Editor's Note:
In 2022, the three-year action of state-owned enterprise reform ushered in the year of tackling tough problems and ending the year. How to screen the investment targets for the reform of state-owned enterprises? "Investment Letters" will give you a detailed explanation.
This year marks the end of the three-year campaign to reform state-owned enterprises
2021 is the second year of the three-year reform of state-owned enterprises, and at a press conference held by the State Council's new office on January 19, Peng Huagang, secretary general of the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council and spokesman of the Press, said that 70% of the overall task has been completed.
According to Peng Huagang, in 2021, central enterprises will implement more than 890 mixed reform projects through market-oriented methods, and introduce more than 380 billion yuan of social capital. While introducing various types of social capital to carry out joint venture cooperation, central enterprises also start from strengthening industrial chain cooperation and cultivating new growth points, and carry out equity participation and investment in private enterprises through market-oriented methods. At present, there are more than 6,000 foreign shareholding enterprises in our central enterprises.
The stripping and withdrawal rate of the "two non-assets" (non-main business and non-advantageous business) and the "two capitals" (inefficient assets and invalid assets) of local state-owned enterprises of central enterprises has exceeded 80%. The key loss-making sub-enterprises of the central enterprises have reduced their losses by 83.8% in three years, and more than 1,400 loss-making sub-enterprises have achieved significant loss reductions as a whole, and successfully completed the special rectification task.
Peng Huagang said that this year is the end of the three-year action of state-owned enterprise reform, and the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council will focus on doing a good job in the following three aspects:
The first is to grasp the end according to the target tasks. In accordance with the requirements of the three-year action goal, it is necessary to strengthen supervision and supervision, strictly implement the assessment responsibility, and clear the number of each item. Highlight the standards of effectiveness, strengthen the assessment and evaluation of achievements, and strive to form a number of influential major landmark practical achievements, institutional achievements, and theoretical achievements.
The second is to focus on key and difficult points to tackle tough problems. Fully implement the requirements of the central enterprises to strengthen the leadership of the party in improving corporate governance, build a professional, responsible, standardized and efficient board of directors, promote the implementation of the three system reforms in sub-enterprises at all levels, implement a market-competitive salary incentive system for key core technical talents, and promote the in-depth transformation of the operating mechanism of mixed-ownership enterprises.
Third, it is necessary to focus on consolidating, expanding, and promoting. Solidify the important measures and experience of reform in the form of systems, and promote the more mature and stereotyped systems in all aspects. Do special projects such as "Double Hundred Action", "Science and Technology Reform Demonstration Action", "Regional Comprehensive Reform Experiment" and so on, and further play a demonstration and leading role.
Study the establishment of a new central enterprise group in due course
Peng Huagang said that the reorganization and professional integration of central enterprises should be solidly promoted. In terms of strategic restructuring, we focus on the implementation of national strategies such as supply-side structural reform, innovation-driven development, and the construction of a manufacturing power, and steadily promote the restructuring and integration of steel and other fields in accordance with the principle of "mature one household, promote one household", and study and establish a new central enterprise group in relevant fields in a timely manner. In terms of professional integration, we will take the business as the goal of becoming stronger and more refined, take the advantageous enterprises as the main body, actively promote the professional integration of grain reserve processing, ports and terminals, and effectively improve the efficiency of resource allocation and the core competitiveness of enterprises.
Peng Huagang also said that it supports and guides state-controlled listed companies with a shareholding ratio of more than 50% of state-owned shareholders, and introduces strategic investors of 5% or more to participate in corporate governance as active shareholders. It is a reform measure proposed by the three-year action of state-owned enterprise reform, which is encouraged and advocated, and is not a compulsory choice. Last year, about 13 listed companies controlled by central enterprises carried out this reform, and the overall effect was good.
He pointed out that in the next step, the SASAC will continue to support and encourage listed companies controlled by central enterprises to introduce active shareholders to participate in corporate governance. The introduction of active shareholders must truly empower listed companies and improve the governance level of listed companies, promote them in accordance with marketization and the rules of listed companies, and promote one by one when they are mature, and they must not engage in "sports-style" or "pull-and-match".
