【Hot Events】
On January 20, the central bank announced a 5-year LPR cut by 5bp before market hours, the first time in nearly 20 months, and the one-year LPR was also downgraded. On January 17, MLF and OMO rates were cut by 10bp. The next day, Liu Guoqiang, deputy governor of the central bank, said that "maintaining the steady growth of the total amount of money and credit" and "opening the monetary policy toolbox a little bigger."
LPR double-lower boots landed, bank stocks led the rise of two cities, as of the close of January 20, the banking sector rose high in all 31 Shenwan first-class industries in the market, 10 billion bank ETF (512800) increased by 1.86%, the turnover reached 566 million yuan, the latest estimated size of the fund exceeded 10.3 billion yuan.
Since the beginning of 2022, the cumulative increase of the banking sector has ranked first among all industry ETFs in the market, and the bank ETF (512800) has risen by 6.54% since the beginning of the year, outperforming 29 of all 41 listed bank stocks listed in the same period of A-shares, with a winning rate of more than 73%. Relative to CSI 300% (-2.37%), the excess return is as high as 8.91%, becoming the largest dark horse plate in the opening year!
How to interpret the impact of the LPR cut, how to affect the bank spread, whether the market has expectations, will the bank stock "no pole Tailai" market continue? Let's see the first rapid interpretation of the authoritative institution.
【Latest Views of Mainstream Institutions】
I. CICC:
Today's (1.20) LPR cut is basically in line with expectations. Compared with the pressure on net interest margin, credit cost is the main factor affecting profits at this stage, and the steady growth policy helps to improve bank asset quality expectations. It continues to be optimistic about the bank stocks throughout the year.
The cut had a negative impact on banks on net interest margins of about 19bps, equivalent to 2.0% of net profit. Considering that banks will take the initiative to adjust the asset-liability structure to cope with the pressure on interest margins, and the effect of saving liabilities by adjusting the deposit self-discipline pricing mechanism is gradually emerging, the actual impact of interest rate cuts is small, maintaining the judgment that the net interest margin of banks has narrowed slightly by 2-5bps this year.
2. Guotai Junan:
Commenting on the expansion of the MLF price reduction, he said that this move highlights the policy of wide monetary orientation and heralds the arrival of real stable growth. The downward pressure on the economy is not reduced as the main reason, and maintaining the reasonable interest rate spread of banks, guiding the subsequent loan interest rate reduction and the Fed tightening in advance are the auxiliary factors.
3. Galaxy Securities:
The decline in MLF is expected to drive loan pricing downward, which is conducive to the stable decline in the comprehensive financing costs of real enterprises, which supports credit demand. Bank spreads will be under pressure but are expected to benefit from improvements in the demand side of credit, achieving volume upholstery.
4. Platinum analyst in Zheshang Securities/Banking Industry
Qiu Guanhua, chief of New Wealth and platinum analyst, believes that "do not underestimate the determination to stabilize growth" and "promote the financial system to make profits to the real economy" will not have an essential impact on the bank market. The reasons are: (1) The form of concession is LPR interest rate cuts, which the market has expected. (2) The way to make profits is to reduce the cost of liabilities and the interest rate of assets together, rather than unilaterally granting profits by banks, and supervision has gradually recognized the need to control the cost of liabilities first. (3) The result of the profit is stable growth, which is conducive to the recovery of the principal of bank loans, and the current valuation of the banking sector has broken through the net, and there is no need to tangle with interest.
[Bank ETF (512800) focuses on growth, accounting for nearly 70% of the top ten heavy stocks in the underlying index]
Bank ETFs and their linked funds track the China Securities Bank Index, including 40 listed bank stocks, reflecting the overall market of the sector and avoiding the risk of black swans in individual stocks, of which 70% of the positions focus on china merchants bank, industrial bank, Ping An Bank, Bank of Ningbo, Bank of Jiangsu and other high-growth bank stocks, focusing on growth, investment win rate is higher! As of the close of trading on January 20, the bank ETF (512800) has risen by 4.59% since 2022, outperforming 29 of all 41 listed bank stocks listed in the same period of A-shares, with a winning rate of more than 73%!
【10 Billion Star Fund Managers Add Bank Stocks】
The 2021 quarterly report of the public fund began to disclose that Yau Dongrong, a ten-billion-level star fund manager, increased his position in bank stocks. Changshu Bank has been added to the top ten heavy stocks of its two funds, Name-Ag-Smart Value and Value Quality, with a total holding of nearly 68 million shares.
In the four seasons report, Yau Dongrong also clearly elaborated on the investment direction for the new year. For the financial sectors of large-cap value stocks, Qiu Dongrong said that he is optimistic about regional bank stocks related to the manufacturing industry chain, serving the real economy and having unique competitive advantages, which are stable in operation, have small fundamental risks, have extremely low valuations, and have high growth. 【The world's largest asset management giant BlackRock's latest A-share position exposure: preference for 4 major sectors】
BlackRock China New Horizons, the world's largest asset management giant and the first foreign public fund, is biased towards four major sectors such as electronics, banking, liquor and biomedicine from the overall allocation point of view.
It is reported that the fund holds 6.3404 million shares and 14.1662 million shares of China Merchants Bank and Industrial Bank respectively, accounting for 4.94% and 4.32% of the net value respectively, ranking the third and fifth largest heavy stocks.
Fund manager Tang Hua said earlier that he is more from the bottom up to choose high-quality stocks, fundamentals and valuation are the elements that will focus on analysis. In the individual stock analysis, four points are emphasized: good industry, good company, good leadership and reasonable valuation.
【Bank stock annual performance express report intensive disclosure, profit growth rate is much more than expected! 】 】
As of now, 12 of the 14 banks that have issued performance reports/forecasts have a profit growth rate of more than 20%! (Chengdu Bank disclosed as a range value, which is also calculated for the time being) Key indicators such as provision coverage ratio and non-performing ratio have improved!
Risk Warning: The underlying index tracked by a bank ETF is the China Securities Bank Index (399986 399986), which was established on July 15, 2013, and its historical performance is based on a simulated backtest of the index's current constituent stock structure. Its index constituents are subject to change, and its backtesting historical results are not indicative of future performance. Any information appearing in this article (including but not limited to individual stocks, reviews, forecasts, charts, indicators, theories, any form of expression, etc.) is for reference only, and investors are responsible for any investment behavior at their own discretion. In addition, any opinions, analyses and forecasts contained herein do not constitute investment advice of any kind to the Reader and the Company shall not be liable for any direct or indirect loss arising from the use of the contents herein. The Fund's investments are risky and the Past Performance of the Fund is not indicative of its future.
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