The scene of the Iranian nuclear talks held in Vienna.
Recently, the eighth round of the Vienna talks on the Iranian nuclear issue has been accelerated, and multi-level meetings of relevant parties have been held frequently, releasing positive signals. On Friday, negotiators from the three European countries (Britain, France, Germany) and Iran returned to the capitals again to report on the negotiations and seek instructions for the next steps. On 17 January, negotiators returned to Vienna to continue consultations on outstanding issues.
Negotiations focus on "details"
Since the launch of the seventh round of negotiations, more consensus has been gradually established between all parties, especially between the United States and Europe and Iran. As the negotiations deepened, the Proposal of the Iranian Negotiating Team was incorporated into the new draft, and the parties reached a framework opinion. Around the two cores of resolving sanctions and regulating Iran's nuclear activities, the negotiations have delved into specific issues such as how to implement the agreement and "sequencing" the U.S.-Iran action.
Iran's state news agency quoted sources as saying, "We are discussing the details, which is one of the most tedious, lengthy and difficult parts of the negotiations, but it is absolutely necessary to achieve the goals.". Russian negotiator Ulyanov said the meeting of the working group on lifting sanctions last Sunday focused on the sequence of steps to lift sanctions and reduce Iran's nuclear activities. The negotiations have reached the stage of how to put the principled consensus on paper and form a new agreement.
Of course, there are still key unresolved issues in the four aspects of the negotiations between the United States and Europe and Iran: the lifting of sanctions, nuclear activities, the assurances of the United States not to break the treaty, and the verification of U.S. actions. At the same time, Iranian Foreign Minister Abdullahyan said that Iran seeks to reach an agreement in a short period of time, but the United States and three European countries are inconsistent in words and deeds, and have not shown enough initiative in practice.
Iranian President Lehi, who has expanded diplomatic space in many ways.
The Lehi government has expanded its diplomatic space in many ways
Despite Iran's repeated stress that there is no deadline set for the Vienna talks, Iran will not rush to reach an agreement that is "not in Iran's interests." U.S. Secretary of State Blinken warned again last week that there are only "weeks left" to save the JCPOA and that if the talks fail, the U.S. will consider "other options." The United States and Europe are concerned that Iran will use the negotiation time to continue its nuclear program and break the critical line of enriched uranium needed to build nuclear weapons in a few weeks. Analysts point out that Iran's attitude toward the time frame for negotiations may be related to the foreign policy of the Lehi government.
Since the establishment of the Iranian Lehi government, it has promoted the turn of diplomacy and expanded diplomatic space in many ways. Recently, Iranian Foreign Minister Abdullahyan led a delegation to visit China, and the Chinese Foreign Ministry announced that the implementation of the 25-year comprehensive cooperation agreement between China and Iran will strengthen cooperation between the two countries in various fields. The Iranian government has repeatedly stated that developing relations with China is an established policy at the highest level in Iran. On January 19, Iranian President Lehi set off to visit Russia to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin and discuss the signing of a new 20-year strategic cooperation agreement between the two countries. In addition, Venezuelan President Maduro will visit Iran to seek an economic deal. Iran's Foreign Ministry announced that Iran will also strengthen relations with African countries.
Iranian think tank experts pointed out that the Lehi government is seeking a positive diplomatic path, and in terms of economic diplomacy, it is appropriate to distance itself from Western countries, strive to diversify its economic partners, and achieve the goal of "not relying entirely on agreements with the United States and Europe to achieve economic development.". Analysts pointed out that although all parties are willing to re-implement the Iranian nuclear agreement, Iran has doubts about whether the agreement can bring the expected economic benefits. The Joint Action Plan (JCPOA), reached in 2015, lost its significance due to the change of U.S. government, and Iran faces greater pressure on sanctions than before the agreement. Iran is worried that the future changes in the US political situation will once again subvert the agreement, which is also the motivation for Iran to demand that the United States make a guarantee not to break the treaty.
Arak heavy water reactor in Iran.
The United States and Iran still need to strengthen coordination and make compromises
Recent negotiations have shown that under the mediation of all parties, the United States and Iran have made concessions in lifting sanctions and regulating nuclear activities, but there is still a certain distance to reach a final agreement. Several key issues must be addressed in view of the next phase of negotiations.
The first issue is how to delineate the scope of sanctions that should be lifted. The United States has repeatedly said that it cannot lift all Sanctions related to Iran at once, and Iranian Foreign Minister Abdullahyan said in a recent interview with the media that Iran is seeking to lift sanctions "related to the Iranian nuclear agreement" at this stage. Some Western media interpreted it as Iran's loose position in demanding that the United States lift all sanctions. It should be noted that since the beginning of the negotiations, the Iranian government has always stated that all its demands "do not exceed the Iranian nuclear agreement", but there are still doubts about whether the sanctions related to human rights, terrorism and missile programs imposed by the Trump administration on Iraq are related to the nuclear agreement, so it is necessary for all parties to reach a consensus to delineate the scope of sanctions lifting.
The second question is whether the United States can make a guarantee to Iraq not to break the treaty. Last week, more than a hundred Republicans in the U.S. House of Representatives jointly demanded that the Biden administration withdraw from the Vienna negotiations and increase pressure on Iraq. According to the Wall Street Journal, Biden is powerless to push the United States to pass laws to constrain the successor administration's policy toward Iraq. During last year's G20 summit, Western countries issued a joint statement welcoming the United States to address Iran's concerns head-on. U.S. and European diplomats said they were studying the possibility of the U.S. Treasury Department providing guarantees to specific banks and enterprises as a guarantee to Iran, but the approach was far from the level of "legal protection" required by Iran.
The third issue is how to verify the lifting of sanctions by the United States. The United States believes that the effect of lifting sanctions will be felt within a few days, but Iran prefers to determine the actual effect of the lifting of US sanctions over a longer period of time. Analysts pointed out that Iran's implementation of its commitments under the agreement is "irreversible" and that only by fully determining the lifting of US sanctions can it make up its mind to stop uranium enrichment or sequestration centrifuges. The next step in negotiations needs to be clear about the criteria and cycles that should be used to validate the U.S. commitment to lift sanctions.
The fourth issue is what to do with Iran's enriched uranium and centrifuges that exceed the limits of the agreement. Iran's current stockpiles of enriched uranium and centrifuges have far exceeded the provisions of the Iranian nuclear agreement, and whether the relevant raw materials and equipment will be destroyed after the agreement is reached, or temporarily stored in Iraq or other relevant countries, further negotiations between the parties are needed to promote the conclusion of the agreement.
Author: Kong Zhiyu
Editor: Liu Chang
Photo: Xinhua News Agency