In the history of the world, at least three powerful empires have been established by only two peoples: the Chinese nation and the Persian nation.
The territory of the Persian Empire, note that the Persians are not Arabs
The Persians are very similar to us, industrious, intelligent, attach importance to education, and have a cultural heritage. But one thing is very different, there is no civilization around China that can challenge our civilization, and the Persians are in a place of four wars. Over the past 3,000 years, the Persians have been conquered by other civilizations at least three times, but have re-emerged three times to build powerful empires.
This illustrates two issues:
- The Persians, like Chinese, have extremely strong cultural genes and are not easily assimilated by others;
- The position of the Persians was extremely important, a strategic place.
How important was the geographical location of the Persians?
Many people know kissinger as an important strategist in the United States. But his contemporaries had a master strategist of higher status than Kissinger – Brzezinski, who was known as the Master of American Strategic Conspiracy. In 1997, when the United States was in full swing, Brzezinski published a book, "The Big Chess Game", in which he said with concern that Russia, China, and Iran must not be allowed to form an anti-American alliance of interests. Because these three are the three most important land-based countries in Eurasia, once an anti-American alliance of interests is formed, the United States will be in big trouble.
The location of the three countries of China, Russia and Iraq, forgive Jacko's soul painting
Today, in 2021, under the pressure of the United States, Russia has long become an inseparable strategic partner with China.
At the instigation of the military-industrial complex and the Jewish lobby, the United States has also regarded Iran as the most important strategic enemy in the Middle East.
Mr. Bu's worries are becoming a reality day by day.
So today Jacko came to talk about three questions about Iran:
- Why doesn't the United States dare to fight Iran?
- A 25-year strategic agreement between China and Iran and Iran's leadership in the Islamic world
- What is the value of Iran and the Middle East to us?
- Why does the United States dare not fight Iran
The interior of empires was generally not monolithic. There is a group of people in the United States who have always wanted to fight Iran.
There are at least three major lobbies that influence U.S. policy in the Middle East:
- Military-industrial complex
- Energy Group
- Jewish group (overlaps above)
As long as Iran is hit, the military-industrial complex raises its hands to support, after all, the cannon sounds, gold is twice; after the fight, can Iran's oil resources be purchased at a low price? As for the Jewish group, the Iranian government has said, "Israel should not exist as a country", and the relationship between the Jewish group and Iran, you feel it.
Under the influence of these three groups, the United States has almost gone to war with Iran twice in the past decade.
The first was in the Obama era, before the Iran nuclear deal was negotiated. Mr. Obama later recalled that he, under the persuasion of his subordinates, nearly ordered war on Iran. Later, when he calmed down, he realized what these subordinates wanted to do.
The second time is the Trump era. After the United States bombed the leader of the Holy City Brigade, Suleimani, in 2020, the relationship between the United States and Iran fell to a freezing point. Trump just said after the bombing that the attack ended here, and the United States did not want to go to war with Iran. But Iran can't give up, the country's top leaders have been directly killed, if you don't retaliate, no little brother will be willing to mix with you in the future. So Iran also retaliated by attacking U.S. military bases, and then different voices within the United States came. Trump later said that many subordinates at the time asked him to launch an all-out attack on Iran.
Under repeated persuasion from subordinates, Trump almost ordered an all-out attack. As a result, at the last moment, Trump suddenly realized the problem and quickly ordered the cancellation of the attack.
Later, Trump did not forget to boast about himself: "I stopped World War III!" ”
Jacko thinks Trump should say, "Those guys want to destroy America!" I stopped them because that was Lao Tzu's job! ”
Why doesn't the United States dare to do it?
If the United States were to do something to Iran, there were no more than two ways to play:
- Send ground troops to fight
- Air strike + coup
First of all, Americans certainly don't want to, because it's too expensive.
There has always been a saying that the fiscal situation in the United States is only one local war away from collapsing.
Some people asked, the Iranian army's weapons and combat effectiveness are average, when Saddam Hussein was so good, the United States will be able to get it done in a few weeks.
