On January 20, the opening of Changchun High-tech fell to a halt!
Image source: CSI Taurus APP
On January 19, Changchun High-tech suddenly flashed and fell to a halt at 227.6 yuan / share. Since December 17, 2021, Changchun Gaoxin's stock price has been in a gloomy pattern.
Changchun High-tech has continued to fall, and the "goddess of medicine" Glen has been deeply set! It manages CEIBS Healthcare, which is the fifth largest circulating shareholder of Changchun Hi-Tech. In the past month, the two pharmaceutical funds managed by Gülen have fallen by 10.47% and 11.32% respectively, and both have fallen by more than 20% in the past three months.
The "goddess of medicine" Gülen also planted
On January 19, the Guangdong Provincial Drug Trading Center issued the "Guangdong Alliance Diclofenac and Other Drugs Centralized Procurement Documents", announcing a list of 276 drug procurement, of which the recombinant human growth hormone of Kinsey Pharmaceutical, a subsidiary of Changchun High-tech, was included in the collection.
Changchun Gaoxin responded on the investor interactive platform after hours on the same day: The company is currently actively studying policy provisions and will formulate reasonable plans, and there is no expectation of specific impact at present.
Affected by this, Changchun High-tech has fallen for two consecutive days. Since December 17, 2021, Changchun High-tech stock price has always been in a negative mode, as of the noon close on January 20, Changchun High-tech 204.84 yuan / share, compared with the historical high of 522.17 yuan / share has fallen 60.8%, the total market value has also fallen below the 100 billion yuan mark, the latest report of 92.1 billion yuan.
Changchun Gaoxin has been in the clouds for a month, and the "goddess of medicine" Gülen has been deeply covered.
According to Wind data, as of November 23, 2021, the CEIBS Healthcare Hybrid Fund managed by Gülen held 5.5172 million shares of Changchun Gaoxin, ranking the fifth largest circulating shareholder.
Image source: Wind
Since the second quarter of 2020, Gülen has continued to increase its position in Changchun High-tech. However, in the third quarter of 2021, there was a reduction in positions. It is worth noting that from the end of the third quarter of 2021 to November 23, 2021, Gülen increased its position again, compared with 5.0992 million shares at the end of the third quarter, Gülen increased its position by 418,000 shares in the fourth quarter.
In addition to Gülen, the two funds managed by Zhang Qinghua of E Fund, E Fund Yufeng Return Bond Fund and E Fund New Income Flexible Allocation Hybrid Fund, also appear in the list of the top ten circulating shareholders of Changchun High-tech.
From the perspective of the CeIBS Medical and Health Hybrid Fund managed by Gülen, the top ten heavy stocks at the end of the third quarter of last year have all fallen by more than 5% year-to-date; 7 have fallen by more than 10% in the past month; 5 have fallen by more than 10% in the past month; 5 by Aier Ophthalmology, Gloria Ying, Kanglong Huacheng, Tongce Medical, and Zhifei Bio have fallen by more than 17%; since the end of the third quarter of last year, all of them have fallen by more than 10% and 6 have fallen by more than 30%.
Although the products managed by Gülen have not yet disclosed the fourth quarter report of 2021, it is also evident from the net value of its funds. According to the data of the Daily Fund, on January 19, the net value of the CeIBS Healthcare Hybrid A managed by Gülen fell by 2.68%, and the net value of the CEIBS Medical Innovation Stock A fell by 3.15%. In the past month, the two funds have fallen by 10.47% and 11.32% respectively, and in the past three months, they have both fallen by more than 20%.
Image source: Daily Fund Network
In the face of the sharp decline in the net value of the "Goddess of Medicine" management fund, the basic people also showed different attitudes in the comment area. Some basic people believe that if they fall so much, they can only continue to increase their positions; but some basic people say that they have been adding positions every time they fall, and the light warehouse has become a heavy position, and the increase cannot be moved.
Can the pharmaceutical sector be laid out?
Can the continuously adjusted pharmaceutical sector usher in the "spring" in 2022? And how do you capture opportunities in the pharmaceutical field?
Mingshi Partnership Fund believes that in the context of medical insurance cost control, collection has become a normal action. Within the previous valuation framework, the enterprises involved generally adopted the valuation method of forward market value discounting. Forward market capitalization discounting should consider both the impact of profitability and the impact of returns. Although the price reduction of collection and procurement will increase the penetration rate of products in the short term, it will also affect the potential market value space.
Roughly speaking, assuming that the price of the product is reduced by 50%, the future market size will also decline by 50% in the case of forward penetration rate and the company's market share remain unchanged, and with the changes in the capital market environment, the return rate of demand for enterprises is also improving. These companies have experienced a process of long-term performance and valuation, and the stock price has fallen very firmly.
However, Minsey Partners believes that everything should also be seen to have two sides, and the market is currently panicking about the companies involved in the collection, but what fund managers need to do is to recalculate the forward space and find a buying point that can provide a sufficient margin of safety. When the impact of the collection is fully reflected in the stock price, it will become a good layout time.
Liu Hua, partner, research director and investment manager of Dapu Asset Management, said that the new blue chips such as medicine and consumption may not usher in the "spring" as a whole in 2022, and it is necessary to specifically judge the various segments. In terms of medicine, the impact of the collection policy on the pharmaceutical industry is long-standing. For some subdivisions that have just entered the scope of collection, such as instruments, insulin, etc., or biological drugs, diagnostic reagents, etc. that are speculated to enter the scope of collection, they can be circumvented; for many years of entering the scope of collection, segments that have been relatively stable in terms of pattern, price, valuation digestion, etc., such as some innovative drugs, generic drugs, etc., can start to consider configuration again; there are also some subdivisions that are not affected by collection and collection, and configuration can be considered.
Edit: Yu Hongbo