Covid-19 continues to have an impact The ILO lowered its forecast for labour market recovery in 2022
Workers stack bricks at a factory near Dhaka, Bangladesh, at the World Bank/Scott Wallace.
The ILO's World Employment and Social Outlook Trends 2022 report warns that the recovery will be slow and uncertain as the COVID-19 pandemic continues to have a significant impact on global labour markets.
The ILO report lowers its forecast for a recovery in the labour market in 2022, estimating a global deficit in working hours equivalent to 52 million full-time jobs compared to the fourth quarter of 2019. The last full-year estimate made in May 2021 is expected to result in the equivalent of 26 million full-time jobs missing.
The report notes that while this latest projection is expected to improve in 2022 over 2021, it is still nearly 2 percent below pre-pandemic global hours worked.
The global unemployment rate is expected to remain above pre-COVID-19 levels until at least 2023. The level in 2022 is estimated at 207 million, compared to 186 million in 2019.
The ILO report also warns that the overall impact on employment is far greater than these figures reflect, as many have left the workforce. In 2022, the global labor force participation rate is still expected to remain 1.2 percentage points lower than in 2019.
There are differences in impact and resuscitation
The downgrade to the 2022 forecast partly reflects recent variants of the coronavirus, such as Delta and Olmikeron, the impact on the labor world, and significant uncertainty about the future direction of the pandemic.
The report warns that there are marked differences in the impact of the crisis on different groups of workers and countries. These differences are deepening inequalities within and between countries and weakening the economic, financial and social structures of almost every country, regardless of their development status. This damage, which can take years to repair, has potential long-term implications for labor force participation, household incomes and society, as well as political cohesion.
The impact is felt in labour markets in all regions of the world, although huge differences in recovery patterns can be observed. Europe and North America are showing the most encouraging signs of recovery, while the outlook for South-East Asia and Latin America and the Caribbean is the most negative. At the national level, labour market recoveries are strongest in high-income countries, while low- and middle-income economies are the worst.
The disproportionate impact of the crisis on women's employment is expected to continue in the coming years, the report said. And the closure of education and training institutions "will have a cascading long-term impact" on young people, especially those without access to the Internet.
According to the International Labour Organization, more than 4 billion people worldwide, including many street vendors, lack adequate social protection.
Recovery is slow and uncertain
ILO Director-General Ryder said: "This crisis has been going on for two years, the outlook remains fragile and the road to recovery is slow and uncertain. We have seen potential lasting damage to the labour market, as well as increased poverty and inequality. Many workers are being asked to switch to new areas of work – for example, in response to the prolonged downturn in international travel and tourism, many have had to switch careers to other occupations. ”
"Without a broad-based labor market recovery, there can be no real recovery from the pandemic," he said. To be sustainable, this recovery must be based on the principles of decent work — including health and safety, equity, social protection and social dialogue. ”
The report includes comprehensive forecasts for the labour market in 2022 and 2023. It assesses the recovery of the global labour market, reflects the different approaches of countries to the recovery of the outbreak, and analyzes the impact on different groups of workers and economic sectors.
The ILO report shows that, as with previous crises, temporary employment provides some people with a cushion against the shock of the pandemic. Although many temporary jobs were terminated or discontinued, alternative jobs were created, including some job offers for workers who lost their long-term jobs.
The report also outlines key policy recommendations aimed at achieving a fully inclusive, people-centred recovery from the crisis at the national and international levels. These recommendations are based on the Global Call to Action to Restore People-Centred, Inclusive, Sustainable and Resilient from the COVID-19 Crisis adopted by ILO's 187 Member States in June 2021.
ILO/Sami Haven in Jordan, where the ILO helps national partners improve labour conditions and employment contracts for migrant workers in garment factories.
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