Musk says there will be a financial crisis in 2022#

Musk said that he personally believes that it is likely to be the spring or summer of 2022, the latest but the financial crisis will appear in 2023, coupled with the beginning of the year, the stock market is not very good, many people began to predict the analysis, but predict this kind of thing, whether you are the world's richest man, or an economist, or even a Fed expert, for the future economic development and trend, no one dares to say that they must be right. If anyone can really predict a financial crisis, is this crisis still called a crisis? So what is the use of monetary policy and fiscal policy? I won't predict it, but I can take you backtesting history to talk about what are the characteristics before each round of financial crisis, take the nearest US subprime mortgage crisis, three very significant characteristics, one, the asset bubble is serious, two, the high debt ratio of residents, and three, the slowdown in economic growth. Let's start with the first asset bubble, housing prices in the United States have been rising since the 90s, especially in the most prosperous 2000 to 05 years, the growth rate has been maintained at more than 10%. In the United States at that time, whether you were an entrepreneur, a white-collar worker, or a worker, they all rushed up and strode into the property market. If it's just that everyone buys a house, in fact, it is not a big problem, how much money to buy how much area, there will be no crisis. But the problem is that the leverage of the Americans at that time was very high, it was not like we bought a house and there was a 30% down payment, the bank also had to check your credit, comprehensively consider your purchasing ability, they could buy a house with zero down payment at that time, which was not the most exaggerated, in order to sell more houses, and even the intermediary deliberately concealed the risk of borrowing. Even a homeless man with no income will do everything he can to help him get a loan. So this brings us to the second sign that I said, the debt ratio of residents is very high, and many people buy a house without taking out a penny of principal and relying on loans. Even so, the crisis will not appear immediately, but in 2004, the Federal Reserve began to raise interest rates, interest rate hikes mean that mortgage interest rates have become higher, people with mortgages need to pay more money to the bank every month, the sudden rise in interest rates makes many people unable to pay back, began to collectively sell real estate, and finally the US property market appeared a chicken feather situation. When the economy is cold, the impulse to invest and consume is also cold, and the massive assets accumulated during the economic expansion period are not taken over. So in 2007, the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States broke out. This year, instead of raising interest rates, we have also cut the reserve requirement and cut interest rates to stimulate the economy, and financially we have encouraged special debt to land as soon as possible, and infrastructure projects are moderately ahead of schedule, all of which are the rhythm of steady growth. Musk is an excellent entrepreneur who can harvest retail investors in the blockchain coin circle. But I think the most important thing about investment is trend, stability, security, and now Musk said, if you happen to have a bad time, you will be seated on your own. It doesn't take a financial crisis to beat you, and emotions are the most terrible.