Author | Zheng Yue
Edit | Wei Shijie
The COVID-19 pandemic has been going on for two years.
In the face of the latest variants coming again, people are slightly calmer and slightly more tired than they were two years ago. The world is beginning to embrace a lasting "new normal."
Under the impact of the epidemic, people's lifestyles have been changed, business rules have been reshaped, and some industries are facing unprecedented difficulties in history.
We have selected the four industries that have been most affected and "tragically" affected by the public: retail, tourism, restaurants, and film – practitioners in these industries tell us that desperate places also generate hope, and the epidemic has accelerated the metabolism of social development, although it has cruelly "eliminated" many small and micro enterprises, but also left the difficult proposition of industry change in front of all entrepreneurs and entrepreneurs. Getting through the winter is not only the only belief, after the shuffle, new changes should also be born.
The following is an oral account of the interviewee, which was compiled and published by Geek Park.
Retail: The battle for supply, we have also become the main force in the fight against the epidemic
A technical service provider in the domestic retail industry
Many people may not know that after the outbreak of the epidemic, the pressure on the retail industry in various places is very large. As soon as the epidemic rebounds, the regulatory authorities will also convey hope: to ensure the supply of residents' daily necessities - grain, oil, rice and noodles, fresh vegetables, can not be cut off.
In fact, as soon as the community implements the sealing management, the original offline procurement of consumers will be transferred to the online, and the order will soar, which puts forward high requirements for the digital operation ability of traditional supermarkets; just like, you open a store alone, you can usually receive 3 customers at the same time, in an emergency, how do you receive 30 customers at the same time under the same manpower?
Traditional supermarkets rely entirely on human management and operation, which is very dependent on individual experience, and there are great differences between different regions. Digital solutions mean solving information gaps, information integration: in the case of out-of-stock, you will be able to see at a glance who can be deployed, what is the optimal route, in the case of capacity shortage, you can calculate the optimal distribution route in the middle office, timely deployment; in the event of an increase in orders or about to explode, you can make predictions based on past data. At the same time, communication and coordination costs are minimized.
Community workers delivering food during the pandemic
Digital intervention means efficient order response and data collaboration, supply chain visualization and efficient transportation system, to ensure that supermarkets can efficiently collaborate with suppliers during the epidemic, through intelligent replenishment and other algorithms and Internet of Things infrastructure, accelerate the speed of goods in and out of the warehouse, to achieve warehouse-to-warehouse, warehouse-to-store, warehouse-to-community, warehouse-to-person comprehensive digital management and efficient operation. Continuous supply means that consumers have guaranteed quality, safety and price.
For example, on January 18 this year, a new case of COVID-19 was added in Beijing's Chaoyang District, and the patient lived in Shigezhuang Village, Pingfang Township, Chaoyang District, a relatively remote community. In the past, such areas were prone to supply cuts. After the report of the sudden epidemic, Beijing Wumart and Multi-point Dmall urgently adjusted the scope of distribution, and designated two nearby stores to provide targeted services for the sealed community, and at the same time urgently deployed the strength of each store and logistics center to provide supply guarantee for the sealed community.
Digital distribution is also very important. How to deliver orders far beyond the day to day to the community safely and efficiently? It is necessary to open up the data such as orders, inventory, and transportation capacity, and realize real-time deployment through intelligent algorithms, so as to support each store to flexibly adjust according to the actual development of the epidemic situation and the order volume, and even accurate to the order volume of each time period and each link. We can see that at present, Tianjin, Wumart can still achieve the city-wide 28 pairs a day, half an hour, and some high-risk areas also fully guarantee 8 pairs a day and 2 hours.
These delivery experiences are very instructive when disasters occur. Many companies like to donate money in times of disaster because it is relatively simple. Natural disasters often disrupt transportation, and the logistics costs of donated supplies often exceed the cost of the supplies themselves. For example, the most urgent needs of the victims are instant noodles and drinking water, the unit price of these items is very low, and when measured by the amount, it seems that the company is very small. But really being able to get these supplies into the hands of the residents in the disaster area is the most important thing to do.
The epidemic has been repeated for two years, and behind many daily lives is a lot of invisible efforts. In areas where cases occur, many supermarkets are worried that employees may not be able to return to work after work (once there is a case in the employee's neighborhood, they may be quarantined), which will affect the retail supply of an entire region. Companies require employees to eat and live in the company. We (technical service providers) also need to patrol the front-line supermarkets, find problems, and solve them at any time.
Supermarket staff sort out self-bill of lading
One day, next to a vegetable supply rack, the clerk of the supermarket was loading the goods, and this person had been working for 72 hours without leaving the supermarket, because the neighborhood where his partner lived was blocked and could not get to the post, so the loading and tidying of the area was all up to him. In front of the shelf, the customer was grabbing the cabbage, and several times the advice was fruitless, and he and the customer quarreled.