First of all, Iran is the most powerful country in the Middle East and has a relatively complete industrial system. Moreover, the northeast is close to the sphere of influence of a certain big country, and it is really necessary to start a fight, and the blood transfusion is called a convenience. How many new weapons and equipment can be used for actual combat exercises? And is it the most important hypothetical enemy eagle sauce? Don't have to make your own? A certain big country is estimated to wake up with laughter.
That's right, it's Russia.
Even if the eagle sauce peels off a layer of skin to finish the battle, the subsequent maintenance and reconstruction in Iran, that is the big head.
The United States fought Afghanistan, 20 years, spent $2.26 trillion (Brown University War Expenditure Statistics, the same below); hit Iraq, about 10 years, $1.13 trillion.
Iran's national strength is far superior to Afghanistan's, and if the United States really wants to enter Iran, you can imagine how much it will cost.
The financial situation in the United States has deteriorated to a certain extent, and it has to borrow money to pay interest. A man who tightens his belt, if he still wants to borrow money to enter the casino, imagine what the result will be.
So what about the second kind, just air raids?
This is the situation that Iran fears the most, and it is also a situation that we will not stand idly by.
The routine of the US empire will be like this:
First air strikes, destruction of nuclear facilities, oil facilities, missile bases, etc.;
Then the opposition that has been nurtured in Iran for so many years appears, triggering a coup or civil war;
Sanctioned for years, Iran has been infiltrated by the CIA and the Mossad like a sieve, otherwise there would be no Sulaimani thing.
Air raids + coups are indeed the cheapest and most effective method.
How could China and Russia not think of what the United States wanted?
So let's pay attention to the joint military exercise between China, Russia and Iran in 2022.
On January 18, 2022, the Russian Pacific Fleet announced that China, Iran and Russia will hold joint military exercises at sea
The meaning is clear, if there is something wrong in Iran, the two bosses will not sit idly by.
What a rare opportunity to fight in real combat, new main battle tanks, drones, missiles can be arranged. It is also possible to test the actual combat effect of our hypersonic missiles.
There is also our latest Type 15 main battle tank, which can adapt to border plateau operations and specialize in all kinds of disobedience. This top configuration, India should not be eligible to experience, I don't know if Eagle Sauce is interested in experiencing it.
The Dongfeng 17 hypersonic missile, which is basically untackable, is known as an aircraft carrier killer
As long as the US air strikes do not achieve the desired effect, Iran will organize an effective counterattack.
The United States has allies in the Middle East, most importantly Israel and Saudi Arabia. Both of them are Iran's feuds, and once the war starts, Iran will not spare its subordinates. Israel can still fight a little, the Saudi princes are too rich to be willing to fight with you. As soon as the war begins, will Iran blockade the Persian Gulf and will it engage In Saudi Arabia? If the United States is to protect Saudi Arabia, it must deploy ground forces. And once the ground troops are dispatched, it is back to the first situation.
Chinese, Russian and Iranian military exercises
Jacko: "Do you know why this place is called the Persian Gulf?" Because the Persians can seal off this bay with a word, it is called the Persian Gulf. ”
The conclusion is that as long as Iran is fought, it must be a huge military expenditure.
American taxpayers' money is spent, but the military-industrial complex's money is really being collected.
Here we also refer to the so-called freedom of speech in the United States. Jacko can say bluntly here, it is Lockheed Martin, Boeing, Thor, you military-industrial complex, constantly through the war, to transfer the money of the American taxpayers into the pockets of you and the members of Congress that you control. How many mainstream media people in the United States dare to say this?
In fact, smart people in the United States can see it, but they dare not say it.
This is American freedom of speech.
2. A 25-year China-Iran Strategic Agreement with Iran's Leadership in the Islamic World
Jago believes that Iran is the most likely country to become the leader of the Islamic world.
The core cause of the chaos in the Islamic world in the Middle East is the lack of core leadership. There are 6 middle powers that have the opportunity to become leaders, respectively
- Saudi
- Egypt
- Turkey
- Pakistan
- Iraq
- Iran
But each has its own bugs.
