From the perspective of annual observation, let's discuss how the business form of live e-commerce will evolve in 2021. What possible path has been seen?
In April 2016, Taobao Live was officially launched. As a result, live broadcasting has entered the tide of consumption from the show, and the live broadcast with goods has set off a terrifying wave under the impetus of the new crown epidemic.
Until the 6th year of development, it was regulated to press the wave in order to "thin water and long flow".
However, in any case, the market position of live e-commerce will not be shaken in the short term and even in the medium and long term.
So in this article, from the perspective of annual observation, we want to explore, how will the business form of live e-commerce evolve in 2021? What possible path has been seen?
· Live streaming, barbaric growth under the Matthew effect
· Tail big can not fall, platform and super head anchor of the elbow and anti-elbow
· Xiao He's law, the love-hate relationship between brands and super-head anchors
· Back to the throat, the key price control in the live broadcast room
· Come to Japan for a long time, 2021 live broadcast selling new strong tone
01
Live streaming of savage growth under the Matthew effect
What is top stream?
If the time can be rewinded, back to the first Taobao live broadcast on May 21, 2016, Wei Ya would not have imagined that she would one day be fined 1.341 billion yuan for tax evasion and tax evasion of live streaming, which is equivalent to 1.516 ice (Fan Bingbing: 884 million) and 4.48 shuang (Zheng Shuang: 299 million).
Simba, a post-90s northeastern boy who only settled in Kuaishou in 2016, would not have thought that one day he would have 9550.7w fans on Kuaishou, more than 2 times the total population of his hometown Heilongjiang Province (National Bureau of Statistics data: as of May 11, 2021, Heilongjiang's population in the seventh census was 31850088 people).
Of course, Li Jiaqi at the beginning of 2017 could not guess that the live broadcast room, which was only watched by a few hundred people at that time, could welcome 49 million + people in a single session one day.
Luo Yonghao in 2018 would not have expected that the 600 million debts owed by Hammer Technology would be basically repaid in early 2022, relying on his own identity as a "first-generation Internet celebrity" to "sell" live streaming goods.
The greatest storm in life will be nothing more than this, and the so-called top glory will be nothing more than this.
Interestingly, the same is Double 11:
A beauty merchant who landed on Li Jiaqi's live broadcast room on the same day was still lamenting the wonderful experience of the inventory being sold out in one second, and was surprised that the number of viewers in the live broadcast room exceeded 200 million.
Another merchant who chose to be self-reliant closed his notebook early, closed his eyes, and ended the so-called annual promotion that the platform only gave 700 UVs.
Under the Matthew effect, "Bengbu lived" not only merchants, but also anchor circles.
On the day of the launch of the "Double 11" in 2021, that is, on the morning of October 21, the Taobao anchor sales list showed that the final sales of Li Jiaqi's live broadcast reached 10.653 billion yuan, The sales of Weiya live broadcast were 8.252 billion yuan, the sales of the "millennium old third" Sydney live broadcast were only 930 million, and the sales of lieer baby, which ranked fourth, were even less than 200 million.
"Run with you! It is that others set up the stage, the protagonist sings, takes the 'sky-high film remuneration', we put together a group performance, and receive a 'bento'. At two o'clock in the morning, an anchor who had just been broadcast in Jiubao, Hangzhou, was lost to the fill light.
This is not a one-man loneliness, but a bleak microcosm of an industry facing the top stream. It's just that there is no shortage of "gamblers" in this industry, rushing into it, fighting without belief, believing that one day it will become 20% of the 80% profit in the Two-Eight effect.
02
The tail is too big to lose the constraints and counter-constraints of the platform and the anchor
To a certain extent, this is what the platform is happy to see, and if it wants to prosper ecologically, the platform needs to have a super-head anchor as an anchor to attract the attention of the market and write a legendary script to cause imitation. In a way, Li Jiaqi is one of the lucky anchors.
