There is a 21% chance of surpassing Jia Xiuquan! The Chinese women's football team wants to enter the knockout round The key is to see the first game
In addition to missing the 2011 Women's World Cup, in the past seven editions, the Chinese women's football team has successfully reached the knockout round. Four years ago, Jia Xiuquan led the team to a one-goal victory over South Africa, and forced the Spanish women's football team to draw in the final round and get a place in the round of 16.
Four years later, our women's football team is in the same group as the new European Cup champion England Women, the traditional powerhouse Denmark Women's and the dark horse Haiti, and it will not be easy to qualify for the knockout round and match Jia Xiuquan's record four years ago.
01. The first match against Denmark Women: The key match to determine the promotion
a. 46% probability of promotion? The key is the match against Denmark
After winning the Asian Cup, the Chinese women's football team has also ushered in a new peak. This time, Shui Qingxia guided the team to the Women's World Cup, with the goal of advancing to the round of 16.
In OPTA's big data forecast, the Chinese women's football team even has a 46% chance of advancing to the round of 16 and a 21% chance of advancing to the top 8. But in fact, is it really that confident?
From the perspective of grouping, the Chinese women's football team needs to face England, the winner of the new European Cup, and the Danish women's football team, which is one place higher than us in the world, and Haiti, a relatively weak dark horse team.
Especially in the first game of the group stage against Denmark, it will decide a lot of things. If this sonorous rose can remain undefeated, he may be able to get the initiative to advance.
It is important to note that the Danish women's football team is by no means a generic team, having reached the final at Euro 2017 and are a very competitive team.
This time in the European zone of the World Qualifiers, they won all 8 games, scored 40 goals and conceded only 2, and won the main draw ticket by an overwhelming margin.
b. Danish women's team captain Hader: belongs to the top stars
In terms of tactical play, the Danish team has a relatively fast rhythm and impact of offensive and defensive conversion, and attaches importance to physical confrontation and side acceleration and kick-off.
Hader, who is in the center position, is also their captain and the team's number one star. Through her ball and organization, she plays offensive changes.
She used to be the first person in women's football history to transfer until she was overtaken by Walsh, who transferred to Barca in the summer of 2022.
Hader has been considered the best female footballer in Europe for the past 10 years. While at Wolfsburg, she captained three consecutive Bundesliga and DFB-Pokal titles, and after joining Chelsea for a record-breaking transfer fee in 2020, she led the team to three consecutive Premier League and FA Cup titles.
In the group stage of the European Championship against the Spanish women's football team in 2022, Hade received a long pass from the back, she can not only hold the ball as a center forward, but also has strong organizational skills, and the subsequent cross pass to the teammates inserted in the back brings excellent scoring opportunities.
Looking at this wave of counterattacks, it is still Hader who holds the ball in the middle. Her split was given to her teammate on the flank, who shot into the box but was parried by the Spanish goalkeeper.
For the Chinese women's team, there is good news that Hader's good partner Brune missed the Women's World Cup due to injury, and this fierce attacker, who is known for his physical fitness, has staged a single five-son Denko. Her absence will discount the Danish team's attack.
At Euro 2022, the Danish women's football team was eliminated from the group stage because it was in the same group as Germany and Spain. The team's only victory at the time was also the only goal scored by Hader.
They are good at crosses on the wing and heading goals, which will be a test for the Chinese women's team.
It is worth mentioning that the Danish women's football team once played inextricably against the powerful Spanish women's team. If it weren't for the fact that they had to win to advance, I am afraid they would not have been killed by the opponent in the 90th minute, and at least one draw could be obtained from the scene, which also shows that the Danish women's football team is actually not a big strength gap when facing a really strong team, stronger than the Chinese women's team.
02. Face England Women's in the final round: the attitude of the opponent determines the situation
a. If the English women's football team goes all out: the sonorous rose will not be able to fight a battle
The development trend of women's football is that the overall physical confrontation and offensive and defensive rhythm change are getting stronger and stronger, and the English women's football team is a typical representative of it.
They have developed women's football in the past few years, and the standard of women's football in the Premier League has become higher and higher. This has changed the performance of the English women's football team in the tournament from the original qualifying round to the quarter-finals, quarter-finals, and finally the European Championship in 2022. This time at the Women's World Cup, they are also the second favorite team to win the title.
