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△ National precipitation forecast map (Central Meteorological Observatory / Hair)
Beijing Express News on February 11, the people's voice of the world In the blink of an eye, the "Li Chun" of the traditional twenty-four solar terms has arrived. This week's (February 7-February 13) national weather stage, in the eyes of experts, the scene of rain and snow is still the absolute protagonist. The south continued the previous weather conditions, with frequent precipitation, and the area from Guizhou to Jiangnan was still wet and cold overall.
Experts said that according to the latest meteorological data analysis, the current numerical model forecast of the china-Europe-Us tripartite meteorological agencies is still somewhat different for the snowfall situation in North China this Sunday (13th); and the numerical model of the same institution is still swinging at different starting times. Among them, the NCEP model of the National Environmental Forecasting Center of the United States is relatively stable, and the snowfall center is maintained near Shijiazhuang. The snowfall center reported by the European Meteorological Center EC model has a trend of southern adjustment, which weakens the snowfall in Beijing; mainly from the perspective of the low-altitude wind field forecast, after the east wind comes in, the northward tilt is not obvious; such a wind field is more conducive to Langfang, Baoding, and Shijiazhuang in the south of Beijing, and there is obvious snowfall; therefore, the European side began to move closer to the US forecast.
According to experts, the numerical forecast of the Mainland Central Meteorological Observatory has a process of weakening and strengthening; the current reported snowfall situation is generally weaker than the numerical forecast of Europe and the United States; the center of the large value is near Jinghai in southern Tianjin - Cangzhou, Hebei. From the comparison of the low-altitude 900 hPa wind field and the 850 hPa wind field, the east wind and southerly wind reported by our side are the smallest, the European side reports the strongest, and the US forecast is close to the mainland.
It is worth noting that industry insiders stressed that it is not difficult to find that the trough of the US forecast is clearer than that of the mainland; therefore, the overall strength is the weakest in our report. For the public, it is also necessary to pay close attention to the meteorological department when it is approaching, one is to see whether the development of high-altitude short-wave troughs in the Hetao area is relatively clear, affecting the power uplift. In addition, it is also necessary to look at the actual wind field at low altitude, and the direction of the air flow from the Bohai Sea into Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei affects the water vapor transmission. However, there will be snow in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei on the 13th, but the intensity details are still variable. (Editor-in-Charge/Xiang Yu)
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