On the first day of the opening of the new year, soybean meal opened up and stopped, and soybean two, soybean oil, and rapeseed meal all had a large increase, which was obviously affected by the sharp rise during the New Year in the outer market. U.S. soybean meal rose 9% during the New Year holiday, U.S. beans rose 7%, crude oil rose 5%, crude oil rose sharply because of real energy shortages, and beans are really scarce in the world? In fact, it is not the use of South American beans to fry American beans.
Brazilian beans are not on the market until March, U.S. beans are selling hot, by virtue of the drought in South America to expand the balance sheet gap, a bit of "borrowing chicken and egg" taste, oh no, "borrowing drought to raise water".
Spot condition
As of January 28, 2022, the basis of the main domestic soybean meal contract was 372 yuan / ton. Compared with the previous trading day, it decreased by 40 yuan / ton. From a seasonal point of view, the basis of the main soybean meal contract is seasonally at a historically high level.
South America is dry and production is downgraded
The drought in South America has long been hyped, and there will be light rain in Brazil on Wednesday, and there will be several light rains in the future. South American soybeans due to the dry weather, the production data down, global soybean production, crushing, exports and ending stocks data have been revised down, which is also the main reason for the sharp rise in U.S. soybeans and U.S. soybean meal. And before March, South American soybeans will be in a more critical growth period, and the weather will have a greater impact on yields.
As of the pre-holiday, Brazil's national soybean harvest progress reached 1.7%, up 1.4% from a week ago and 1.4% higher than the same period last year. In Mato Grosso do Sul, where rainfall is scarce, soybean yields may decline. Drought in Parana Oblast is severe.
Ahead of the holiday, Argentina's 2021/22 soybean planting progress was 92.5%, up 5.8 percentage points from a week ago. In the Argentine section of the Parana River, the water level has dropped significantly, reaching the lowest level in many years.
U.S. demand is strong, crushing is increasing, and exports are decreasing
U.S. soybean exports fell short of market expectations, with the squeeze volume being higher in December. As of January 13, U.S. soybean exports for the week were 1.805 million tons, up 77% year-on-year, 6% lower than the same period last month and 24% from the same period last year.
According to NOPA-December crushing data, the crushing volume was higher than expected, soybean crushing was 5.074 million tons, an increase of 3.9% from the same period in November; soybean meal and soybean oil production was also improved, and the US soybean crushing profit increased by 13.4% from a week ago and 209.7% higher than the same period last year.
Domestic inventories are low and the support is obvious
Before the Spring Festival, the downstream feed factories were more active in stockpiling, and the domestic soybean meal inventory declined. In the week ended January 16, the national soybean meal inventory was 346,700 tons, down 29% from the previous week and down 34% from the same period last month.
Due to the end of pre-holiday stockpiling, the downstream pickup volume tends to decline, and it is difficult to give support to the short-term demand side. However, the minimum inventory in the same period of the five years has a more obvious role in supporting soybean meal prices.
The pig inventory is high, the short-term demand support is strong, and the increment is difficult to find
Pig breeding maintains losses, pig enthusiasm is not high, but the basic inventory is large, and the demand for feed is still rigid.
As of the week ended January 21, the profit of pig self-breeding and self-breeding was -300.4 yuan / head, an increase of 30.6 yuan / head from the previous week's loss.
Since the end of the year, domestic piglet prices and pig prices have fallen back again after a slight rebound, indicating that the overall market still presents a situation of oversupply, the market supply is relatively generous, and the willingness to purchase piglets is not strong. At present, after the Spring Festival, the seasonal decline in pork and pig prices is more likely, and the pig production capacity in the second half of the year may continue to shrink due to breeding losses, and the feed demand will not be optimistic.
summary:
Against the backdrop of the interest rate hike cycle on the agenda, inflation is still a continuation, and most commodities are in short supply after the increase in purchasing power, as is oil and fat. The current weather mainly tracks the drought situation in South America and may support pulse prices in the short term. From the perspective of demand, the domestic pig inventory is still high, but the breeding loss may lead to an inflection point in the pig cycle in the second half of 22 years, the increase in the stock disappears, and the possibility of soybean meal rising sharply due to demand in the future is not large.
During the New Year, foreign commodities are in an upward trend, mainly affected by the shortage of commodities, crude oil, U.S. beans have a large increase. Post-holiday soybean meal may continue the bullish trend of commodities, but the end of weather speculation, the start of South American soybeans on the market, and the inflection point of the pig cycle will limit the duration of soybean meal bulls.
■ Part of the data in this article comes from Guangzhou Futures, New Century Futures, wind, for reference only, does not represent the views of the platform and the institution, according to which the risk of entering the market is at your own risk. The futures market is risky, and investment needs to be cautious!