In 2017, Taobao Live, which was in the business exploration period at the time, had the heart to support the male anchor and gave Li Jiaqi, who was still a newcomer to live broadcasting at the time, a 3-day traffic recommendation. Watching the number of viewers in the live broadcast room from 2000 to 20,000, it doubled 10 times that day, and rose to 50,000 the next day, just like being injected with a dose of soul soup, Li Jiaqi, who wanted to give up live broadcasting, had the motivation to continue. Then there is the "lipstick brother" and the king's road of Taobao live broadcast brother.
Taobao held out a sister Wei Ya, a brother Li Jiaqi, on that side, Douyin also pulled the "first generation of Internet celebrities" Luo Yonghao to do the table, in 2020 April Fool's Day a hit, Kuaishou added a simba.
It's just that there are two sides to the coin, and the other side of "shop cheater" is "big cheat shop".
In April 2019, Simba and Sanda Brother launched a scolding war around "Kuaishou Yi brother", and Simba directly shouted Kuaishou to "polish his eyes";
In April 2021, Simba, who had been replaying for less than a month, connected the live broadcast room of the apprentice egg late at night, saying that he was "defeated by capital, defeated by traffic, and defeated by some platforms", and said that "the subject has retreated";
During 618, Simba once again scolded in the live broadcast room, accusing Kuaishou of restricting its stream;
In late December, Simba and his apprentice ShiDamei sued Kuaishou, in the name of "Network Infringement Liability Dispute";
……
The contradiction is not two or three days, but the reason behind it is nothing more than the word "traffic".
Simba built a family-style live broadcast matrix in Kuaishou, and the anchors diverted each other, cultivating dozens of anchors with tens of millions of fans under it.
In May 2021, Zhang Xinshu, a commercial e-commerce marketing operation center of Kuaishou, revealed in a public speech that 80% of the live broadcast tip revenue and 70% of the e-commerce revenue of the Kuaishou platform are obtained through private domain space, and the average repurchase rate of private domain is as high as 65%.
The intervention of Kuaishou is inevitable. For the platform, the value of the private domain is a plus, but the prosperity of the private domain lies in the symbiosis of diversity. The behavior of the Xinxuan family class to take the flow and build traffic barriers not only squeezes the living space of independent anchors, but also affects the diversity of the platform content ecology.
Kuaishou's countermeasure is to change traffic rules and launch traffic support plans to adjust the existing anchor pattern on the one hand, and on the other hand, to release marketing tools such as Magnetic Taurus to achieve rapid influx of private domains in the public domain, and also to reduce the dependence of platform revenue on anchors with goods by virtue of the growth of online advertising and marketing business.
According to the "2021 Second Quarter Financial Report" released by Kuaishou, Kuaishou Q2 revenue was 19.138 billion yuan, an increase of 48.8% year-on-year, of which online marketing services accounted for 52.1%, which has surpassed the live broadcast business, and the number of Kuaishou brand advertisers also increased by nearly 4 times compared with the same period last year.
Some commentators have commented that at present, Simba can't do without Kuaishou, and Kuaishou can't give up Simba.
After all, for Simba, traffic is a bargaining chip with the supply chain, compared to Kuaishou's more than 90 million fans, 363.1w of Douyin, 141.8w of Weibo are like small witches, even if there is a determination to start from 0, do not dare to easily break the back road.
Simba's response was to retreat into advance.
From New Year's Day 2022, Simba himself began to be active on Douyin, which is Simba's unwillingness and a new way for the family, but the base camp will not be abandoned. In 2021, Simba personally turned his apprentice egg into a sister of Kuaishou. In October, the single monthly delivery of eggs and eggs was 3.4 billion, which ranked in the top three in the data of the whole network in the month.
Kuaishou live broadcast wants to "go to Simba" but can not do "de-Xinhua", Xinxuan family is Simba's bottom card in Kuaishou, and this is also one of the reasons why Kuaishou repeatedly banned Simba and rebroadcast, want to continue to catch up with Taobao and Douyin in the hot land of live broadcasting, and Kuaishou also needs top streaming.
03
Xiao He's law Brands and anchors love and hate
To some extent, live streaming has completed a new round of improvement in brand costs.