The spring market is optimistic about the main line of state-owned enterprise reform
In 2022, real estate, private enterprises and other entities may face certain downward pressure, and state-owned enterprises are relatively dominant. The downturn in real estate is the biggest potential challenge to the macro economy this year, and it is more difficult to restart the real estate cycle under the "housing and not speculation". And the base of the first half of 2022 is relatively high, and the current corporate model of high debt, low cash flow and low profit margin of mainstream private real estate is difficult to sustain. In this context, Zhongtai Securities believes that the blue chips of the large market and state-owned enterprises are relatively dominant.
At the index level, the theme of soE reform has obvious excess returns. The "Double Hundred Index" rose 32.9% in 2021, significantly outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index (3.9%) and the CSI 300 (-6.2%). The "SoE Reform Index" rose 21.1% in 2021, significantly outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index.
Zhongtai Securities believes that there are excess returns in the following three ways of reforming state-owned enterprises:
(1) Restructuring and merger: the first notice date of the restructuring information has a strong profit-making effect; There was an overall excess gain after the restructuring was completed. The 5 companies that underwent restructuring in 2021 rose significantly on the day of the restructuring information forecast, and the money-making effect near the announcement date of the completion of the restructuring was not obvious.
(2) Introduction of war investment: State-owned enterprises and central enterprises have significant excess returns from the introduction of strategic investors. After 2020, the number of state-owned enterprises and central enterprises that have introduced war investment in A-share announcements has increased significantly from 14 in 2019 to 36 in 2020 and 26 in 2021. The 36 companies in 2020 will be equally weighted to build a "war investment index", up 16.3% in 2021, and the CSI 300 will fall by 6.2% in the same period.
(3) Equity incentives: The implementation of equity incentives by state-owned enterprises and central enterprises has a significant effect on improving performance. Since 2018, the state-owned enterprises and central enterprises that announced the equity incentive plan (excluding the failure to pass) have held it for 2 weeks after the announcement of the plan, and the median annualized excess yield relative to the CSI 300 can reach 15.7%, but the excess return has fallen rapidly after 1 month. Therefore, for institutional investors, the operability of buying according to the announcement date of the plan is not large, and the focus of equity incentives is mainly on the performance realization after implementation.
The reform of state-owned enterprises has become one of the main lines of stock selection this year
The "Investment Express" reporter noted that in the final year of the three-year action of state-owned enterprise reform, many institutions are optimistic about the investment opportunities for the reform of state-owned enterprises, how to screen and lay out the investment targets for the reform of state-owned enterprises?
China Merchants Securities believes that the 2021 Central Economic Work Conference proposed to complete the three-year action task of state-owned enterprise reform, so the reform of state-owned enterprises will have more landings this year, and the reform of state-owned enterprises will become one of the important main lines of stock selection this year.
Zhongtai Securities maintains the characteristics of the spring market will be based on the low valuation of blue-chip repair, and its central enterprise leader is particularly worthy of attention, focusing on the equity incentives that have been made in 2020-2021 and benefit from the high dividend (dividend index) of the central government in the field of intensive financial efforts. In the past two years, the debt default rate of state-owned enterprises has deviated from the default rate of private enterprises, the debt default rate of state-owned enterprises is significantly lower than that of private enterprises, and the leading state-owned enterprises have a higher dividend rate. Based on the logic of steady growth and low valuation repair, state-owned enterprises are expected to take the lead in benefiting.
(1) Select state-owned enterprises and central enterprises that have completed restructuring and merger in 2021 or introduced strategic investors, or implemented equity incentive plans in 2022.
(2) Screening of high-prosperity industries and tracks. Select high-prosperity tracks such as new energy infrastructure and power operation, military industry, medicine, and new materials.
(3) Screening enterprises with high valuation and cost-effectiveness, according to the PE and PB quantiles in the past decade, screening out targets with valuations below 50 quantiles.
Reform the stock pool of state-owned enterprises
Key industries in the reform of state-owned enterprises pay attention to the target
