After returning from the year, the price performance of various varieties in the market was surging and surging with the performance of overseas markets during the Spring Festival small and long holiday. At the opening of the market this morning, the chemical black collective force, soybean meal is a high open word board, boosting the market to ignite the sentiment of doing more.
In the chemical sector varieties that have risen sharply, PTA can be described as very loud, and the highest point of the day rushed to 6%, which is exciting for a long time. In the follow-up, how long will the fiery hype atmosphere in the market continue? Is there still room for pta prices?
International oil prices are pressing forward step by step, and the bull market continues to ferment
An important factor that caused such a sharp rise in PTA prices is the help of international oil prices, in the relevant days of the Spring Festival holiday in China, the oil prices in overseas markets have risen gratifyingly, and Brent and other international crude oil forces have risen sharply during this period. From the news side, during the Spring Festival holiday, international oil prices can be described as a succession of good news, which has caused oil prices to rise by more than 4%. Specifically, first of all, OPEC+ decided to raise the average monthly total daily production for March 2022 by 400,000 barrels, while U.S. oil inventories continued to decline, with U.S. crude oil inventories of 415.143 million barrels, down 1.05 million barrels from the previous week, and U.S. crude oil production averaging 11.5 million barrels per day, 100,000 barrels less than the previous Sunday. In addition, many places in the United States encountered serious winter storms, the storm will be severely low temperature in the future, may lead to the freezing of shale oil production equipment, resulting in the suspension of production, in the short term, oil prices can be strong, or maintain an optimistic trend forward, but the space is relatively limited.
Supply is currently stable, and subsequent pressures loom
The PTA supply situation has generally been stable in the recent period of time, but there are still certain hidden dangers. From the perspective of the load of PTA devices and dynamic related aspects, in the relevant data given earlier, it is shown that the domestic PTA operating rate has risen to 78.18%. Overall, the supply side due to Yi Shengda and the recovery and restart of the three-room lane device, the operating rate has certain signs of upward movement, but the overall relatively controllable, and there is no short-term release of device maintenance news, follow-up supply is still possible to move up, we must pay attention to the possible price suppression pressure on the disk surface.
From the perspective of inventory, as of the end of February, the social inventory of PTA was about 3.7022 million tons, up 40,500 tons from last week. The PTA plant inventory is about 4.9 days, and the polyester plant PTA raw material inventory is 7.6 days. Although the inventory has increased to a certain extent but the range is limited, follow-up attention to whether there is a continuous rise, the continuous accumulation of the situation appears.
The demand side is intertwined, and the PTA is waiting for the spear point
PTA demand situation, the first thing to understand is that the downstream polyester in the Spring Festival before and after the maintenance situation is not very obvious, the resumption of work is expected to be better than the same period in previous years, this aspect has a certain boost, but external conditions, overseas epidemic and high sea freight rates still have a certain negative impact on the recovery of downstream demand.
In terms of specific data, the polyester industry output in January was 4.7779 million tons, up 0.30% month-on-month. The average monthly load was 85.50%, up 2.34% from the previous month. Most domestic factories continue to maintain the output state, polyester output level is further improved, while the pre-holiday maintenance situation is not obvious, the output of polyester in the month is at a relatively high level, the overall output is on, so there is a boost to short-term demand, but the degree may be limited, and the follow-up still needs to wait for the spear point.
Combined with the above views, in the short term, due to the sharp upward impact of international oil prices in the intraday market break, a number of varieties in the opening market today have a sharp upward trend, and it is expected that there is still some room for follow-up.
Subsequently, considering that the bearish impact of the supply side has not been completely eliminated, the adjustment of international oil prices will also increase after a sharp rise, the demand performance role has not highlighted the spear point, and the PTA price may rise and fall.
■ Some of the data in this article comes from Changjiang Futures, Zhongcai Futures, wind, for reference only, does not represent the views of the platform and its institutions, and is at your own risk. The futures market is risky, and investment needs to be cautious!