Not only has the cooperation with celebrities extended from endorsement to a new model of live streaming with goods, but the market launch has also advanced from not being able to evaluate the conversion to ensuring GMV, and even can be settled by CPS.
New consumer brands such as Perfect Diary and Huaxizi range from 0 to 1, and Li Jiaqi is indispensable. The same is true, Tamazawa.
The cooperation between Yuze and Li Jiaqi can be described as fame and fortune.
As a cosmeceutical brand under Jahwa Group, Yuze was founded in 2003, focusing on "medical research and co-creation", which belongs to the slow-heat type niche brand, until its debut in October 2019, Li Jiaqi's live broadcast room entered the public vision, and in the follow-up cooperation, it gradually completed the popularity transformation from "unknown" to "light of domestic goods".
At the GMV level, according to the research report data of Guosheng Securities Research Institute, from January to June 2020, Yuze and Li Jiaqi cooperated in live broadcasts up to 28 times, and the live broadcast day GMV accounted for about 70% of the total brand GMV.
Interestingly, the products that were fired by the live broadcast seemed to be difficult to "wean" during the live broadcast, and Yuze had a "withdrawal reaction".
According to the cosmetics industry data review released by Zhongtai Securities from June to September 2020, Yuze was affected by Li Jiaqi Amway's Centella Asiatica mask, and the sales volume exceeded 100,000 pieces in June, and the GMV reached 19.9 million yuan. However, after the product stopped live broadcasting, only 0.65 million pieces were sold in July, with sales of 1.2259 million yuan, and 0.88 million pieces were sold in August, with sales of 1.5752 million yuan. Until the return to via's live broadcast room in September, 56,000 pieces were sold that month, with sales of 10.87 million yuan.
In li jiaqi live broadcast room to take off, but also by Li Jiaqi live broadcast room in addition to Yuze's GMV and brand reputation.
Yuze's reputational transformation from "the light of domestic goods" to "ungrateful" occurred between "one abandonment and one vote" (the cooperation with Li Jiaqi was suspended on September 7, 2020, and weiya's live broadcast room was added on September 9), and broke out in October 2021.
The fuse is Li Jiaqi's connotation of Yuze in the live broadcast room: "I will put the price of lyophilized mask down... I don't target any one person, I target one brand. This once again stimulated Li Jiaqi's fans, who were already anti-water to Yuze, and began to scold Yuze on Weibo, Little Red Book, and B station, the topic ranged from ingredients to prices, and even Weiya diamond powder also began to scold Yuze white-eyed wolves in the live broadcast room, clearly indicating "refusal".
04
The key price control in the live broadcast room
If Yuze is the victim of this "battle of the two kings", then L'Oréal is the object of the "two kings" and the enemy.
On November 17, Li Jiaqi and Wei Ya issued statements saying that they had suspended cooperation with L'Oréal. Reason l'Oréal officially promised to give the "biggest effort of the year" to the two major live broadcast rooms overturned:
On October 20, the double 11 pre-sale period, Li Jiaqi and Wei Ya live broadcast room on the shelves of Paris L'Oréal bottle mask, the price of the live room is 429 yuan. L'Oréal official micro has repeatedly certified this as the "maximum strength of the year". However, when the brand was broadcast on November 1-3, the price of the same product dropped by 172 yuan after using the superposition discount.
Huo Yijie, a lawyer at Gelian, believes: "Regardless of whether there is price gouging, the core problem of this incident is actually the collaboration dispute between the head anchor and the brand side, and the core problem exposed is that the price control agreement and the traffic trade-off. ”
Li Jiaqi wants to "low prices", the purpose is to fix the powder at a low price. Anchor fans are first of all consumers, the relationship between the two sides from attraction to binding are inseparable from the word "low price", the so-called "lowest price of the whole network", "price breaking marketing", "small profits and high sales", "lower than Lao Luo" are the lowest prices of a single product, and "product portfolio" and "gift discount" is the lowest price of the combination.
The essence of the live broadcast room is one of the main fronts of private domain operation. Fans are the private domain traffic of the anchor, the anchor selects the products according to the needs of the fans to "invest in what it needs", and the lowest price given to the fans is "invested in its favor", and the two together constitute the key to the anchor to do a good job in private domain operation and achieve "quality" and increase "quantity".