The core problem with Turkey is that it is a secular state, and even if it is strong, the Islamic world, which is dominated by religious states, will find it difficult to convince you.
Egypt recaptured the Suez Canal after World War II, especially under Nasser's leadership, and was a solid arab world leader. Gaddafi Dazo has always regarded Nasser as an idol. But the Arab Spring was maimed after that.
Iraq had the potential to become a leader during Saddam's time, but as a result, everyone saw it, and it was crippled by two Iraq wars. You don't need a reason for the whole thing in the United States, and laundry detergent can be a reason if you need it.
The main bug in Pakistan is India. When you have a three-brother by your side who threatens your survival with nuclear weapons, it is difficult for you to lead the Middle East.
Saudi Arabia has not been threatened by war for so many years, and its economic strength is very strong. But the main problem is that the military is too dependent on foreign countries. Without the support of the United States, let alone the two big men in Iraq and Iran, even Yemen next to it is uneven. In the Middle East, a land of tigers and wolves, countries with strong economies and weak military forces can only be covered by big brothers, and they cannot be big brothers themselves.
Finally, Iran, with a population of 80 million, 1.64 million square kilometers of land (the size of 4 Japans), oil and gas reserves in the forefront of the world, industrial strength in the Islamic world is second to none, or ancient civilization, has its own social and cultural system.
As long as it does not go to war with the United States, Iran will most likely be the most comprehensive country in the Middle East. Iran's only bug is that he is a minority (Shiite) in the Arab world, with nearly 2 billion Muslims worldwide, and Shiites account for less than 200 million. With the idea that "peers are the biggest competitors," Iran needs some means to return to its sunnis.
But the Persians did not lack the means.
Do you know why Iran was Shiite back then? When Persia was included in the Arab world, a small number of Shiites were chosen to disgust the Arabs. Because in the eyes of the Persians, the Arabs are a group of upstarts who raise sheep and camels, and the ancient civilization of Persia must be different from you.
The Arabs were all in the Tuhi style in the early days, and after Persia joined the Arab world, the culture, art, literature, etc. of the Arab world flourished.
Do not underestimate the Persians. Although they do not have the continuous historical inheritance of China, they are at the intersection of Eastern and Western civilizations, and they have a very good set of ways to deal with foreign civilizations.
If there is a war, it will be a disaster for the United States, and it will be a disaster for Iran. So in any case, Iran is not willing to go to war with the United States.
Against the United States, Iran has one trick: drag.
Iran knows that the United States intends to withdraw from the Middle East, and it also knows that the United States does not dare to go to war with itself. As long as the United States is gone and the sanctions are lifted, then the middle of the Middle East is a place where the sea is wide and the fish leaps, and the sky is high and the birds fly.
This is a routine that Iranians also understand
3. What is the value of Iran and the Middle East to us?
The Sino-Iranian strategic cooperation agreement has been discussed since 2016, why did it wait until 2021 to sign it?
Because Iran's first choice is not actually China.
Until 2018, Iran's largest trading partner was Germany. For many years, Iran has been hoping to establish good relations with Europe and develop economic and trade with Europe.
Iran wants European support, but Europe is too closely bound to the interests of the United States to fully support Iran. Originally, in the Obama era, when the Iranian nuclear agreement was signed, Europe made a lot of investment in Iran. But as soon as Trump reinstated sanctions, Europe had no choice, and the money was all there. Who would dare to invest at this time?
Only China.
Some people say that since Iran's first choice is not us, should we not pay so much attention to Iran?
That's childish. In the international community, no one can say what the process is, the most important thing is the result.
Cao Cao can still tolerate Zhang Xiu (killed Cao Cao's eldest son Cao Ang), why can't we tolerate Iran?
The three most important points of the China-Iran strategic agreement:
- China will invest $400 billion over 25 years to help Iran build, including banks, railways, healthcare, technology and more
- Iran would give China a huge discount on the price of oil, and the oil would be settled in renminbi
- Strengthen China-Iran military cooperation, including joint training, weapons research and development, and intelligence exchange
Each of these is directed at the United States. We have so many dollar reserves in our hands that we should help Iran build instead of buying U.S. Treasuries to depreciate. Oil is settled in renminbi, bypassing the supervision of the US dollar, and the internationalization of the renminbi has taken another important step. The two sides have stepped up military cooperation and waited to see how many top weapons with Chinese instructions would be in Iran's arsenal.
