Jingcai praise: From 8.1% to see the resilience and potential of China's economy

Recently, the National Bureau of Statistics released the 2021 China Economic Annual Report - GDP growth of 8.1%, an average growth of 5.1% in two years; the per capita disposable income of residents in the country was 35128 yuan, an increase of 9.1% over the previous year, and an average nominal growth of 6.9% in two years. In the face of the triple pressure of demand contraction, supply shock and expected weakening, China still handed over an economic report card that attracted the world's attention, which fully reflects the remarkable results of the mainland's overall epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development work in the past year. From different perspectives, we can see the full color of this report card.

From an international perspective, China has become the "ballast stone" for the stable growth of the world economy. At present, the world economy is coming out of the trough, but the risks such as the disruption of the global industrial chain supply chain, the continuous rise in commodity prices, and the tight energy supply are intertwined, which aggravates the uncertainty of the economic recovery process. According to the IMF's forecast, global economic growth will reach 5.9% in 2021, of which real GDP growth in emerging markets and advanced economies will be 6.4% and 5.2%, respectively. In contrast, China's economy achieved 8.1% growth, once again leading the global economic growth rate and emerging market growth.

In 2021, China's total economic volume will reach 114.4 trillion yuan, which is converted into an average annual exchange rate of 17.7 trillion US dollars, ranking second in the world, accounting for more than 18% of the global economy, and it is expected that the contribution rate of China's economic growth to world economic growth will reach about 25%. At the same time, China's foreign trade will remain strong in 2021. In the face of the strong impact of the epidemic on the global economy, supply chains and value chains have been seriously damaged, China's economy plays an extremely important role in the stability of the global economy, and is the most important force driving growth.

From a domestic point of view, industrial manufacturing and the digital economy have become important "promoters" of economic growth. The rapid growth of industrial manufacturing comes from scientific and technological innovation and structural transformation. In 2021, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 9.6% year-on-year, while in the industrial segment, the added value of high-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing was 18.2% and 12.9% respectively; from the perspective of products, the output of new energy vehicles, industrial robots, integrated circuits, and microcomputer equipment increased by 145.6%, 44.9%, 33.3%, and 22.3%. These high-growth segments are the key areas of the mainland's manufacturing structure optimization.

The rapid rise of the production-oriented service industry with digital technology as the core, and the integrated development of the digital economy and the real economy have become the "new outlet" for economic growth. In 2021, the information transmission, software and information technology service industries in the tertiary industry will increase by 17.2%, fully reflecting that the core industries of the digital economy are gradually becoming an important driving force in the mainland service industry. With its huge role in enhancing the resilience, resilience and quality of the industrial economy, the digital economy integrates the "new IT" technologies represented by cloud computing, big data, artificial intelligence, and the Internet of Things, and becomes a new engine to cheer up industrial operation and help high-quality development.

The achievements and potential of China's economy are exciting, but we must see more pressures and challenges. The century-old changes and the century epidemic are intertwined, the tide of the world economy is turbulent, the global low inflation environment has undergone obvious changes, the risk of compound inflation is emerging, and the external environment is becoming more complex and severe and uncertain. "When the river comes out of Tongguan, because of the resistance of Taihua, the water power increases its fierceness; the wind returns to the Three Gorges, because of the Wushan Mountains, the wind increases its anger.", in the face of the complex and severe international environment and the domestic challenge of reform and development tasks, we must not only face up to the difficulties, but also strengthen confidence; under the impetus of a strong endogenous driving force, the mainland's economy is resilient, and the fundamentals of long-term improvement will not change. 2022 is a year in which the mainland's economy gradually returns to normal operation, adhere to the general tone of the work of seeking progress in stability, completely, accurately and comprehensively implement the new development concept, accelerate the construction of a new development pattern, comprehensively deepen reform and opening up, and adhere to innovation-driven development.

(The author is a consulting expert of high-end think tank at the Capital Development Research Institute of Peking University and a distinguished associate researcher of the China Research Institute of Fudan University)