Then I saw him cry. A man. He was still muttering: Why can't we wait, why can't we respect us, our time is not time...
I was so impressed with that image. Even if the company behind him makes a series of digital efforts to ensure supply, it will eventually rely on people to operate, and technology will return to people.
Tourism: The head is expanding while closing stores
Li Chao, founder of Travel Around the World
If this year will be a year of great reshuffle for the tourism industry, it means that companies that can't hold on will die silently.
When the epidemic first came, many practitioners may feel that the SARS time is similar, and it is good to rest for a few months ( just fine ), but from the beginning of the spread of the epidemic abroad, everyone realized that the situation was very serious, and they did not expect that inbound and outbound tourism had stagnated for so long.
The hospitality industry has also been greatly affected. The core influencing factor is the recurrence of the epidemic, 2020 is actually relatively good, there are government subsidies, and the epidemic situation is relatively stable in the second half of the year. And in the first few months of 2020, many companies directly gave employees a holiday, and the cost fell at once, but in 2021, the epidemic was repeated, and the hotel had to continue to operate, and there was no business, and it was impossible to make ends meet.
Guided tour live at the Summer Palace
This is almost powerless for the hotel.
Under the epidemic, it may be an opportunity for the head company to further widen the gap with the echelon below. So we have seen that the leading companies in the hotel industry, such as Huazhu, Jinjiang and Homeinns, have indeed expanded during the epidemic, and as a whole, they will widen the gap with some second-tier companies. However, we cannot be blindly optimistic, looking at the financial report of Huazhu Hotel Group, on the one hand, it is expanding, on the other hand, some stores are not ideal due to the unsatisfactory operating conditions caused by the epidemic.
Many young people now do not want to work in the tourism industry, the treatment is low, it is more bitter and tired, and it is difficult to find back after the loss of experienced talents.
I've seen many people around me transition, and this transformation is not easy for many old tourists. Some people have switched from being a tour guide to English training, and as a result, the field of education and training has disappeared, which is more unlucky.
Personal opportunities remain. The pandemic has changed the profession of tour guide, tour guides are still tour guides, but they may no longer be employees of this travel agency, but can go live as KOLs, and travel agencies may cooperate as an MCN agency with such tour guides. After the epidemic, many tour guides in Douyin Little Red Book, making themselves an Internet celebrity, doing some destination introductions, and possibly also doing some goods.
In the field of traditional travel agencies, several listed companies: China Travel Service, Spring and Autumn Tour, and Guangzhou Tour are not optimistic at present. After the inbound and outbound travel is stopped, it is necessary to return to the domestic market, the competition is more intense, the relative profit margin is lower, and the travel agencies and OTAs (online travel agencies, represented by Ctrip, Meituan, Qunar and Tongcheng) platforms that are mainly engaged in domestic business must compete to grab this small cake. But the skinny camel is bigger than the horse, and for small travel agencies, it is indeed a matter of life and death.
If the outbreak is not effectively controlled, it seems that I don't see anyone who will invest in travel agencies at this time. There is no doubt that if the policy is open, it will be a boost to the industry. The demand that has been suppressed for so long is that there is a great demand for business, leisure tourism, MICE tourism, and study tours.
Last year's tourism hotspot event "Ticket Blind Box" was a marketing campaign by OTAs for some young people, and it was a good way to get customers. But the premise of operating this thing is that the price of the ticket market should be low enough to be used as a way to pull traffic in the short term, and it cannot form a real sense of self-help.
I've been working in the industry for 30 years, and I've never been in this situation today. Most people in the industry have a sense of powerlessness, are you saying these people are doing something wrong? As soon as an epidemic came, the order was almost canceled and completely uncontrollable. I don't think that everyone, especially hotel people, can do too much to drive demand growth in the case of repeated epidemics.
Industry confidence is difficult to establish through the industry's own efforts, and the early control of the epidemic is the best stimulant for the recovery of this industry.
However, as long as the industry can recover in the future, as long as the industry has money to earn and has a future, someone will still come back.
Catering industry: The epidemic is a black swan, but the industry has essentially lost to itself and lost to management
Founder of Gahua Capital Song Xiangqian
Two years ago I said, "2020 is the hardest year, but probably the best year of the next decade."
The catering industry should respond to this sentence. On the one hand, the cost of the supply side is rising rapidly, on the other hand, the demand is weakening, and at the same time, it is facing changes in consumption behavior and consumption habits brought about by the epidemic.
