Gülen is a high-achieving student at Tsinghua University. She once had many hobbies, such as dancing folk dances, blowing black pipes, and being the director of several literary and art performances, and the only hobby that may be left later is investment.
Focus on things and be diligent. Gülen has been on fire in recent years, and the scale of funds under management has reached nearly 100 billion yuan, and the glory of top fund managers and pharmaceutical goddesses has been heard endlessly.
But in the last six months or so, she should have been very tormented. She managed a total of 5 funds, the most well-known of which is the CEIBS Healthcare Mix, with a high retracement of up to 37%, and a large number of investors who followed the goddess to bet on the wild. Without contrast, there is no harm. In the same period, the CSI 300 fell by 7.3%, and the average drawdown of the same kind was within 10%.
If you rank according to the rate of return, the last January, March, June, and 1 year have all ranked at the bottom of the same category, which is far from the level of the crown of the "Goddess of Medicine". Some frustrated investors joked that Gülen was going to become Aunt Ge?
Some people say that the 37% drawdown is not much of a failure, and again, as an investment, the short-term months of data is not telling, to put the time to 3-5 years or even longer to test, do not know the entire market ridicule her, in a few years, what these people will think.
Some people argue that her role is to manage other people's money, and to pay attention to other people's money. No one has the patience or obligation to accompany you to verify the "long term". Do you know the assessment system for fund managers? More than half a year has lost nearly 30% of the CSI 300, which is too much!
The medical and health performance of Central Europe is dismal, but the off-site basic people have flocked to the scene regardless of it. By the end of the third quarter, the size of the fund was as high as 31.27 billion yuan, an increase of 5 billion yuan or 19% compared with the second quarter. In the same period, the fund share was 8.5 billion, an increase of 2.27 billion or 26.7% from Q2 and an increase of 626% from the end of 2019.
Net worth plummeted, and the basic people were trapped. In more than half a year, the net worth loss of 31.2 billion yuan exceeded 11 billion, evaporating 0.5 billion in one day. The people are crying, and Gülen may not be able to hide his sorrow!
01
Step on the thunder to grow tall
Changchun high-tech single is unique, with a thunderstorm physique. Gülen began to buy in Q3 2017, and then continued to increase its position, once becoming the largest heavy stock. Prior to Q3 last year, CEIBS Health added positions for five consecutive quarters, gradually increasing its position from 826,700 shares in 2020Q1 to 6.21 million shares in 2021Q2. Last Q3, the position was reduced by 1.11 million shares to 5.099 million shares. Later, in the fourth quarter (Changchun Gaoxin's temporary announcement on November 23), it added 418,000 shares to 5.517 million, becoming the fifth largest shareholder of Changgao.
However, mainstream market institutions are sharply cutting their positions. As of 21Q3, the number of fund holders was 206, with 237 fewer Q2 and 99 fewer Q3. The number of shares held at the end of Q3 was 51.199 million shares, the Q3 position was reduced by 11.79 million, and the Q2 position was reduced by 18.79 million. In addition, Jin Lei, the second largest shareholder of Changchun High-tech and general manager of Kinsey Pharmaceutical, reduced his holdings by 2% to nearly 4 billion yuan in the six months before May 20.
Many institutions, including executives, have fled for their lives, but Gülen has dared to disagree with the majority and go against the wind. But the result was not good, and the head was broken and bleeding.
Changgao was once a hundred billion white horse, with many shareholding institutions, and rarely appeared in a single-day drop and stop. However, in the past 8 months, there have been 4 drops.
On May 21, the long high fell brazenly near the all-time high. On Friday, the Guangdong Provincial Medical Insurance Bureau issued the "Letter on Jointly Carrying Out the Procurement of Provincial Drugs and Consumables Ultrasound Knife Head Alliance" on the Internet, which caused heated discussion on the Internet, and recombinant human growth hormone may be included in the collection.
For the collection rumors, it is unlikely that the long-term high response to the short-term collection is unlikely. And that Sunday in an Anko Bio conference call revealed that they knew the news on Thursday, and determined that both the growth hormone powder needle and the water needle will enter the collection, and some provinces will definitely participate.
On August 5, the second time the long height fell to a halt, due to the first night xinhua news agency's article "Height anxiety to play the "height injection"? dangerous! 》。 This article points directly to the various chaos in the growth hormone industry, and it is considered to be a name for growth.
Until yesterday, the Guangdong Inter-Provincial Alliance collection was officially finalized, and the growth and high auxin was unexpectedly included. The alliance includes 11 institutions in 10 provinces, mainly concentrated in South China, Central China and Northwest China. In 2020, the revenue of the area above the long and high will account for about 27%. According to the calculation of 3 to 7 inside and outside the hospital, the market revenue affected by the impact is about 700 million yuan, affecting the profit of 270 million yuan, accounting for 8.3% of the total net profit.
