Sports Big Business No. 2794, welcome to pay attention to the leading sports industry information platform
Wen | Zhuang Tour
Sports big business reporter
On January 27, at the Saitama Stadium in Tokyo, Li Xiaopeng's first official match after taking over the national football coaching whip was the key battle of the round of 12, away to Japan.
The pressure on Li Xiaopeng's body is not insignificant. But the final 0-2 defeat to Japan was not surprising. Although the deployment of the game, the national football team made some changes, after losing the ball early, also tried to strengthen the attack, but the whole game is difficult to smoothly pass the Japanese team half, into the opponent's penalty area, is a true portrayal of the control of both sides.
The Chinese team lost 0-2 to the Japanese team
All targeted deployments, techniques and tactics are pale and weak in the face of a huge gap in strength. The data will not lie, in the technical statistics of the whole game, the Chinese team only has 2 shots on goal, 0 shots on target, and the Japanese team is 16 feet on goal and 6 shots on target. Possession is 63% vs. 37% and corner kicks are 11-to-1. The number of passes (579 vs. 355) and the pass success rate (83% to 68%) also illustrate the one-sidedness of the situation on the pitch.
Japan 2-0 China full field technical statistics
But in fact, the Japanese team is not in the state in this game, not only the passing and receiving of the ball in the front court is frequently wrong, but also the crosshairs who are close to the goal are not online. As Asia's top powerhouse, Japanese fans have long been dissatisfied with head coach Hoshiichi Mori. The lackluster of this game also once again confirmed the limited level of Mori Hoichi's tuning, and japanese netizens had a very low evaluation of Mori after the game, although this was the first time that the "Bao 1" coach had won more than 1 goal in the round of 12. At the same time, the "star flavor" of this year's Japanese team lineup is not as good as in previous editions.
Not surprisingly, the Japanese team will still successfully qualify for the World Cup, but if such a performance is brought to the World Cup, it will be difficult to achieve good results.
The Japanese players are also very sober about this. After the match, Japanese captain Hang Endo said that he was "happy to win, but not satisfied with the course of the game". Jun ito, who frequently threatened on the right side of the Japanese team and scored Japan's second goal of the game, also said after the game, "We created a lot of opportunities, but we didn't score more goals, otherwise the game would have been easier." The Japanese team faced Saudi Arabia and lost to them last time, this time to win and qualify for the World Cup."
But even against the in-form Japanese team, the national football team has almost no chance. Throughout the first half, the Chinese team scored 0 shots on goal, and even 0 touches in the opponent's penalty area...
Chinese football has completely lost
After the national football team lost to Japan, former national football translator Xie Qiang pointed the finger at the leadership: "From winning Japan in 98 to now, the whole game can only rely on set-pieces to shoot two feet; from Li Tie conservatively playing to Li Xiaopeng playing normally, there is no chance." Over the past 24 years, the tremendous progress of Japanese football has completely compared us. In the face of this huge downward line, I could not scold the coach and the players. This is the responsibility of the 'leaders'. ”
The last time China defeated Japan was 24 years ago, on March 7, 1998, when the national football team under Horton defeated Japan 2-0 in the Danas Cup with Li Bing's opening.
In the long 24 years since then, the Chinese team has only achieved a record of 5 draws and 7 losses against the Japanese team, and has no victory. Even more so, it included a rivalry but controversial match such as the 2004 Asian Cup final (japan scored the winning goal with handball at the time). But in recent years, whenever the national football team faces the Japanese team, the gap between the strength of the two sides is always visible to the naked eye.
In the 1990s, the professionalization of Chinese and Japanese football began almost at the same time, but the direction of development since then has been very different. Nearly 30 years after the start of professionalization, in yesterday's China-Japan showdown, the total value of the Chinese team's starters was 8.475 million euros, and the highest value was Wu Lei, who was worth 2.5 million euros.
