Author | Zhai Yuanyuan
Source | Tech Planet
The top stream "ice pier" also brings up a sinking market that is not new consumption.
Unexpectedly, the "ice pier" became the top stream during the Spring Festival. A blind box on an ice pier was fried for 2,000 yuan on idle fish.
Different from the phenomenon of blind boxes on ice piers, the consumption capacity of the sinking market for the blind box economy is not high, and many cities do not even have special blind box physical stores. There is a serious consumption deviation between the sinking market and the first- and second-tier cities.
First-tier cities, new tea drinking coffee track, Naixue's tea, Xi tea, Luckin and other major brands fighting; blind box track, blind box first stock bubble Mart although the market value evaporated nearly 100 billion Hong Kong dollars, but the blind box economy is still highly sought after by young people, "everything can be blind box" Trend continues unabated.
In the tavern track, young people drank the first listed pub brand In China, Helens, and the financing of low-grade wine brands continued; the script killed the track, and the market size has exceeded 10 billion.
But in the sinking market, there is no Naixue's tea, no bubble Mart, no helens and other taverns, and the script killing business declines.
During the Spring Festival, in the third and fourth-tier sinking markets, we visited the four new consumption formats that are hot in the first-tier cities: new tea and coffee, blind boxes, taverns, and script killing, and found that many brands have opened a strategy to accelerate their entry into the sinking market, but the road to sinking is still a long way to go.
New tea drink: sinking and expanding, the inner volume is different
The new tea brand war has been fought from the first line to the fourth and fifth tier cities, located in the center of the radiation intersection of Handan, Anyang, Liaocheng and Puyang, a fourth- and fifth-tier county town, with a total population of more than 1 million, and the milk tea track is very serious.
Around the most prosperous large-scale shopping mall in the center of the county, within a radius of 1,000 meters, there are more than a dozen brand milk tea shops such as Honey Snow Ice City, Sweet Lala, Yihetang, Shanghai Auntie, Shuyi Roasted Immortal Grass, Tea Advocate, Breeze Nanshan, Tea Taro And so on.
The price of milk tea in different brands of milk tea shops is similar, and a cup is mostly around 6-10 yuan. The highest unit price of Mi Xue Ice City is 10 yuan, and the high-end brands such as Shanghai Auntie and Shuyi Burning Immortal Grass are higher, with the highest unit price of 20 yuan and 19 yuan respectively.
The sinking market started in the City of Mi xue ice city occupies an absolute advantage in the county, the largest number of stores, about 6-7, other brands of milk tea stores are mostly one or two. In addition to the crushing trend in the number of stores, the daily orders and passenger flow of Mi xue ice city also rank first, which can be called the "king of milk tea" in the sinking market.
A Meituan takeaway revealed that the Takeaway Order of Michelle Ice City is also the highest among many brands, and during the peak summer period, a Michelle Ice City store has about 300 takeaway orders, and relatively few winter orders, about 80 orders. Yihetang is similar to the Shanghai aunt's takeaway order, about 50 orders.
The sinking market also recognizes brands. In the above-mentioned counties, Michelle Ice City is not the cheapest milk tea brand, and some lesser-known milk tea brands are priced lower, a cup of milk tea is only 5 yuan, but their business is not as hot as Honey Snow Ice City.
A Shanghai aunt franchisee said that consumers now recognize brands more, and milk tea shops with non-well-known brands generally cannot be opened. "There are several stores, all of which have not opened for business in the sixth year of the first year, and they have lost a lot of money."
The high-end brand return cycle is 2 years, and a county generally only allows the next franchise store of the same brand.
Shanghai aunt franchisees revealed that there was another store to join Shanghai aunt before, but the franchise store did not take long to close, because the high-end brand milk tea consumer population is very limited, Shanghai aunt in the fourth and fifth tier cities of milk tea prices, and the price of first-tier cities is unified.