But the truth is not so simple. In the field of powder needles, the first place is Anke Biotech, accounting for 44% of the share, and United Saircell and Kinsey Pharmaceutical occupy 31% and 16% of the market share respectively. In the field of water needles, Kinsey Pharmaceuticals almost exclusively enjoys this market, accounting for as much as 70% of revenue. Anke Bio listed water needles in 2019, but due to the epidemic, it did not release in 2020.
This time, the water needle and powder needle were included in a collection pond beyond expectations. According to the quotation rules, enterprises reduce prices by 10-19% and obtain 25%-70% of the first year's pre-purchase volume.
The revenue of long and high powder needles accounts for less than 10%, and it is indeed possible to gain market share by reducing prices. The water needle is different, originally belonged to the long high exclusive, is the main source of the company's profits, but also the main force of high growth in long-term performance. Since the price of water needles is twice that of powder needles, if you want to maintain the market share of this part, I am afraid that the price will be reduced by at least more than 50%. If this is the case, it will also destroy the market price system outside the hospital.
If Kinsey and Anke join forces to abandon the in-hospital market, the official collection will have no choice, but the possibility is very small. Once Anko chooses to reduce the price to get the share, it is fatal to the growth height. Because even if the price is reduced by 50%-70%, the water needle still has profit margins. Barefoot is not afraid to wear shoes, Anke can do this, in the hospital to reduce the price to obtain a share, and outside the hospital to set a unified low price, for the Kinsey outside the price of a serious impact. By the way, the Guangdong Alliance will be expanded to the whole country in the future.
If the price is reduced by 50%-70%, the gross profit margin will fall from the current 85% to the floor. Obviously, auxin collection has seriously impacted the profitability of Changchun Gaoxin, which is an important factor in the recent 2 drops. Just like the tax exemption supplementary agreement between China Exemption and the launch, the growth potential of the machine is destroyed, and the stock price continues to fall to a halt. By the way, after the incident, Zhang Kun quickly sold the Shanghai airport that he had held for several years.
Before growing tall, the market has long been a rumor for collection and mining, and single-track enterprises face huge operational risks. Stent collection, industry collapse, Lepu is very injured, the stock price continues to be sluggish; orthopedic collection, Dabo Medical, iKang Medical both ushered in a critical blow; blood perfusion collector collection, violent attack Jianfan biological; innovative drug collection, Hengrui was forced to a dead end.
On May 21, the official rumor collection began, to the Xinhua News Agency's article to knock the long high, and then to yesterday's official post, Gülen had enough time to deal with, to think, to adjust the position.
However, it is a pity that Gülen ignored the potential major risks of the collection, and still increased the position sharply in the second quarter to resist the decline, the reduction in the third quarter was too small, and the fourth quarter also increased the position against the trend. This series of operations is not as professional as a top fund manager should have.
02
Configure aggressive
At the end of the third quarter, the top 10 heavy stocks of CEIBS Medical health care accounted for 72.7%. Gülen is bold and aggressive, holding 5 CXOs with a position ratio of up to 43%. Zhao Bei (ICBC Healthcare) is bolder, with 8 CXOs in heavy stocks, and the position is as high as 56%.
Zhao Bei once said: "I can clearly see where there are more fish, where there are fewer fish, and then re-match the industry with more fish." "Re-betting on an industry, the elasticity of the rise is very good, and the performance will be very bright in a short period of time." But the tide receded, thinking about the whole body retreat, the ideal is very full, I am afraid that the reality is very backbone.
In recent months, CXOs have largely ebbed off. Medici, who is 10 times as old in 2 years, has recently been beheaded in less than 4 months. WuXi, Kanglong, Kai Laiying, Tiger and other big dragons have thrown themselves into the street.
At present, there is no problem with the performance of CXO companies, but the logic of high valuation is loosened. CXO, as a water seller of innovative drugs, relies on downstream for high prosperity. If the downstream does not work, it will definitely come back.
Now, Hong Kong A-share innovative drugs are flowing into rivers, whether it is the second and third lines, or the first-line leaders, a drop of 50% is a small amount, and a general decline of 60-70%. The secondary market is so fierce, and the tide of innovative drug listing has also followed. Two days ago, Maiwei Biotech Was listed on the Science and Technology Innovation Board, which fell 29.6% on the first day, once again hitting the market's confidence in innovative drugs.
Secondary transmission to the primary market, innovative drug venture capital projects may change from fragrant to hot potatoes. The innovative pharmaceutical industry has entered the liquidation stage, and the tail pharmaceutical companies are facing the risk of exhausting cash reserves, losing the refinancing function, and unsustainable research and development.