Brands want "traffic" and may be able to cut prices to circle fans. Since the first identity of anchor fans is consumers, brands can help anchors fix fans with both high pit fees and low prices, so it is better to subsidize consumers in the store self-broadcast room and swear "pricing power" to consumers at a lower price.
Just like the analysis of an industry insider: the same product Paris L'Oréal self-broadcast room price is lower, from the side of the explanation, skip the anchor of this third party, the brand self-broadcast is more favorable.
To a certain extent, the new model of live streaming is also constantly challenging the brand's profit expectations and premium space, just like Simba responded when talking about the brand owner's question about the low price pressure: "The brand owner's high gross profit itself is unreasonable, we just let him earn less." ”
Nowadays, anchors with sales of more than 50,000-100,000 yuan in a single session will hardly take the initiative to find goods, according to the person in charge of a super head anchor investment, "Now we are picking 40 out of 10,000 goods." "To this end, it has even spawned a new format: live broadcast intermediaries.
The times have changed, if the brand has reduced the price expectations of consumers on the brand because of the cooperation with the head anchor, and also advanced the purchasing power of consumers, then for the brand, it may be time to put down the sense of superiority, face the price, solid circle fans, do a good job in store self-broadcasting, self-built traffic, is the strategy of thin water and long-term flow.
05
Come to Japan long 2021 live broadcast selling new strong tone
On May 14, a co-branded halterneck fan sold in Via's live broadcast room was accused of copycat co-branding, and on May 28, Via issued an apology statement, saying that the mistake was due to the team's lack of experience in selecting trend brand products;
On August 30, the public account of the Shanghai Municipal Consumer Protection Commission issued a document saying that the pastoral low-fat whole-wheat European bag that Wei Ya brought with the goods contained about 40% more energy than the nominal;
On December 23, Li Jiaqi was named by the Consumer Protection Commission of Zhejiang Province, saying that there was an irregularity in the labeling of one batch of goods in his live broadcast room;
The super-head anchors with selection rights, professional selection teams and strict selection processes are still sheltering from lightning, and small and medium-sized anchors are full of thunder: from "bargaining with goods" to "selling miserable goods", anchors have many gimmicks, but even the most important products are not fully introduced and displayed.
In the official notice of the Consumer Protection Commission of Zhejiang Province mentioned above, it is pointed out that during the "Double 11" period, the five platforms of Taobao, Pinduoduo, JD.com, Kuaishou and Douyin have non-compliance with nearly 30% of the anchors, and nearly 40% of the live broadcast products do not meet the national standards.
Although the low prices and gimmicks in the live broadcast room can be attractive, there are risks of supervision and brand cooperation, and the other way to rely on professional goods is not only stable, but also works.
In 2021, a phenomenon-level anchor - Ah Huai relies on vertical, content personnel.
On August 12, Douyin anchor Ah Huai became famous by winning 110 million GMV in the first live broadcast: the conversion rate was 16.85%, and the UV value was 27.57 yuan, which was more than 3 times the data of the super disk. What is even more surprising is that at that time, Ah Huai was only 5 months old in Douyin, and the number of fans was only more than 1.3 million, and the high stickiness and high purchasing power of fans made the performance amazing.
The reason behind this is that in addition to the platform traffic support, more in its people.
"In the beauty industry for 20 years, I know some ingredients, understand some formulas, and share some correct skin care concepts and easy-to-use products." This is Ah Huai's Douyin profile, with a clear goal, to create a professional, credible and people-friendly ingredient party/formulator design. Among them, the label of "20 years of practice" will be repeatedly mentioned in previous videos.
Then pick up the video video planning: or dry goods special topics, systematic explanation of skin care knowledge, obscure terminology will also be accompanied by comics and mind maps; or directly hit the inside story of raw materials to create an image of insiders; or inventory classic domestic products, export patriots.
