glance, it feels quite reasonable, but in fact, after careful analysis, Xiaobian feels that the possibility of Xining house prices bottoming out at the end of March is not very large.
1, Xining house prices are already high: although Xining house prices have fallen for 3 consecutive years since November, in fact, Xining house prices have not dropped much!
According to Tuohu statistics, the house prices in the major areas of Xining have exceeded 10,000, and according to the house price-to-income ratio, the difficulty of buying a house in Xining is close to the level of Xi'an and Chengdu. As a fourth-tier city, Xining has housing prices of over 10,000 yuan, and it is basically at a high level.
2, the impact of mortgage interest rates is actually not large: many self-media take the decline in mortgage interest rates as the target of house prices, in fact, the impact of the decline in mortgage interest rates is not large. Taking the first home loan of 1 million yuan and the loan of 30 years as an example, the interest rate reduction means that the monthly mortgage is only about 31 yuan less!
3, Xining housing output oversupply: this is a clichéd problem, Xining urban permanent population is currently about 1.5 million people, but Xining's commercial housing plus a variety of shed reform, resettlement, public rental housing, etc. are enough to resettle more than 3 million people, and Xining in the past two years will have a large number of real estate began to deliver housing, then the supply of second-hand housing will also increase!
So overall, Xining's house prices are actually at a high level, and the Xining property market in 2022 is still a "stability" trend, at least in the first half of 2022, the possibility of a sharp rise in house prices is unlikely.