This is the saying, throwing a total of cool, always investing in the co-operative has always been cool.
Thank you, Comrade Trump, for helping us put together the last piece of the puzzle of the big chess game.
Of course, the implementation of the Sino-Iranian agreement will not be smooth sailing, and there are many opponents bought by the United States in Iran (which country is not?). They will certainly have all kinds of obstructions. This is also our rare mobile phone training meeting, which can test and enhance our diplomatic skills and strategic determination.
The issue of Iran should be looked at in the big chess game of the Middle East. We are not going to replace the United States, we are going to change the rules of the game in the Middle East.
What is the core contradiction in the Middle East? It is the contradiction between the pursuit of peace by the countries of the Middle East and the chaos that the United States wants in the Middle East.
In the chaos of the Middle East, no regional power can resist the United States, and the oil hegemony of the United States can be maintained. Once the Middle East is at peace, the population, size, and economic strength of the Arab world will surely become an important pole in the world. At that time, the position of the United States will be challenged, and the power of the Arab world will crush Israel. So the United States wants the Middle East to continue to be chaotic.
The greatest weakness of the United States lies in its core interests, which are inconsistent with those of the peoples of the Middle East. One wants chaos, one wants peace.
Our greatest advantage is that we are aligned with the core interests of the peoples of the Middle East. As long as the Middle East is peaceful, the rabbit family's infrastructure demon advantage can be brought into play, rebuilding the Middle East, and everyone earns a small amount of money together.
But moral superiority alone is not enough, there must be strength and action.
Internationally, we have to speak for ourselves
In 2021, we released a comprehensive Middle East policy, clearly giving a "China plan" to achieve peace in the Middle East. Jacko studied it carefully, extremely deeply, very bullish. The plan has 5 points, and Jacko summarized it:
1. Mutual respect, Middle East model, Middle East characteristics, Middle East road
"To change the traditional thinking, we should not blindly look at the Middle East from the perspective of geopolitical competition, but regard the Countries of the Middle East as partners, development partners and partners for peace."
This means that the people of the Middle East should be allowed to choose a development route that suits their national conditions, and countries outside the region should not always think of imposing their own national institutions here, the Middle East is the Middle East of middle easterners.
The world has been suffering for a long time, and the Middle East has borne the brunt of it. Now China dares to stand up and say that it respects and supports the choices of the people of the Middle East, which is a slap in the face of the United States.
2. Fairness and justice
"The most prominent sign is the solution to the Palestinian question and the implementation of the 'two-state solution.'"
Let's say, we are not seeking geopolitical interests in the Middle East, and China is not here to replace the United States.
As mentioned earlier, the purpose of the US lobby is to serve its own selfish interests and hope that the Middle East will continue to be at war, so the US Middle East policy cannot be fair and just, and it must be biased in favor of Israel.
The core strategy of the United States in the Middle East is to maintain the hegemony of the petrodollar. And we don't have such an appeal, the only purpose is to develop together, to make money together.
"China will continue to invite Palestinian-Israeli peace figures to china for dialogue, and welcomes the Palestinian-Israeli negotiators to hold direct talks in China."
We will invite Palestine and Israel to come to China for talks, which is the beginning of our direct entry. Only by resolving the Palestinian-Israeli issue can there be hope for peace in the Middle East.
We're not going to collect our little brother, we're going to find friends.
Back to Iran, Iran is a civilization and the most likely country in the Middle East to have a high probability of the future. Our purpose is to help it develop, not to make it our little brother. Because you can't let a civilization become your little brother.
3. Achieve nuclear non-proliferation
It is hoped that the true denuclearization of the Middle East will no longer be under the shadow of nuclear weapons.
This is where the more sensitive issues are addressed, Israel.
Israel is a de facto nuclear-armed State.