Her family's Shanghai aunt store was opened for three years, and the start-up capital including franchise fees and decoration fees was invested in a total of 400,000 yuan, and it took 2 years to return the cost.
In the peak season, the store earns about 2,000 yuan per day. Because the store is located in the snack street with relatively high passenger flow in the county, the rent is also relatively expensive, 50,000 yuan a year. "The competition is too strong, around October last year, a high-end brand of books and burning immortal grass was opened on the street, and the milk tea market was saturated."
According to the owner of the store, the annual rent is 50,000 yuan, and the salaries of two employees are about 6,000 yuan, and it is calculated that a Shanghai aunt franchise store is in the fourth and fifth-tier cities, with a monthly profit of about 20,000 yuan.
Most of the milk tea stores in the sinking market are very small in size and have no dine-in space. The Shuyi Yakanigan store has a relatively large space, with about 30 seats in the store, but it also means that the cost of opening the store is higher.
In addition, different grades of milk tea brands, consumer groups are not the same, Honey Snow Ice City consumers are mainly primary and secondary school students, and the consumer group of books and burnt immortal grass is mainly office workers.
Honey Snow Ice City has more competitors, in the county, cottage brands are lined up, the name is also quite similar to Honey Snow Ice City, "Honey City & Love" and "Shangpin Ice City", forming a pinch attack on Honey Snow Ice City, quietly tea, tea propositions and other brands are priced lower, and brands such as Sweet Lala are located next door to it.
Competition in the coffee circuit is relatively mild, with only one chain of "Lucky Coffee" under Michelle Ice City in the county, and other coffee shops being unknown local brands, scattered and not well-known.
The coffee market still needs to be cultivated, and the traffic of "lucky coffee" is not high, and within half an hour, only 6 customers enter the store to consume.
In another sinking market, as a provincial capital city in the northwest region, there are also many milk tea brands, and the competition for new consumption of tea drinks is gradually gluing.
Here, there is no Xicha, Nesher, or even Starbucks, and there is no trace of high-end tea and coffee brands here, but this has not affected the enthusiasm of young people.
The unknown "R&B" in first-tier cities is the hottest rising star here, and R&B tea shops are standard in almost every shopping mall.
There is no tea that xi tea is the main tea, nor is there a natural fruit advocated by Nei xue, concentrated juice, syrup, pigment conspicuously placed on the operating table, the main drink is more yogurt drinks, and large cups.
Even if it is a chain store, the quality is uneven, in the comments of the store, there are many consumer complaints, and even some add some kind of small material, but there is no store.
But this does not affect, in a store at 3 p.m. has been lined up to 400 outside, according to the price of 25 yuan for large cups and 15-18 yuan for small cups, the daily turnover of a store can easily exceed 10,000 yuan.
In the city, the major chain milk tea brands that focus on the sinking market have gradually occupied the position, such as the natural stay endorsed by Guan Xiaotong, the tea hundreds of ways widely laid out in the sinking market, the yuanzhen in the hot southwest region, and the good products that rely on the franchise model, and are still expanding in scale.
The tavern of the county town, the social field of middle-aged people
Taverns, one of the social scenes that young people are keen on, the number of taverns to some extent reflects the youth of a city, the level of night economy.
However, the bistro business is ultimately a battlefield for first-tier and new first-tier cities, and the sinking market does not have a street of Beijing Houhai Bar, no Chengdu pub brand Yima, and no helens, the first listed pub brand in China, drunk by young people.
Searching for public reviews with pubs and bars as keywords, only two stores were found in a fifth-tier city, and neither was in the bustling commercial center.
The only restaurant on the 5th floor of a large shopping mall that focuses on the theme of "good wine is not seen", which integrates bars, restaurants and cafes, and has posted a notice of closure at the end of April last year.
The county tavern business is not easy to do, sinking market consumers, more inclined to the configuration of the pub + restaurant, the pub attribute is weaker than the restaurant attribute. The owner of the "Bistro Tonight" told Tech Planet that they are a clear bar and do not offer catering dishes, but many customers come to the bistro to ask if they can order food.