The rapid rise in supply-side costs is mainly reflected in: rents are becoming more and more expensive, and labor costs are becoming more and more expensive. Five years ago, the wages in the service industry may be less than half of what they are now, and the employment of the service industry in five years may be more than twice as expensive as it is now, which is the structural impact of the demographic structure, and at the same time, the market-oriented cost caused by the "peak" of production factors such as water, electricity, gas, carbon emission resources, etc., has impacted the cost structure of all industries.
At the same time, people's consumer demand shows a shrinking trend. People are not confident in the future of income levels and per capita income growth, and people used to dare to spend money, but now they have formed a habit of preventive savings, especially under the epidemic. Preventive savings have grown very quickly in recent years, which has greatly squeezed effective demand, demographic changes, aging, low birthrate and rapid decline in fertility levels, which will also lead to weakening of spending power and changes in the supply-side cost curve.
Under the superposition of multiple factors, the era of high Economic growth in China is gone. In this case, (catering) This is a hard-working and rich industry, born at the wrong time and natural disasters, coupled with the slow progress of the industry, the development of the industry is indeed difficult.
Affected by the epidemic, the Guangzhou restaurant of the film industry has been suspended
However, if China's economy is to truly transform successfully, it must also rely on consumption, especially domestic demand must rely on the consumer service industry, the catering industry is one of the most important links, "the people take food as the sky", only the catering industry and modern service industry can consume the employment population on a large scale, relying on advanced manufacturing and artificial intelligence can not digest the scale of employment.
Without the support for the development of consumption and modern service industries, China's economic transformation and economic growth will face unprecedented pressure and challenges, and there is no strategic determination and sufficient fiscal and taxation capabilities to support the development of science and technology industries and support the upgrading of industries to the upper reaches of the value chain.
Today, to be honest, I think the topic of science and technology is overheated, the importance of the foundation of consumer demand and the important role of the people's livelihood system is insufficient, and the awareness of the role of consumption stabilizers and ballast stones is not emphasized enough.
The catering industry is a traditional industry. The official statistics are 4.7 trillion yuan of total economic volume, nearly 60 million people engaged in catering, plus husband and wife shops and uncounted individual industrial and commercial households, I personally think there are 5.5 trillion to 6 trillion economic aggregates, nearly 80 million people employed. In fact, in terms of output scale and employment, it is already the largest industrial sector in the mainland, but this industry is traditional and backward, prevailing "chef thinking", modern management science and modern enterprise system have not yet been fully introduced, and the quality of employees is not so high. The introduction of systematic corporate governance, supply chain science, brand awareness and standardization is just getting started in this industry, not to mention the formation of digitalization and enterprise wisdom assets.
Now many people go to cast ramen, as well as some small products of the small track, in essence, there is still a lack of in-depth understanding of the industry, this industry not only wants to invest in management, investment standards, investment systematization and operation capabilities, to some extent, it is more important to select people to invest,
You don't know how big the impact of the traditional catering industry will face in the future, this is an industry with real life and a turning point, if it is not oriented towards modernization, not towards standardization, it has no big future.
Deserted dining street under the epidemic
We all know that the epidemic is an unexpected factor, a black swan, but the industry has essentially lost to itself, losing to management. Looking at a company like Haidilao, which manages modernly, even if it is such a powerful company, he still has to close 300 stores today. Let me ask (non-head brand), are you Haidilao? Are you tea-colored? The absolute top company is difficult, other companies have not yet completed the modernization, how to win the competition?
The epidemic has indeed changed people's consumption habits, fewer and fewer people are going to the store to consume, and takeaway and pre-made dishes are rising. Behind this is the need to rely on modern and scientific management.
The speculative bubble in this industry is very serious, and most of the capital is not deeply studied, the judgment is inaccurate, or there is no long-term judgment on the future of the catering industry, which is very dangerous.
For an industry to go digital, it must be reverse-enabled through digitalization. The first is to understand the needs of C-end users, the second is to understand the B-end, and the third is to essentially face the problem of improving the efficiency of the whole industry chain, relying on management modernization, and the most important means in the middle is digital operation.
The pain point among them is that the industrial chain of the catering industry is long, the field is to the table, the integration of invoicing, storage, procurement, supply and marketing, it is necessary to sort out all the value chains and value nodes, reengineer the company's business processes, and be able to identify business processes with digital methods - to complete the business online, online business data, data business,
This is difficult, equivalent to deconstructing and refactoring the company, it is an iterative rebirth, but also a kind of phoenix nirvana.
Film industry: After "囧Mom", the epidemic accelerated the transfer of hospitals to the network, but overseas is far more radical than domestic
Poison Eye Editor-in-Chief Wu Yanyu
When the epidemic first came in 2020, Xu Zheng's move to launch "囧Mom" on Douyin caused a great shock at that time. When it comes to the transfer of the cinema network, or the deep cultivation of online streaming media in the film industry, this matter cannot be avoided, and even in the world, it is a pioneering event that is quite tentative.
