According to the US White House, Japanese Prime Minister Kishida and US President Biden will hold their first video summit on January 21, focusing on confirming the strengthening of the Japan-US security alliance and discussing security cooperation and countermeasures against China, and the two countries have just held a "2+2" meeting between foreign ministers and defense ministers on January 6-7. The Japan-US "military alliance" and the Japan-Australia "paramilitary alliance" are regarded as the "double spears" implemented by the Japanese government to curb China's development. It can be said that the United States is the "chief architect" of the strategy of containing China, while Japan is the country with the strongest implementation and the widest range of fields in key areas such as diplomacy, military, and science and technology. This article will sort out Japan's motives for curbing China's development and the possible future direction of Sino-Japanese relations.
The US White House issued a statement on January 16 saying that Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and US President Biden will hold an online meeting on the 21st. "This meeting will show the strength of the U.S.-Japan alliance," and Biden looks forward to working with Fumio Kishida and through the U.S.-Japan-India-Australia Quadrilateral Security Dialogue Mechanism to advance the two sides and the quadripartite vision for a free and open Indo-Pacific region, the White House said in a statement. This will also be the first summit dialogue between Japan and the United States since the Kishida government came to power. In his New Year's speech, Kishida said that "in view of the increasingly complex and difficult situation around us, it is essential to skillfully handle diplomatic and security affairs," and in fact, curbing China's development and responding to China's national reunification has become the kishida government's first priority.
Just from January 6 to 7, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, Together with Japanese Foreign Minister Yoshinori Hayashi and Defense Minister Nobuo Kishi, held the US-Japan "2+2" security consultation meeting in the form of video, at which Japan made new and important commitments to strengthening the Japan-US military alliance and responding to the situation in the Taiwan Strait, including the joint use of US and Japanese military facilities in Japan, expanding and reorganizing support for the US military. As well as strengthening the readiness of the Self-Defense Forces in areas such as Japan's South Western Islands.
Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida signed the Australia-Japan Defence Reciprocal Access Agreement on January 6
On January 17, Prime Minister Kishida delivered a policy speech in the Diet, saying that 2022 is the 50th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between Japan and China, and he hopes to establish a "constructive and stable" relationship with China, but Kishida also mentioned that he will discuss the issue of strengthening current defense capabilities, including the ability to attack enemy bases.
Foreign Minister Yoshiyoshi Hayashi also delivered a diplomatic speech on Jan. 17, saying That Japan could not agree with China's attempts to "unilaterally change the status quo in the East China Sea" and that It would respond "calmly and resolutely." In his speech, Lin Fangzheng stressed that peace and stability in the Taiwan region are very important to Japan, and he claimed that what Japan should advocate will be advocated, and China will be required to act responsibly, and Japan will also strengthen the deterrent force and response capability of the US-Japan alliance.
Japanese Foreign Minister Yoshimasa Hayashi
Listening to his words and deeds, we have noticed that since the last Suga administration, Japan has become more and more closely following the pace of the US strategy to contain China, and Foreign Minister Lin Fangzheng stressed in this diplomatic speech that in order to achieve a "free and open Indo-Pacific", Japan must strengthen cooperation not only with the United States, but also with Australia, India, ASEAN (ASEAN), Europe and other "partner countries". If you look closely, this is no different from the US Indo-Pacific strategy, and in the case of the Biden administration's inability to "fight alone" against China, Japan has fully "filled the position" in various fields such as diplomacy, military, economy, and science and technology.
Interestingly, the "2+2" talks between the foreign ministers and defense ministers of Japan and France, which officially launched in 2014, will also be held soon this year, with Japanese Foreign Minister Yoshimasa Hayashi and Defense Minister Nobuo Koshi, together with French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian and Defense Minister Florence Parly. In 2021, the French Army and Japanese and U.S. forces in Kyushu, Japan, conducted the first joint island defense training, and France also hopes to start negotiations with Japan due to the recent conclusion of the Reciprocal Access Agreement (RAA) between Japan and Australia for the first time to facilitate bilateral defense and security cooperation. If Japan can sign the Reciprocal Access Agreement with France, it can also help the Biden administration to do the ideological work of the Macron administration and help the United States make up for France's feelings of being "left out" and "stuck in the back".