Unlike the main consumption force of taverns in first-tier cities for young people, the audience of county taverns is mainly middle-aged people over 30 years old, with families and businesses. The owner of the "tonight tavern" said that there are still too few young people in the county, and many of the customers in their taverns are middle-aged people aged 30-50.
The "Bistro Tonight" opened in June last year and has only been around for 8 months. The pub covers an area of about 400 square meters, with 30 tables and chairs, providing cocktails, foreign wine, beer three categories, the price of wine is not high, a glass of cocktail 28 yuan. In addition, the tavern offers a singing function.
The owner said that the rent of their tavern was 70,000 yuan a year, and the decoration cost 300,000 yuan. According to her estimates, the return cycle will take at least 2 years.
Summer is the peak season of the year for the business of the tavern, the daily income is about 10,000-20,000 yuan, November is the most dismal time period, the business is reduced by up to 2/3 of the volume, and the passenger flow during the Spring Festival this year has warmed up.
The county tavern staff is paid 2500 yuan a month, and the working hours are 10 hours, from 8 pm to 6 pm the next day. In order to save labor costs, the tavern owner will personally stare at the store, which is in line with the commuting time of the employees.
Two waiters, a bartender, a boss, and four people working together can create a net profit of 10,000 to 20,000 yuan a month for the tavern.
Compared with the more than 2,000 bars in Chengdu, the "first city of bars", the number of pubs in the sinking market is almost negligible, only a fraction of the former. Of course, it also means that the minus market tavern business may have the potential to develop in the future.
Blind box economy
Under the "ice pier" blind box instantly out of the circle, triggering a boom of millions of consumers rushing to buy, a small fourth-tier city in the north, the enthusiasm for blind boxes is not high.
It has two Wanda commercial centers and 8 large commercial complexes, but there is still no dedicated blind box fashion shop. Even for many consumer goods store clerks, they have never heard of the brand name "Bubble Mart".
But this does not mean that the blind box is not hot, in some collection stores, the blind box often occupies a prominent position in the store.
For example, in the stores of the chain home store "Green Light Party", there will generally be a separate blind box wall. There are also 20 or 30 types of blind boxes, such as crayon xiaoxin, Douluo Continent, Changeable Fat Tiger and other IP. The clerk told Tech Planet, "Young people still prefer blind boxes, among them, the new Douluo Continent can sell more than 10 boxes a day." ”
The unit price of blind boxes in Douluo Continent is 69 yuan, which is not low for small cities with an average monthly salary of only 3,000 to 4,000 yuan. Of course, each store sells different popular categories, and the popular models in another "Green Light Party" store are "LAURA" and "12 Zodiac Signs".
In chain stores that are only 5-6 kilometers apart, it is normal that the popular goods are different. After all, sales are not high, hot categories are not the same, blind boxes are often the role positioning of supermarket drainage or supplementation, and have not become mainstream sales goods.
Therefore, in The Mingchuang Premium and another aggregation store, the blind box is also in the back of the store. The store relies on classic models such as Pokémon and Crayon Xiaoxin to support, the price is in the range of 29-69 yuan, and the lower price is also to attract everyone to taste, and even Yueke e-cigarettes have also launched a smoke bomb flavor blind box.
It is worth noting that although more and more young people like blind boxes and stores are increasing the category of blind boxes, there is not a single blind box vending machine in these supermarkets. It's not that local businesses aren't aware of this opportunity, it's that local business centers aren't very supportive of blind box stores or vending machines.
Everything still stems from the recognition of the blind box as a form of commodity.
Recently, after the Shanghai Municipal Consumer Protection Commission issued legislation on the blind box marketing model as soon as possible, the Municipal Consumer Association of this small city also conducted a relevant consumer survey and visited the stationery stores around some primary and secondary schools.
