As of February 1, 71 semiconductor companies have announced 2021 performance forecasts/express reports, of which 66 are expected to achieve positive year-on-year net profit growth, accounting for nearly 93%.
However, if you only look at the performance of the single quarter of Q4 last year, the situation is slightly different. Among these 72 companies, 29 achieved positive growth in net profit in a single quarter, accounting for nearly 40% of the total; 20 Q4 net profit increased year-on-year, accounting for 28%.
In fact, under the large-scale price increase of missing cores that lasted for more than a year, many semiconductor manufacturers made a lot of money last year, and their performance was frequently reported. However, since September last year, the voice of the "lack of core tide" differentiation has gradually risen, and the shortage of display driver chips (DDI) and non-automotive MCUs has gradually eased; and although automotive chips are still tense, industrial chain manufacturers and multinational governments are also making every effort to alleviate it.
Also differentiated are the performance of semiconductor manufacturers in Q4 last year.
Different from last year's semi-annual report and third quarterly report period, most of the semiconductor stocks that have disclosed their performance (forecast) today are within 50% of the Q4 month-on-month change. There is no obvious aggregation trend in the segments of the better-performing companies, which also means that the playing style that was once "betting on the track" may no longer work, and "differentiation" has become a major keyword in the industry.
Figure | the top 10 semiconductor non-equipment companies with the highest month-on-month net profit growth in Q4 2021 (Note: The data in the figure is calculated based on the median performance forecast)
Among non-equipment manufacturers, from the perspective of the month-on-month change in net profit in Q4 2021, Lihewei is far ahead with an increase of more than 20 times; the company's Q4 revenue also achieved substantial growth year-on-year. The company's business is closely related to the smart grid. Although with reference to the past three years, Q2 and Q4 are generally the performance redemption period of Lihe Micro, but in its performance forecast, a number of data still reveal the good trend of its business.
On the one hand, last year, LiheWei's smart grid business achieved revenue of about 308 million yuan, an increase of more than 50% year-on-year, and the revenue of non-power Internet of Things business was about 53 million yuan, an increase of about 3 times year-on-year. As of the end of last year, the amount of orders in hand exceeded 170 million yuan, an increase of more than 130% year-on-year, and this amount was close to half of last year's annual performance.
As for the rest of the company's business, it is not the same. Tianyue Advanced is mainly engaged in the third generation of semiconductor substrates; Silan Micro is mainly engaged in power semiconductors; The main products of Jingchen Co., Ltd. are multimedia intelligent terminal SoC chips; Huawei Electronics is also mainly engaged in power semiconductor business, and so on.
However, many of these manufacturers are trying their best to expand terminal application scenarios and enrich product lines.
For example, after the release of new production capacity last year, Silan Micro has successively made breakthroughs in the white electricity, communications, industrial, photovoltaic, new energy vehicles and other markets; Jingchen shares expanded global market opportunities last year, intelligent set-top box chips and AI audio and video system terminal chip shipments grew rapidly, while WiFi new products to achieve mass production, intelligent cockpit chips have been in the layout of research and development; Aiwei Electronics has formed audio power amplifier chips, power management chips, RF front-end chips, motor drive chips four major product lines, in addition to the Internet of Things, industrial, Automotive and other fields continue to expand.
Among the enterprises with negative Q4 net profit month-on-month, Anlu Technology-U, Shanghai Silicon Industry-U, and Minxin shares fell sharply.
It is worth noting that the three display driver chip (DDI) manufacturers of Fuman Micro, Ming Microelectronics and Jingfeng Mingyuan have fallen in the front. This also coincides with the previous news that DDI is no longer out of stock and it is difficult to increase prices. Ming Microelectronics also "laid a preventive shot" in the third quarter report last year, saying that in Q4 of 2021, due to the global new crown epidemic, logistics and other factors, product production, cargo transportation delivery slowed down and downstream market demand was suppressed, and the demand for terminal products may slow down.
Figure | Semiconductor non-equipment companies whose net profit in 2021 fell by more than 50% month-on-month (Note: The data in the figure is calculated based on the median performance forecast)
As for the semiconductor equipment link, there are currently 5 individual stocks that predict 2021 performance, and 4 stocks rank in the top 15 of the Q4 net profit increase, and only Huafeng Measurement and Control Q4 net profit fell month-on-month.
With the active expansion of global fabs and the iteration of advanced processes, semiconductor equipment manufacturers have also ushered in opportunities. In 2021, the amount of new orders signed by Zhongwei Company was 4.13 billion yuan, an increase of about 90.5% year-on-year; XinyuanWei also revealed that the number of newly signed orders increased significantly compared with the same period last year.
After 2-3 consecutive quarters of brilliant achievements, is there still a shortage of semiconductor production capacity? This is a big question that has been in the minds of industry insiders and investors for a long time.
Based on recent news from all parties, the "lack of core tide" has gradually come to an end. Texas Instruments (TI) said at its january 25 earnings report that in Q4 last year, the company's inventory achieved two consecutive quarters of growth, indicating that the chip shortage is easing. However, the 114-day inventory level is still well below normal water levels, and the company plans to extend it to 190 days.
Wafer foundry UMC also relaxed for the first time at the same day's legal conference, and 28nm may be oversupplied after 2023. Although the company emphasizes that the downstream application of 28nm is large and relatively unlikely, it also adds another layer of doubts to the market.
However, the U.S. Department of Commerce's January 25 report has a different opinion - the department has previously investigated the supply and demand and inventory of a number of semiconductor manufacturers, and now the results of the investigation are finally released.
Its report pointed out that the main cause of semiconductor shortages may lie in production capacity, and the mismatch between chip supply and demand is "serious and continuous", and now the median inventory of manufacturers has dropped from the previous 40 days to less than 5 days, and the situation in key industries is more serious.
The companies surveyed believe that the shortage will continue for at least half a year. More executives believe that the lack of cores will lead to the production of some products continue to be postponed to 2023, and the "semiconductor demand fever" may continue to 2025, and the downstream sectors will be most affected by medical equipment, broadband and the automotive industry.