China's starting lineup against Japan
The starting value of the Japanese team is 44.9 million euros, of which Taku Minamino, who plays for Liverpool, is worth 12 million euros, the captain of the field and plays for Stuttgart, Endo Hang, is worth 10 million euros, and Jun Ito, who plays for Genk in the Dutch league, is also worth 7.5 million euros. On the bench sat Jiu Jianying, who was worth 10 million euros and played for Mallorca. In addition, Arsenal centre-back Kenyang Fuan and Samp centre-back Ma Yoshida, who are worth 25 million euros, have not yet entered the squad.
Japan's starting lineup for the game
Today, Japanese players in Europe are systematic. Even the Japanese Football Association has planned to establish a permanent base in Germany directly, including natural grass fields, player dormitories, and restoration equipment, to facilitate the training and preparation of the national team, mainly players in Europe.
As for the current situation that Japan has formed a European legion, after the first leg of the China-Japan Round of 12 national football team lost 0-1 to Japan, the international Wu Lei, who plays for Espanyol, once posted: "Almost all the players of the Japanese national team are ready to return to their respective clubs in Europe, which is really touching! The gap between us and the asian strong teams is indeed very large, face up to the gap! ”
Frozen three feet, not a day's cold.
Before the game, most people have recognized that there is a huge gap in the strength of the two sides, and after the game, there is naturally less complaints and accusations about the head coach and players on the field. Public opinion is more directed to one word – gap.
However, after the game, the new coach of the national football team, Li Xiaopeng, said very responsibly, "I am fully responsible for the loss of this game, sorry!" "If the other side still has a chance, the Japanese team will have a bigger score."
Li Xiaopeng, who directed the game on the sidelines
Even in the eyes of optimistic Chinese fans, it is difficult to score points in the two round of 12 matches against Japan. And Li Xiaopeng, who was ordered to take over Li Tie in danger, from the beginning of his term of office, the national football round of 12 has gone, and he is powerless. Perhaps the results of the 2023 Asian Cup are the real test for Li Xiaopeng.
Also on 27 January, in another match in Group B of the Round of 12, Australia defeated Vietnam 4-0. This means that Australia is third in the group with 14 points, 9 points ahead of the national team, and 15 more goals than the national team.
World Preliminary Round of 12 in The Asian Zone Group B standings
This means that the national football team has in fact declared itself out, but it still retains the last glimmer of theoretical hope that cannot be counted on. On the first day of the Lunar New Year on February 1, at 20:00 prime time, the national football team will face the Vietnamese team that has been determined to be out. In this campaign, the national football team must take all three points in order to continue to retain the insignificant theoretical hope and not "add to the blockage of the people of the whole country" on the first day of the New Year.
But a few hours later, at 01:00 a.m. Beijing New Year's Day, Australia will play away against Oman, as long as Australia gets 1 point, the national football team will still completely lose the possibility of theoretical promotion.
It has become a fact that the World Cup is about to fail, but the away game against Vietnam has become a "battle of honor", and on the day of the Spring Festival, the emotions of countless Chinese fans are poured out, and there is no room for loss.
After the end of the trip to Japan, the national football team will also rush to Vietnam to prepare for the war. This time, the national football team will face an opponent whose strength is weaker than its own, and it is likely that it will be able to survive the first night of the Year of the Tiger with victory.
The "sports team" model cannot save Chinese football
Since the popularity of the Internet in China, there have been countless ridicules of Chinese football on the Internet – although many of them are originally intended to love deeply and hate deeply. What is often compared with The Chinese men's football team is that in addition to other projects with insufficient professional marketization, there are also Chinese women's football teams in the same project.
At the 2022 Women's Asian Cup held in India, the Chinese women's football team defeated Chinese Taipei 4-0 and Iran 7-0 in two group matches without bloodshed. At the same time, the host team of the Chinese women's football team, India, had a new crown infection in the team and directly withdrew from the competition. The Chinese women's football team has a huge advantage to sit firmly in the first place of the group and enter the top half of the zone.
