Japan laments that 30 years of blockade have not stopped China's technological progress
Takashi Hashimoto
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Before entering the main topic, the author first mentioned a piece of data, January 10, the South Korean National Defense Technology Promotion Institute published the "2021 National Defense Technology Level Survey", this survey is from 2008, carefully look at the data, found that in addition to the status of the United States has not changed, the fastest rise in status is China, including artificial intelligence, big data and other technological progress in the unmanned weapon system, intelligent rapid development. Artillery, the chain of command areas are all on the rise. The world's eye-catching radar and outer space weapon systems are among the best in the world. In 2021, China launched the Mars Exploration System, the Lunar Exploration System, the Manned Space Station, etc., rapidly approaching the level of the United States, and these high-tech technologies are all part of military technology. Japan's ranking in this survey is 8, while China is 6th. 1-3 places are the United States, France and Russia. It is foreseeable that after 3 years, China's ranking can enter the top 3, and in 2008, after China was 15, military technology has been a tightly sealed area between the United States and Japan against China. In other words, the more Japan and the United States blockade China, the greater the progress.
On January 10, Japan's Yomiuri Shimbun, which is closely related to the ruling Liberal Democratic Party, published an internal report saying that Japan and the United States should jointly take action to strengthen control over the export of advanced technologies, mainly for semiconductor manufacturing and artificial intelligence, and for neighboring countries. The content of the article is that based on the common value of ideology, it is necessary to strictly control the export of technology for "military-civilian integration" in China. In fact, during the Cold War, the United States and other Western countries have always had strict control over the technology exports of Eastern countries. For example, the Japanese machinery company disguised high-precision machinery as ordinary precision and exported it to the Soviet Union, and the United States imposed severe sanctions on Japanese companies.
In November 1949, the United States led 17 countries to set up the "Export Control Coordinating Committee", because its headquarters is in Paris, also known as the "Paris Coordinating Commission" (referred to as "Batumi"), the purpose of the organization is to restrict the export of strategic materials and high technology from member states to the Eastern countries, the implementation of high-tech blockade of the socialist camp, within the organization there is a special Chinese committee, separately customized 500 prohibited items for China, including military weapons and equipment, cutting-edge technology products and strategic products. In April 1994, the Cold War ended and the Cold War-era Paris Coordinating Commission was forced to disband. However, the United States has joined forces with 33 countries to sign the Wassenaar Agreement in Wassenaar, the Netherlands, to continue to restrict and continuously strengthen the export of so-called sensitive technologies to China, and to impose a blockade on China in high-tech fields such as aviation, aerospace, information, and biotechnology, thus depriving China of the opportunity to purchase advanced military equipment and civilian high-tech equipment from Europe and the United States. In early 2007, in the face of a rising China, the U.S. government restricted the export to China of 20 types of high-tech products, including aircraft and aero engines, inertial navigation systems, lasers, optical fibers, depleted uranium, underwater cameras and propulsion systems, advanced composite materials, and high-tech communications equipment, despite the opposition of U.S. companies. During the Trump administration, the U.S. Department of Commerce first included 44 Chinese military scientific research units (8 units and 36 affiliates) in the export control list and implemented technology blockades on the grounds of national security and diplomatic interests; then listed a number of Chinese companies such as Huawei in technical restrictions and banned them, pointing the spearhead at China's 5G technology, which is making continuous progress.