Iran once said that the state of Israel should not exist. In an environment of formidable enemies, it would be unrealistic for you to ask Israel to give up its nuclear weapons.
In a state of hostility, if one party has a mushroom egg, then the other party will definitely desperately try to get a mushroom egg. Just refer to the two major powers of South Asia. In the long run, is it necessary for every country to do it? Of course not.
Therefore, the goal of nuclear non-proliferation must be set.
What about the means of implementation? That's Article 4 below.
4. Jointly build collective security
"Promoting security and stability in the Middle East requires a balance between the legitimate concerns of all parties. Gulf countries should be promoted for dialogue and consultation on an equal footing, mutual understanding and care, and improvement of mutual relations. It is necessary to resolutely combat terrorism and promote the process of de-radicalization. China proposes to hold a multilateral dialogue meeting on Gulf security in China, starting from issues such as ensuring the security of oil facilities and waterways, to explore the building of a trust mechanism in the Middle East and to gradually build a common, comprehensive, cooperative and sustainable Middle East security architecture."
To put it bluntly, we must want Israel to respect the Arab world, but also the Arab world to fight terrorism and de-radicalize.
Reconciliation and peace are to be achieved in Israel and the Arab world. Moreover, China is willing to hold a multilateral conference on security in China, starting with the oil facilities issue that the Gulf countries are most concerned about.
The ultimate goal is to bring peace to both Israel and the Arab world, and in the absence of bilateral trust, China will take the lead, starting with the most concerned issues and resolving them step by step. "Don't blow up the oil fields with each other, okay?"
It not only proposes goals, but also gives a plan to break the game.
5. Accelerate development cooperation
"Long-term peace and stability in the Middle East requires development, cooperation and integration. It is necessary to unite to defeat the epidemic and achieve economic and social recovery as soon as possible. It is necessary to combine the different resource endowments of Middle Eastern countries to help post-conflict countries carry out reconstruction, support the diversified economic growth of oil-producing countries, and help other Middle Eastern countries develop and revitalize. China is willing to continue to hold the China-Arab States Reform and Development Forum and the Middle East Security Forum and strengthen the exchange of experience in governing the country with Middle Eastern countries."
The people of the Middle East all want peace and development. We can not only provide funding, infrastructure, but also share the experience of governing the country.
This is something that the United States cannot do. The three major lobby groups in the United States are always thinking about how to squeeze more value from the Middle East.
Our win-win is called everyone making money together and winning together.
And the win-win situation for the United States is called the United States win twice.
summary
China's 5 Middle East policies are lofty and simple, each of which is a clear card, going straight to the core interests and core demands of the people of the Middle East.
The realization of our Middle East strategy will not be achieved overnight, and there will certainly be detours and twists and turns. But as long as the strategy is right, all that remains is a contest of strength, time and patience.
The most awesome strategies are all yang plots.
When Chairman Mao wrote "On Protracted War," he directly told Japan that we would rely on the advantages of time, space, population, and resources to consume your temporary military superiority and eventually defeat you.
Even if the opponent knows your strategy, there is nothing they can do about you.
Reinforcements from Datang
Three thousand years ago, the Persians had already conquered the west and established a brilliant civilization.
Persian Empire
Even in today's war-torn Middle East, they still have not lost the background of their own civilization.
Such a civilization does not need other countries to teach her how to do it.
The United States, which is only three hundred years old, is not qualified to teach persians to do things.
What we should do is help her, support her.
The Persians, like us, were industrious, wise, brave, and could tell who was their friend.
Fifteen hundred years ago, the Persian prince Bilus asked for help from datang, who set up the Persian governor's palace in Zabole, Iran.
Later, it was attacked by the enemy country, because it was thousands of miles away, and the reinforcements of the Tang Dynasty could not arrive.
After Prince Bilus defected to Chang'an, he was treated favorably by Emperor Gaozong of Tang and was promoted to the rank of general of Right Wei.
Fifteen hundred years later, the Persians, faced with a formidable enemy, once again turned to us.
This time, Datang's reinforcements will not be late.
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@Pengcheng Jiege