From the current perspective, the big bubble in China's innovative drug industry burst. Its sword is due to the control of medical insurance costs, the intensity and breadth of collection have been significantly strengthened, which has profoundly changed the expectations of the capital market for innovative drugs. This, of course, also impacts CXO.
The so-called cyclicality of CXO is not the prosperity to contraction, and then to the prosperity, but the return to normal after the prosperity, and the industry growth rate has slowed down significantly. In China, the market previously expected the high prosperity of the CRO industry to continue until 2025, and the industry growth rate will exceed 20% before the inflection point appears. By 2025, the industry growth rate will decline off a cliff, only 14.9%. In terms of CRO penetration, it will reach 46.7% in 2023. The sweetest time is slipping away day by day.
When the industry boom is high, the performance of major players without exception is exploding, and the stock price continues to soar without difference. However, judging from the current crazy expansion rate of CXO head companies and the crazy transformation of CDMO by raw material companies, there is no so-called slow bull, which will be significantly ahead of market expectations to complete the high-altitude cycle.
The CXO boom is counting down, and it's not realistic to maintain a valuation of more than 100 times. In recent months, the market wind has changed, and CXO valuations have continued to retrace, but they are still on the high side and should continue to kill valuations this year.
I also remember that before this wave of corrections, Hillhouse accurately escaped the top and sold CXO sharply. Now, are the radically configured CXO medicine goddesses okay?
03
No more lying to win
In the past many years, many super bull stocks have emerged in major fields of medicine, such as innovative drugs, medical devices, medical services, vaccines, CXOs, medical beauty, etc. Dragons are often able to cross the bulls and bears, bringing enough return surprises to investors. Looking at the chart below, China's total health expenditure increased from 458.6 billion yuan in 2000 to 6519.6 billion yuan in 2019. In less than 20 years, medical costs have increased 13 times, with a compound annual growth rate of 15%, far exceeding the growth rate of GDP.
However, since July last year, in addition to traditional Chinese medicine, there has been an intensive retracement of more than 50% in major pharmaceutical segments. This is not simply a question of high valuation drawdowns, it must be something happening at the macro level that causes the market to completely change expectations.
The normalization of collection and procurement should be exhausted, and the depth and breadth continue to exceed expectations, becoming a killer tool to change the investment in the pharmaceutical industry. On January 10 this year, at the National Standing Meeting, it was clearly stated that it is necessary to promote the normalization, institutionalization and acceleration of centralized procurement, continue to reduce the price of medicines, and benefit patients.
Screenshot of the news feed
At the same time as the collection is advancing, the medical reform has entered a tough period. On October 15, the Leading Group for Medical Reform of the State Council issued the Implementation Opinions on Deepening the Experience of Sanming City, Fujian Province, and Deepening the Reform of the Medical and Health System. The opinions on medical reform are finalized, or they will profoundly change the operating logic of the entire pharmaceutical industry.
The "Sanming Model" strictly controls excessive examination, excessive medication and excessive treatment, and realizes the "return of public hospitals to public welfare, doctors to the role of medical treatment, and trust between doctors and patients". To put it bluntly, the Sanming model has achieved a "win-win- three" situation of financial pressure reduction, patient burden reduction, and doctors' income increase, and huge interest groups such as medicine, equipment, and medical services will become losers.
The Sanming model was promoted nationwide and the rallying call was officially sounded. If the implementation and promotion are good in the future, it will be similar to the far-reaching impact of the anti-monopoly Internet.
On the one hand, the collection of "speeding up and expanding the scope", on the other hand, the medical reform has entered the deep water area, the purpose is very simple, so that medical treatment returns to the public welfare attribute. The top level has also stressed many times: "In the medical reform, we must adhere to the public welfare and break the profit-seeking nature."
Three mountains, real estate is returning to residential attributes, education to break the capitalization back to the source, medical care, although the reform resistance is heavy, but the return to public welfare is unstoppable. For real estate, education and the Internet, the strong enforcement of supervision has also made the capital market believe that the mountain of vigorous knife medical treatment is inevitable.
At present, the supervision and reform of the industry has a main line of policy, that is, common prosperity. Senior experts commented:
The program of common prosperity may make three levels of division of the development of different industries: some industries are to carry out high-quality development (high-end manufacturing, new energy vehicles, etc.), some industries need to be adjusted (Internet industry), and some industries need to transition to public service attributes (education, medical care, pension, housing and other industries).
In the track of the thick snow on the long slope of medicine, Gülen ate a long, long dividend, which belongs to the model of buying the dragon head and lying down. However, in the future, on the way to return medical care to people's livelihood and public welfare, investment will not be easy.
In fact, looking at the stock market, there has never been a trick to eat forever. For the great changes in the era of medicine, I don't know if the goddess of medicine is ready, and whether the people are ready.