At that time, there was already a consensus that the window period of the film (in a broad sense, the time interval between the screening of a theatrical film in the theater and the screening on other platforms) was getting shorter and shorter, and the fact that blockbusters went directly to the network distribution would happen sooner or later. But before "囧Mom", there had not been a direct streaming platform for films that were originally ready to go to theaters, which was a feat in the global market. But all of a sudden it happened, everyone felt unreal, unprepared, there would be emotions.
Stills of 囧Mom
Especially at that time, the cinemas were closed, the industry was in a period of greater harm, and the downstream could not understand Xu Zheng, in a sense, he seemed to be a "betrayer of cinema films". In fact, it can be understood after a long time, which is the result of the rational judgment of multiple interests at that time - for streaming media, get a big resource. For the filmmakers, "囧Mom" in that year's Spring Festival file, the odds were not particularly large, unlike today's "Watergate Bridge", for Xu Zheng's team, negotiating a good price with a streaming media in advance is a very smart business act.
From the perspective of the industry, this matter has promoted the development of streaming media to do movies to a certain extent. Today's online and offline relationship, basically has found a balance point, without "囧Mom" (this matter), it is difficult to get to this state so quickly. And not only for the domestic market, but also for the global shock effect.
But then overseas was more radical (overseas epidemics were repeated, and had to try online), while the domestic epidemic recovered better, the offline shutdown time was shorter, and the follow-up attempts were less, but not as radical as at the time.
It took a lot of time in China for Chinese audiences to gradually develop movie-watching habits, but the epidemic has broken the habits that have been hard to establish. Everyone has returned to a state of "movies can be watched or not", and now the cost of entering the cinema will be higher. In such an environment, a clear data trend is that there are more and more super films, and the top few films account for more and more in the box office of the entire box office, and there are fewer and fewer films under 10 million. In the big schedule, good films will be more and more concentrated to more audiences, and bad films will be drowned.
For a long time, the two-eight effect of the film market has been extremely obvious, but the epidemic is still accelerating, and now the market is even the one-nine effect.
If the market is more and more inclined to head films, it must not be a good phenomenon for waist and tail films.
The theater ushered in the 2022 Spring Festival file
Awareness of payment is also a definite trend, but it is too early. In 2020, iQIYI's exploration is very advanced, and some movies of good quality and volume are not small, distributed online by iQIYI, and the audience can spend 12 yuan or 6 yuan or 3 yuan to watch movies online through the way of single film payment, which is also of a leading nature. At that time, iQiyi was still more confident that it could promote a group of audiences, and the awareness of paying for online movies was initially cultivated at that time.
But after two years of exploration, today there is a bit of a "no up" state. First of all, the supply of online quality films is insufficient, and even the current offline supply is insufficient. From this point of view, although online movie watching is a trend of morning and evening, it is not too aggressive to talk about this matter at the moment.
If we say "whose cake was moved" in the online film, it must be the cake of offline theater practitioners. But the downstream itself has its own problems, and the epidemic and onlineization only make these problems more obvious.
Personally, I believe that even without the pandemic, the downstream market should be consolidated. The domestic cinema market can't be so chaotic all the time - there are many screens that really don't produce box office or extremely weak box office, and this situation must change. Downstream itself needs a big shuffle.
In theaters under the epidemic, users wear masks to watch movies
I have observed that some theaters are now not only selling popcorn and Coke, but also beginning to do talk shows, script killing, or combining with some new consumption patterns to broaden their ecological models, which is a process of exploration and widening boundaries from theaters to new consumption, although it has not yet formed a methodology, it is also a drop in the bucket for theaters. But the attitude of this attempt is good, the function of the theater can not be single in the future, and everyone must find a way to save themselves.
In addition to the transfer of theaters, the digital process of the entire film industry is relatively slow. Without high-quality content, all aspects of production, research, investment, production, publicity and development need to grow, and digitalization is a good means. For example, virtual production (a production method that integrates virtual computer images with the performances of real actors, and visualizes the special effects of the picture in real time on the shooting scene), many cutting-edge head practitioners do not know what virtual production is.
Some things that have long been taken for granted in Hollywood, such as some online financial tools that will be used at the production level, have been slow to implement in China. In China, there are even often scenes where the next day's notice was given the night before, and the financial director in the crew often faces many chaotic situations such as suddenly running out of money, where the money is spent, and the account is not matched.
The domestic film industry is very traditional, the resistance is very large, it is difficult to break through every realistic resistance in the production process. How to use and distribute the money of a domestic film is decided by the people in the crew who hold the core power. If you put it on a software to be transparent, it will obviously move the cake of many people.
*Header image source: Visual China
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