French President Foreign Affairs Adviser Boehner visits China on January 13
Coincidentally, on January 13, Boehner, the Foreign Affairs Adviser to the French President, visited China and held the 22nd China-France Strategic Dialogue with Chinese State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi. Previously, there were views that since the Biden administration, the Japanese government seems to have a "backbone", watching the global new crown epidemic affect the face-to-face talks between the leaders of the United States and Japan, the Kishida government was very anxious after taking office, so the new year just began, Japan proposed to advance the "2+2" security dialogue meeting between the Foreign Ministers and Defense Ministers of Japan and the United States to January 6-7, and Kishida himself held a video summit with Australian Prime Minister Morrison on January 6.
Now, Japan and France will soon hold "2 + 2" talks, on January 21, Japan and the United States will also stage the first summit of the New Year, it is estimated that the Japanese government will have diplomatic moves during the Winter Olympics, such as Japan and the United Kingdom in order to strengthen military cooperation, has held the first negotiation on the conclusion of the "Reciprocal Access Agreement" on July 10, 2021, it is likely that Japan and the United Kingdom will start new negotiations.
On September 6, 2021, Japanese Defense Minister Nobuo Kishi visited the British aircraft carrier Queen Elizabeth, which is visiting Japan
Obviously, Japan is constantly expanding its military cooperation with Western countries, and China has always been a "thorn in its side," which is also a means of "killing two birds with one stone" for Japan, which can not only "add blockage" to China diplomatically, but also strengthen its containment power against China militarily, not to mention that the US Government will also cooperate and support militarily and diplomatically, especially during the Chinese New Year and the Beijing Winter Olympics, if it can create new international hot spots and divert the attention of international public opinion, it can at least dilute the peaceful atmosphere of the Winter Olympics.
At the end of last month, about 100 members of the Japanese Diet collectively visited the Yasukuni Shrine, and former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe also beat the drums of war on the Taiwan issue, making a big fuss about it; the Japanese government's tendency to "turn right" was obvious, and "militarism" showed signs of revival. From the perspective of the current Sino-Japanese relations, China and Japan are not only "cold in politics and economy," but also because of China's all-round rise, the "military imbalance" between China and Japan has led to the vigorous intervention of the "third party" of the United States, and one of the important grasping hands is China's Taiwan issue. The Chinese Ministry of National Defense has warned that "Taiwan's affairs are China's affairs and have nothing to do with Japan," but the Kishida Fumio administration's China policy, like that of its predecessor, the Suga administration, will continue to pursue a "one-sided" diplomatic and military policy toward the United States, assist the United States in "using Taiwan to control China," and fully cooperate with the United States in implementing the "Indo-Pacific strategy" to curb China's development and growth.
From January 6 to 7, the U.S. and Japanese foreign ministers and defense ministers held "2+2" talks
On November 11, 2021, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida met with Aquilino, commander of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, who was visiting
Of course, Japan's China policy also has historical and economic factors, and from the perspective of modern history, Japan has experienced a process from "dominating" Asia, "collapsing" in the middle way, to "being subjugated by the United States," and then to "attaching itself to the United States." In this process, one of the main lines is Japan's ambition to "covet" China's territory and wealth. Although Japan has experienced great ups and downs in history, it has never willingly accepted the reality that Japan is "smaller" than China. Moreover, from the perspective of economic strength, Japan has only been surpassed by China for 10 years, and the balance of military strength between China and Japan has just been reversed, so Japan has a strong motive to curb China's development and become strong, and we cannot underestimate the huge impact brought about by the historical complex of Japan's "conquest of China".
According to reports, the Chinese side has issued the strongest warning to Japan through various channels that if Japan "takes a wrong step" on Taiwan-related issues, it may "cause irreparable impact" and China may "reconsider" Sino-Japanese relations. Obviously, this kind of warning is almost equivalent to an "ultimatum" to Japan, that is, Japan will never be allowed to intervene in the Taiwan issue. Now, the Kishida government is in full swing, working closely with the United States and keeping a close eye on China, as if it were the "right and left arm" of the United States.
We hope that the Japanese Government will take into account the overall situation of stability in East Asia and will not be willing to act as a "strategic vassal" of the United States in order to curb China's development, collude with the United States, and undermine the overall situation of stability in East Asia and China's peaceful development. If Japan takes a wrong step on the Taiwan issue, China's policy toward Japan may not only be reversed, but the entire situation in the Taiwan Strait and East Asia will undergo earth-shaking changes, and at that time, Japan will once again have the problem of national survival.
Former Prime Minister of Japan Shinzo Abe (part 2)
Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida