Look at this chart, the one-year LPR was lowered from 3.8% to 3.7%, two consecutive months, while the 5-year LPR was lowered from 4.65% to 4.6%, which has not been lowered for 20 months, and now it cannot be stretched.
A few days ago, the GDP data for 2021 came out, an increase of 8.1% year-on-year, which still looks quite good. In terms of quarters, the first quarter increased by 18%, the second quarter by 7.9%, the third quarter by 4.9%, and the fourth quarter by only 4.0%.
Why is it so obvious to go high and low? Dismantling the pillar industries, the automotive industry bottomed out, and although the IT industry was in a rumble, it still made a lot of money, and only the performance of the real estate industry remained surprisingly consistent with the GDP growth curve of the four quarters.
In the real estate of 2021, everyone should be able to clearly feel the first quarter, high morale, starting from the third quarter, directly lying flat to now. In 2021, the country's commercial housing has sold 1.79 billion square meters, an increase of only 1.9% year-on-year, but sales of 18.2 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.8% year-on-year, it seems that house prices are still rising. But that increase is the lowest since 2008 and 2014 aside.
As soon as real estate is in a downturn, the economy has had to cough, as it has been for the past 30 years. So, on the morning of January 20, the latest LPR interest rate released by the central bank showed that mortgage interest rates finally began to fall after 20 months of consolidation.
There is no way, real estate is the pillar, local cities still have to live, have money to do infrastructure, have money to invest, they have to rely on real estate developers to buy land to build houses, rely on buyers to buy large-scale loans to buy houses. The interest rate cut is to tell us, hurry up and buy it, otherwise, there will be no rice under the pot.
In the past year, real estate is spent in the wind and noise, the average price of residential sales in January is still 11228 yuan / square meter, but in December only 9860 yuan / square meter, shrinking by 12.18% Ah, the average price fell so much, in the context of the differentiation of the national property market, those eighteen-tier cities, real estate should be how difficult. No wonder so many cities have been in a hurry in the past year, anxious to unwind real estate developers, send subsidies to buyers, send home purchase indicators, discounts and so on.
But I really don't recommend that you go to a small city to buy a house, on the one hand, the per capita housing area of the country is 41 square meters, this data looks very good, the family of three has a large three-bedroom of 123 square meters, but the biggest contribution is actually a small city, everyone has a house in the countryside, there is a house in the city, unless there is a special urgent need, there is really no need to buy again.
In large cities, the per capita housing area is only about half that of small cities. No way, incomes are indeed growing, but they still can't beat house prices. Let's say that my Beijing, in 2021, the per capita disposable income will exceed 70,000, but so what? The house price in the fifth ring road of Beijing is 70,000, the east and west cities are 150,000, and the southeast and north of the south outside the fifth ring road are not cheap, and the southwest is cheaper.
The money earned in a year is enough to buy a square meter, and you have to eat or drink, how many people can do it?
Sounds a bit mournful, doesn't it? But that's exactly what happened, and I have to come back with some cold water, don't look at the 2021 property market so miserable, but the overall price is still going up. I have already calculated for you above, if you extend the house price to the past ten years or even more than twenty years, you will find that it is rising every year, without any exceptions. This shows what, if you can't accept renting, you should buy a house or buy it early, be this leek early, it is so heartfelt.