The Chinese women's football team advanced to the quarterfinals of the Asian Cup
In the group draw of the knockout round, the Chinese women's football team has "received a big gift package" and will face the World No. 32 Vietnam women's football team on January 30, Beijing time. Considering the huge strength gap, the Chinese women's football team will not unexpectedly advance to the final four. According to the situation of the match, the opponent of the Chinese women's football team in the semi-final is most likely the defending champion Japan women's football team - this schedule is quite similar to the recent men's football team.
Today's Strength of Chinese Women's Football Is, to some extent, like the "pre-professionalization" and "primary professionalization" era that some national football fans miss, and the men's football team has been crushed in various aspects of Asia.
Because the degree of professionalism of global women's football has not been high for a long time, in the "sports team" model, China relies on the support of population advantages and often achieves excellent results. However, as the women's professional football leagues dominated by European countries accelerate their closer to men's football, Chinese women's football teams are also losing their competitive advantage worldwide.
The top professional competitions of women's football, led by the Women's Super League and the Women's Champions League, are rapidly increasing their commercial value, and through the profitability of the women's football league itself and the subsidies of the men's football league, they are constantly circulating into women's youth training.
English Women's Premier League
In November 2021, Nielsen Sport expects the Women's Premier League to reach 14.5 million local spectators this season, a figure that will rank in the top four of sporting events in England. Since the 21/22 season, the copyright price of Sky Sports broadcasting the British Women's Super League has increased to 15 million pounds / year. In the next three seasons from the 22/23 season, Barclays' titles in the Women's Super League and the Women's Championship will be worth £30 million – a figure that is difficult to achieve in the top men's football leagues in many countries.
Today is still very beautiful, but sooner or later the Chinese women's football team will also face the problem of how to develop professionally.
Returning to the topic of men's football, the Chinese Super League is already the most commercialized league in China. However, due to the fact that countries around the world are making efforts in the professionalization and commercialization of men's football, it is relatively more difficult to form a comparative advantage.
Even Japan and South Korea, which are often used as references by Chinese footballers, have gone unspeakably well on the road of professionalization of men's football.
Compared with European countries, because football belongs to the "imported culture" in Japan and South Korea, the development of local leagues and youth training, the docking with high-level competitions, and the construction of local football culture are constantly learning from Europe. To this day, there is still a certain gap between the popularity and professionalism of Japanese and Korean football among the whole people compared with countries with the same level of development in Europe.
School football is one of the characteristics of Japanese football. By 2020, there are about 84,000 Japanese football coaches, and there are more than 160,000 registered high school football players for men and nearly 11,000 for women. Chinese professional players plus youth players have just exceeded 100,000. From 2015 to 2016, the registered population of Japanese football has reached the level of nearly one million, while the population of Japan is about 120 million.
Statistics on the registered population of Japanese football 2015-2016
According to the data published on the official website of the Italian Football Association, between 2009 and 2019, the registered population of Italian football with a population of less than 60 million people has been more than 1 million all year round.
Data on the registered population of Italian football for 2009-2019
However, with the aging of the population and the aging and disrepair of youth training facilities, the overall registered population of Italian football has shown a downward trend, and the performance of Italian youth training in mainstream European countries in recent years has not been ideal. For comparison, in the data released by the German Football Association, the registered population of German football in 2020 is about 7.17 million, far more than Italy.
According to the data of the famous statistics website Statista, among the football registered population of the five major European countries in the 16/17 season, the registered football population of the United Kingdom (including the four football associations) is as high as 8.2 million, followed by Germany with nearly 7 million.
If calculated according to the proportion of the registered football population, European countries such as Portugal, the Netherlands, Belgium, and Iceland, which have a small total population, are also not in the ascendant.
Japan's football population, whether in terms of total number or proportion, is at the second- and third-rate level in Europe compared to European countries. This level is also a true feedback to Japan's previous World Cup results, as well as the J-League's global rankings over the years.
Phoenix Sports believes that Japanese football is the benchmark in Asia after the 0-2 Japan match in the national football team, from the youth training system to the league system, Chinese football should learn from Japan in an all-round way, but in fact, the development of Chinese and Japanese football is contrary.