Of course, Xiao He's law also applies to Ah Huai, who became a new sister of Douyin on August 12 because of his content major, and fell to the altar on August 13 because of the copying of the hammer content. But its short-lived success has allowed the market to see the huge potential of vertical, professional anchors.
Let's look at the group data:
On October 24, more than 50,000 people poured into the special session of "Laughing about Purple Sand X Dragon Kiln Firewood + Senior Engineer Master", and the transaction amount on the same day exceeded 2 million yuan, which is equivalent to the sales of the whole family of the "Laughing About Purple Sand" for 1 year before doing the douyin live broadcast;
During the Double 12 period, Zhang Xiuchen, the third generation of the century-old shop "Xianghe Rao Shop", demonstrated the family production skills in the live broadcast room. The e-commerce revenue in the third quarter of 2021 has been equivalent to the revenue level of the entire Xianghe in the previous year;
In essence, live streaming has reorganized the relationship between people, goods and fields:
The display of "goods" breaks through the two-dimensional limitations of graphics and texts, becoming more intuitive and objective; the restrictions of time and field are broken, and shopping at any time, anywhere and on demand gives consumers convenience and saves the display cost of the brand.
At the "people" level, anchors with knowledge and professional content are similar to "consumer consultants", which can provide full service from product selection, product explanation, knowledge output to Q&A, etc., helping consumers shorten the consumption decision-making path and enhance brand favorability.
Compared with direct price stimulation, the fan relationship established by content as an intermediary is undoubtedly more solid in texture, and the views and aesthetics output by the anchor will also affect the viewing and purchase of consumers.
Taking Generation Z as an example, they are more accustomed to paying for content, and the consumption opinions given by content bloggers based on professional knowledge are not only more acceptable than celebrity live broadcast "brush face" and "nine pieces of nine packages of mail", helping their favorite content bloggers to eat properly, but also allowing this group of netizens who seek a sense of group belonging and are keen to cultivate fun to get a considerable sense of achievement.
In 2021, major platforms have also frequently moved to help vertical content anchors.
For example, in the category of food, Taobao has set up a "Diners Player" channel on Double 12, which gathers many "professional gourmets" including Traditional Chinese medicine practitioners, tea artists, nutritionists, national intangible pastry shop owners, etc., to do popular science and select good things in the live broadcast room, and provide professional and reliable purchase and cooking advice.
Douyin also launched the "See Craftsmanship" program in October to provide traffic support for non-hereditary heirs and professional craftsmen.
For brands, this is a signal to enhance the inclusiveness of the format of the live broadcast room. On the one hand, new brands can enter the game more efficiently, and compared with head anchors with high pit fees and long ranking cycles, vertical talents are more willing to accompany the growth of new brands. On the other hand, niche brands such as handicrafts, 3C, cars, jewelry and other niche categories also have the opportunity to take the live broadcast express, after all, compared with the pursuit of low prices and lack of professionalism of the comprehensive live broadcast room, the vertical live broadcast room can more accurately reach the target consumption of niche brands.
Brands can choose vertical talents according to their stage and brand tonality, so as to achieve stable content output and more scientific consumer cultivation.
The live stream is vast. According to the China Commercial Industry Research Institute, the scale of China's e-commerce live broadcasting market will rise to 1,507.3 billion in 2022.
The live streaming is also bustling. The intricate relationship flow of "anchor-platform-brand" and the stream of anchors with different live broadcast styles converge from all directions and rush to the Yangyang traffic pool.
But everywhere there are rules. Since 2020, a number of regulatory departments of the state have issued more than 20 normative documents for live e-commerce, and the platform has responded positively, taking the head anchor as a typical, multi-party joint effort, and what they want to do is to give the torrent of live broadcast goods to channel rather than block.
So far, the development of live broadcasting is not only an industry, but an infrastructure as an Internet entrance, and for the entire consumer industry, live broadcasting is a channel that cannot be ignored.
We look forward to more and more new brands starting, more and more old brands renewed, and finally through the cycle, becoming a big brand recognized and trusted by consumers in this era.
In 2022, the jianghu of live streaming with goods is still growing, but the posture will no longer be arbitrary, and the content will be more imaginative.
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