According to the results of the published survey, the city's consumer association found that some blind box packaging is very large, but there is only a neutral pen inside, and the price of blind box products is several times or even more than ten times higher than the price of simple packaged or unpackaged products, and it is easy to produce "blind box addiction" psychology.
"Think that the blind box is a bit of a gambling nature, this side does not support this kind of business", a merchant told Tech Planet, for the implicit value of blind box IP, the concept of consumption has just been established, so it is always believed that the commercial value of blind boxes > actual value. Perhaps only when young people complete the consumption upgrade of IP, the blind box economy can be a commercial form that sinks the market.
Script kill: In the sinking market is unsustainable
Xianning is a fourth-tier city located in Hubei, with a population of more than 2.65 million people, and is one of the few cities in Hubei Province that has maintained positive population growth. However, the increase in population has not brought higher consumption expectations to the new consumer market, and some local merchants have bluntly said that it is not so easy to do business now.
The same is true of the script that has been attacking in the sinking market in recent years. A script killing business located in downtown Xianning told Tech Planet that last year, except for holidays, there were basically no orders on ordinary days, let alone making money, coupled with the impact of the epidemic, everyone looked at the money in their hands very tightly, and it was difficult to make money.
The script killing store manager told Tech Planet that the cost of opening a script killing store in the downtown area is not low, and the store rent is about 15,000 yuan a month, which does not include labor costs and other expenses.
Overall, the cost of a month is almost around 25,000, the business before the epidemic is still good, and the passenger flow is guaranteed, thanks to the fact that Xianning has two universities, a Hubei Science and Technology College, and a Xianning Vocational and Technical College.
The store manager also said that at that time, it was basically possible to earn more than 10,000 yuan per week, and the monthly net profit was 15,000-20,000 yuan. However, due to the impact of the epidemic, it is difficult for college students to come out, and the entertainment method of locals is not mainly based on script killing, so in the past two years, it has basically been a state of loss.
Although the epidemic is now under control, coupled with the government's consumption vouchers to make the passenger flow have rebounded, there is still a gap from the previous market scene, and it may take some time to recover.
During the Spring Festival, Tech Planet visited several local script killing stores and found that these stores have a certain amount of customer traffic, but some merchants said that the number of people is still small compared with the past.
Through the third-party script killing booking platform can be seen, most of the script killing stores in Xianning preferential group purchase orders are almost 0, and the better script killing store consumption orders are only double digits, if calculated according to the price of a single 40 yuan, it is 800 yuan, it is difficult to maintain the normal operation of a store.
Another script killing store manager said that some of his peers around him have withdrawn from the store, and some stores are like him, adding business such as clearing bars, Internet cafes, and theme bombing on the basis of script killing.
At present, by adding these additional businesses, the net profit can basically stabilize at 8,000 to 10,000 yuan a month, but this is still far from the previous business.
This is just the epitome of the script killing in fourth- and fifth-tier cities. An industry insider said that in addition to the epidemic, "customer outflow" has become an important factor in the decline of business in the sinking market.
Compared with the open attitude of first- and second-tier cities to accept new things and new consumption, people in fourth- and fifth-tier cities are more conservative in entertainment consumption, so script killing is difficult to be sought after by locals as a new entertainment method, so the business of script killing mainly relies on young people, especially college students.
Tech Planet communicated with a number of local college students to learn that they all like to play script killing, and during the Spring Festival, many college students took advantage of the high school reunion to play script killing.
However, due to the reason of the holiday, the time in the hometown is too short, which can not bring stable customer flow to local businesses, and these local college students who like script killing are more inclined to work in first- and second-tier cities such as Wuhan after graduation, so the local script killing stores face "customer outflow".
Many factors have made a hot script killing business in the tide of new consumption in first- and second-tier cities, and it is impossible to adapt to the sinking market, and even the embarrassing situation that is difficult to sustain.