Phoenix Sports listed several differences in the development of Chinese and Japanese football
It is undeniable that the reference significance of Japanese and Korean football to Chinese football today is enormous – even if they should not have been the reference object of Chinese football. From targeting the catch-up of European and South American football at the same time, to being thrown away from the distance and using other catch-ups as an example, the mentality of Chinese footballers has also changed dramatically in the past two or three decades.
The proportion of registered players in the total population is an important measure of the professionalism of a sport. Based on the calculation of about 100,000 football registered population, after nearly 30 years of professionalization, China's football population still accounts for less than one in 10,000. Most of them were made up a few years ago by means of the "Chinese Super League". Ten years ago, China's football registered population was less than 10,000 people.
If Japan and South Korea have already entered the game but have not yet become top players, then Chinese football has been waiting and watching for a long time and still staying at the experience level, and has never really penetrated into professional football until today.
On the professional track, the gap between mediocrity and excellence may not be so large.
But from 0 to 1, from scratch, from point to surface, is the essential difference.
If you look closely at the foundation of The professionalization of Chinese football, Chinese fans may come to a more pessimistic conclusion - the current achievements of the national football team have been seriously elevated compared with the grass-roots construction of Chinese football.
This is due to the hard work of a small number of national players, and from this point of view, every national football player deserves applause.
After the round of 12, the Year of the Tiger still has a long way to go
For a long time, in the perception of Chinese fans, the strength of the Vietnamese team is not enough to pose a threat to the national football team. But in October 2021, the situation changed for the first time.
In the early morning of October 8, Beijing time, Sharjah, United Arab Emirates, the third round of the round of 12, China's game against Vietnam in the first half of the delay in opening the situation. In the second half, relying on the goals of Zhang Yuning and Wu Lei, the national football team once led 2-0, but was pulled twice by Vietnam in 10 minutes. In the 90th minute, the score became 2-2. If it were not for Wu Lei's miraculous killing in the 95th minute, the theoretical hope of the national football round of 12 might have been extinguished long ago.
Compared with the adult national team with strong naturalized players, foreign internationals, and luck, the national youth team has really suffered blows. In March 2019, U18 National Youth lost 0-1 to Vietnam away with the dispatch of Team B, with a huge difference in the number of shots on goal, and a 1-8 ratio of shots.
In March 2019, NetEase Sports Pair
Reports that the National Youth U18 B team lost to vietnam U18
We should not be arrogant and think that the national football team may not be able to defeat Vietnam. But it is worth pondering that after Vietnam began to develop professional football in recent years, the absolute advantage of the Chinese team against the Vietnamese team in the past is gradually fading.
Missing the World Cup in Qatar is not a nightmare. Even before the start of the Round of 40, this was the outcome that most Chinese fans expected.
But in the case of having many fans, professional football can not take root for a long time, watching the close neighbors who are strong or weak approaching and surpassing themselves, but it must be.
If in the early years, China's economy was weak, and Japan and South Korea's developed economy could provide better conditions for football, what about China today? What about our next rival, Vietnam?
Whether it is the professionalization and naturalization of the league, or the study of foreign countries and youth training, in the new year, there is still a lot of homework to be made up for in Chinese football, and it may even be necessary to try to make up for the "homework" of ten years and eight years in one or two years.
After years of defeat in jin yu, he broke the "golden dollar football" but did not get rid of the external strength. Even, when the national team's performance is the only evaluation criterion, Chinese football has already lost all the games. Compared with the long-term low-key and pragmatic development of Japanese football, Chinese football is completely moving towards the opposite side.
The famous commentator Huang Jianxiang wrote on Weibo after the defeat of the national football team: "It is not only these players and coaches in Tokyo who lost to the Japanese team today, just like it was not only the Beiyang Marine Division that lost in the Sino-Japanese War that year: Chinese football completely lost. The saddest thing is that the discerning person can see that this is just one page in the history of football that continues to lose to Japan for the next two or three decades, or even longer, that seems to be headless.
Note: The images used in this article are from the Internet