The Western bloc, led by the United States, adheres to the Cold War mentality and ideological line. As always, China will carry out comprehensive containment in the high-tech field, adhere to the zero-sum game in international relations, and intend to gain comprehensive advantages over China in the technical, military, economic, political and other fields. High-tech comprehensive containment is a gradual shift from military technology blockade to all-round technical encirclement and suppression. Beginning with the "Batumi" organization, the Western countries headed by the United States have imposed a comprehensive blockade on China's military technology, and want to carry out the threat of war against China and other socialist countries through high-level military technology, forcing the socialist countries not to concentrate their energies and resources on economic construction in order to achieve the purpose of promoting change through pressure; after the end of the Cold War, in the face of China's rapid rise, the Western high-tech blockade not only did not weaken, but on the contrary continued to strengthen, while continuing the military technology blockade, gradually turned to information, navigation, In the information age, in the face of the continuous improvement of China's scientific and technological level, it has begun to block the high-end civil technology in high-end fields represented by 5G, new materials, biogenetics, low-light night vision, convertible advanced electronics, and precision high-voltage forging technology. The means of technological blockade and encirclement and suppression are diversified. It covers trade embargoes, restrictions on the flow of talent, termination of academic exchanges and cooperation, cross-border long-arm jurisdiction, and prohibition of participation in the formulation of international standards. For example, the United States has recently imposed restrictions on academic exchanges between Chinese scientists and China, canceled the academic exchange visas of Chinese researchers in high-tech fields, urged international multinational companies and scientific research institutions to terminate R&D cooperation with Chinese companies, implemented cross-border long-arm jurisdiction to arrest Huawei executives in allies, and encouraged the International WiFi Alliance and JEDEC Association (Solid State Technology Association) to suspend or temporarily revoke Huawei membership. Finally, the United States launched allies to jointly carry out a technical blockade against China. From the 17 countries of "Batumi" to the many countries of the Wassenaar Agreement, it is an activity carried out by the United States to gather its allies in many ways, to form a trend of technological encirclement of China from the international level, to isolate China in the field of high technology, and to lock china at the low end.
However, these technological containments have not been achieved for 30 years, and the Yomiuri Shimbun report reveals that in addition to the Wassenaar Agreement, the United States and Japan will further strengthen their technical control over China. The author has doubts, if we say that technology containment, the Trump era has reached its peak, and the 2019 National Defense Authorization Law has added the management of micro-technology, especially including artificial intelligence, quantum technology, supersonic technology, cosmic technology and network technology. There are also unprecedented strict rules for investment in the United States. Japan's reference to the Wassenaar Agreement is beyond the provisions of the 2019 National Defense Authorization Act. I think that what Japan can get its hands on now are semiconductor manufacturing related technologies (high-purity silicon crystal manufacturing) and nuclear technology (nuclear fusion technology, nuclear waste disposal technology). In order to ensure the technological superiority of western groups, after Biden became the president of the United States, on the basis of the Trump era, the United States added geospatial image analysis automation software, lasers, sensors and other technologies, communication data monitoring software and hybrid manufacturing devices, all of which are high-tech related technologies. This is a signal that the United States will join forces with Japan to increase its weight and "open the knife" to China's high-tech.
However, the author has always believed that the United States should start such technological control 60 years ago, which may delay China's technological progress, and after 10 years of rapid development, China has made breakthroughs and upgrades in the field of high technology. During the Cold War period, China faced two enemies, not only facing the United States' tangled "Batumi" technology blockade network, but also encountering the Soviet Union's betrayal of trust, suddenly withdrawing experts and tearing up contracts. After the end of the Cold War, under the technical blockade of the Wassenaar Agreement, China could not buy European fighters such as "Typhoon" and "Rafale" from Western countries, And China continuously improved its own military science and technology level through independent research and development, personnel training, and scientific research cooperation. In the information age, although the United States has imposed a blockade on China in many high-tech fields, it has made great progress in 5G, intelligent navigation, cloud computing, high-speed rail and other fields, with impressive results.
Especially in semiconductor manufacturing technology, the author would like to talk about it in particular, after encountering US semiconductor sanctions 2 years ago, China's semiconductor manufacturing not only did not disappear, but also increased its output in the most profitable 40-inch semiconductor field. There is a prediction that in two years, China's semiconductor level will pose a danger to semiconductor manufacturing such as South Korea. In 2020, the market share of Chinese semiconductors is 9%, and by 2024, it will be 17%, which requires an annual increase of 30%, and China's semiconductors will grow by 30% in 2021. Japan is currently building a 40-inch semiconductor factory in Kumamoto, but the factory will be completed after 2025, and if this factory is completed, the world's 40-inch market will be completely occupied by China. Therefore, the high-tech containment of the United States not only cannot contain and drag Down China, but also increases the manufacturing capacity of Chinese enterprises and accelerates the inflow of Chinese funds into high technology. And Japan followed the United States to participate in the blockade of High-Tech in China, not only can not let its own technology get secondary benefits, but also unfavorable to the development of Japanese companies, because when the United States strongly regulates the development of Japanese companies' semiconductors, it is the Chinese market that helps Japan. Once the high-tech Cold War begins, Japan will completely lose the Chinese market.
Former name: Japan's participation in the high-tech Cold War in the United States has not paid off