Now in its third year, many countries intend to coexist with the virus and may see COVID-19 as an "endemic disease". "Endemic diseases" are thought to still circulate among the population, but the level of transmission is relatively low and there are no serious public health effects. In other words, the "flu" of the new crown virus.
However, the World Health Organization (WHO) said on Jan. 24 that it was too early to consider COVID-19 an endemic disease as infections remain high in parts of the world.
On 11 March 2020, the World Health Organization declared COVID-19 a "pandemic" – a disease that has spread around the world and affects large numbers of people. The word pop comes from the Greek word "pan", meaning "all", and "demos" means "people".
In contrast, endemic disease — the prefix meaning "within or within" — refers to the persistence of the disease within an area whose spread is more predictable.
Many experts expect that the COVID-19 epidemic will not disappear completely, it will become a endemic disease and coexist with humans in a milder form. Although the conditions for classifying COVID-19 from a "pandemic" to an "endemic disease" have not yet been clarified, many countries, particularly in Europe, have begun to phase out the restrictions on outbreaks with the intention of coexisting with the virus. Last week, Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez called on European officials to treat COVID-19 as an endemic disease as the COVID-19 death rate fell.
Defining COVID-19 as an endemic disease could mean that fewer resources will be available to respond to the disease and that people will receive fewer tests because it may no longer be considered a serious public health emergency. So how far is COVID-19 from a "pandemic" to a "endemic disease"? The Paper (www.thepaper.cn) synthesized various factors with media such as Al Jazeera.
"Endemic diseases" refer to small-scale outbreaks in some areas, such as influenza, malaria, AIDS. A "pandemic" is when a disease spreads to multiple countries or continents and infects large numbers of people, such as influenza A(H1N1) in 2009 and Spain influenza in 1918.
"Endemic diseases" are everywhere, from the common cold to more serious diseases, including HIV, malaria and tuberculosis. Epidemiologists believe that when a disease is predictable, it can be considered an endemic disease. Endemic diseases persist in populations in specific areas.
Comparison of the number of confirmed cases and deaths of different endemic diseases in the world each year: 1 billion influenza cases are reported each year, and the number of deaths reaches 290,000-650,000 There are about 37.7 million existing HIV infections worldwide, of which 1.5 million are new infections in 2020, with 680,000 deaths per year; 10 million measles cases and 140,000 deaths per year; 10 million tuberculosis cases and 1.5 million deaths per year; 130-1.4 million cholera cases and 21.143 million deaths per year. Source: WHO
To discuss the likelihood of COVID-19 becoming endemic, several factors need to be considered, including how the outbreak continues to develop and the type of immunity people gain through infection and vaccination. There is currently no specific data to support evidence that COVID-19 is an endemic disease.
Like all viruses, the coronavirus has been mutating since its inception. Mutations in viral spike proteins, i.e. changes in the genetic code, affect their ability to infect cells.
Omikeron, a more contagious variant, was first identified in November 2021 and is now present in at least 165 countries and territories around the world. Omi kerong has pushed the global covid-19 infection to an all-time high, with at least 100 countries having record new daily confirmed cases since the beginning of 2022. An unknown number of people may have been infected with Omicron, but have not been detected.
WHO predicts that by March this year, more than half of people in Europe may be infected with Omi kerong, which, combined with high vaccination rates, should lead to higher levels of immunity.
When most people in a community become immune to a disease through infection or vaccination, herd immunity is formed, preventing the virus from spreading further. However, as mutated strains become more contagious, herd immunity thresholds increase. As a result, the threshold percentage has gradually increased from 60-70% at the beginning of the COVID-19 epidemic to 85% of Delta strains and more than 90% of Theomecronos.
Herd immunity means that a large proportion of people in the community are immune to a disease, making it less likely that the disease will spread further. Herd immunity threshold: Basic number of infections (R0), meaning that the more people a single individual can infect, the more people who need to be immune to stop the disease.
At the same time, many poorer countries that are still waiting for a vaccine may be a long way from ending the pandemic. According to the latest data from Our World In Data, only 5% of people in low-income countries are fully vaccinated against COVID-19.
On January 24, local time, WHO held the 150th executive committee meeting, WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said that in the foreseeable future, human beings will coexist with the new crown virus, and more mutated strains are likely to appear under the current situation. If countries have full access to all strategies and tools, the worst phase of the outbreak could be brought to an end this year, and COVID-19 will no longer be a global public health emergency.
But Tedros added that this will require all countries to vaccinate 70 percent of the population, reduce mortality, increase testing and sequencing rates globally, and there is still a long way to go.