The England women's team is fast-paced, with a focus on long passes and leaps on both wings. Speed and impact are combined, expressed by consecutive crosses from both wings.
Right-back Bronzer nicknamed the "Bronze Lady", she is arguably the best full-back in the history of women's football and an epoch-making representative, having won the Silver Ball Award at the last World Cup.
Through long passes or straight balls, it directly hits the depth of the opponent's defense. After advancing through the ribs or wing, transfer diagonally directly or cross to the off-ball person who outflanks the back point. The attack and defensive rhythm of the English women's football team has changed too fast.
Such a confrontation model, the Chinese women's football team cannot bear it. Facing them in the third game of the group stage, if the English women's team does not advance early by then, or needs to win to secure the first place in the group, then the Chinese women's team will hardly be able to get points.
b. The absence of 3 main players: little impact on England's group stage
Compared with the European Championship winning team a year ago, the Three Lions have fewer three generals: Mead, Kirby and Williamson.
However, Russo, the super substitute on the front line, can make up for the loss, while the Golden Boot Daly, who has scored 22 goals in the Premier League, as well as Reece James' sister Lauren James, and Kelly, who helped the team win the European Championship, can still support the team's "fast and furious".
It can also be seen from the Olympic Games that our women's central defenders are still at a loss in terms of individual recovery speed, so they are successively climaxed by the Zambian women's team.
The England women's team just likes to take long passes to play a speed advantage, and in the tug-of-war, the disadvantage of sonorous roses will be very huge.
In particular, England also have certain advantages when attacking from corners and set-pieces. If they hadn't locked up the first place in the group one round earlier, it would have been difficult for the Chinese women's team to win points.
Even when faced with their rotation, it is difficult to say that they will win. Therefore, if the Chinese women's football team wants to advance to the round of 16, the key is to play the first two games well, and concede fewer goals in the last game to ensure the goal difference.
03. Dark Horse Haiti: It's a fluctuating team
Haiti wins play-offs: somewhat surprising
Haiti, the other team in this group, eliminated Senegal and Chile women's football team in the play-offs, which was a bit of a surprise.
In particular, the Chilean women's football team narrowly defeated Japan at the Olympics, and the Canadian women's football team only lost 1-2 against the champion team. Haiti's 4-0 victory over their African opponents and 2-1 over Chile shows that their strength cannot be underestimated.
From the big data prediction of the probability of winning the championship (which can be used as a reference for the strength of each team), the Danish team is still slightly higher than the Chinese women's team, while the Haitian team ranks 6th from the bottom.
The team is based on France and several players play in Ligue 1. Their strikers are very capable of individual ability, and Mondesille, the first to land in Ligue 1, scored twice against Chile and is the team's number one star.
b. Easy mood swings: The style is similar to that of African women's football
One of the characteristics of the Haitian team is that it is prone to mood swings and ups and downs. Once smooth, they have good individual abilities, and once they fall into adversity, they may collapse directly.
The warm-up match against the South Korean women's team just this month is a classic example. When they were 1-0 up, Haiti played at a good level and pressed their opponents, but after an unexpected equaliser, they suddenly stopped playing and eventually suffered a reversal.
Haiti's goal to break the defense of the Korean women's team is very much like the Zambian women's team breaking the sonorous rose. Long pass at the back, the first point in the midfield is won and the long pass is directly found in front.
The final goal was scored in a 100-meter race. The defenders of the Korean women's football team can't keep up, and our defenders may have a hard time limiting the speed of the opponent.
However, in the second half, Haiti sent a penalty for an unnecessary foul that allowed the disadvantaged South Korean women's team to unexpectedly equalize.
In the following matches, the Haitian women's football team played impatiently. Unnecessary fouls increased, while the defensive end frequently missed.
On the one hand, they sent plenty of set-piece chances to their opponents (the Korean women's team's comeback goal was also brought up by tactical free-kicks), and on the other hand, there were many incredible defensive holes.
This time, the Korean women's football team scored high ball into the box, and there was a 4-on-1 situation in the box, and I have to say that this team is really volatile.
Conclusion:
Compared with four years ago, the total prize money for the Women's World Cup soared to $152 million, more than three times that of four years ago.
The development speed of women's football is getting faster and faster, whether it is a team in Europe, America or Africa, the individual physical fitness and individual strength of the players have also reached a staggering height. This may also be the reason why the Asian women's football team has declined in recent years.