Wen | Zhou Liming
Produced by | Tencent News Lichun Studio
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The Chinese film market in 2021 is mixed. The total annual box office reached 47.258 billion yuan, more than double the 20.4 billion yuan in 2020, and more than 70% compared with the 64.2 billion yuan in 2019 before the epidemic, while the global film box office only recovered to about 51% before the epidemic. It can be seen that we have maintained the momentum in 2020, continued to lead the global market, and maintained the position of box office champion.
From the "2021 Tencent Entertainment White Paper"
01 The Matthew effect is becoming more pronounced
Many fans reflect that in 2021, they will often encounter the strange phenomenon of "personal charter", even in the prime time of first-tier cities in the north, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen, you will find that the entire cinema hall is only you, which is equivalent to a personal charter. That's because, in addition to the two largest slots of the gratifying Spring Festival and National Day, which maintain the same heat as before the epidemic, the usual film market is colder than the previous off-season - the lowest daily box office in 2020 has reached 30 million, and there are several days in 2021 to explore 20 million. If we calculate according to the 20 million daily box office, divided by 75,000 cinema halls, the average daily box office of each cinema hall is only 267 yuan when the film market bottoms out; and then calculated according to 40 yuan per movie ticket (which includes the handling fee of the ticketing platform), the average daily audience of each cinema hall is 6.67 people; divided by the lower daily 4 shows, each audience is only 1.67 people. The projection industry is completely unable to make ends meet, and the resulting losses can be imagined. Once I ran into an audience of only me, and I offered to change to another one half an hour later, so that the theater could at least save some electricity bills; the theater said no, because the back one was also empty.
The 75,287 screens are the latest milestone to be reached at the end of the second half of 2021 and represent the industry's capacity. When the production capacity can not meet the market demand, there will be a vote is difficult to find or even scalpers, and the price rises, the Spring Festival stall part of the scene reflects this phenomenon; when the production capacity is much higher than the market demand, the opening means losing money. For those who have come from a deprivation economy, overcapacity is unimaginable. Another category of idealists who can't see overcapacity as a crisis can be summed up in the classic line from the 1989 film Dream Come True starring Kevin Costner— "If youbuild it, they will come." (If you build it, they'll come). The reality is very bone-chilling, compared with the 1.73 billion moviegoers in 2019, about 600 million fewer in 2021. Theaters have been built, more have been built, but fewer people have watched movies, and the output value of each cinema hall has been lower.
The performance of single films can also be seen: the three highest-grossing films have exceeded 4.5 billion, of which "Chosin Lake" broke the record, setting a new record of 5.773 billion. "Hello, Li Huanying" and "Detective Chinatown 3" are the two "backbones" that support the Spring Festival file. However, the huge span of 1.5 billion to 4.5 billion is completely vacant, and there is not a single film; compared with 7 in 2019, this fully shows that the Matthew effect of the film market has reached an alarming degree. There are only 7 films in the grade of 1 billion to 1.5 billion, but fortunately, 5 of them do not belong to the two slots of Spring Festival and National Day. (There are 6 films in this grade in 2019). There are 44 films in the 100 million to 1 billion range, which is the right proportion, but the number is also seriously insufficient (75 in 2019). Which of these films failed to rank among the 1 billion+ and which 1-1.5 billion films should have entered the ranks of 1.5-4.5 billion, and what are the subjective and objective reasons, it is worth studying.
Just as 2020's "Eight Hundred" is the global box office champion, 2021's "Chosin Lake", "Hello, Li Huanying" and "Tang Detective 3" occupy the second, third and sixth places in the global box office respectively. The first place, "Spider-Man: Homeless", was released at the end of the year, and by Christmas it surpassed "Chosin Lake", which made many of our fans unhappy. However, this problem can be seen from two aspects: the $1.2 billion box office of "Heroes Of No Return" is the global box office, of which the North American figure is less than half, which is 557 million, and the $900 million of "Chosin Lake" is the achievement of Chinese mainland, in other words, if these two films represent the ceiling of the two major film markets in China and the United States, then our market capacity is larger than that of the United States. (Note: "Heroes Of No Return" is still in theaters, and the final box office will definitely increase, but whether the North American figure can exceed 900 million is worth paying attention to.) On the other hand, "Heroes Without Return" can achieve $645 million in overseas box office before the end of the year, indicating that Hollywood's global strategy is ahead of us, and our culture still needs comrades to work hard; however, one thing should not forget, the proportion of overseas box office is often much lower than that of the local box office, so how much profit "Heroes No Return" can get back from overseas and how much contribution to their local economy can be more question marks.
In previous years, China's overseas box office was mostly created by Sino-US co-productions, such as a "Kung Fu Dream" (2010) that can greatly increase this number in one fell swoop. But we have to face the fact that the vast majority of domestic films still do not have a decisive overseas market, so if we use purely domestic data to compare, China's becoming the world's largest film market is not only a reality, but also will continue to be maintained - this has little to do with the epidemic, and the inability of Western countries to fight the epidemic only allows this trend to surface quickly.
02 Drifting away from Hollywood
The absence of waist films is the biggest crisis in Chinese films at present. Audiences seem to be willing to walk into theaters on a small number of occasions for a few films, and other times begin to abandon the option of going into theaters to see movies. The 2020 Beijing International Film Festival and the Shanghai International Film Festival are still discussing the contradiction between streaming media and theaters, and the situation is gradually becoming clear in 2021, streaming media such as Youai Tengmang do not seem to have robbed the audience of cinema films, a large number of audience eyeballs are attracted to short video platforms, and short videos do not need to spend huge sums of money to produce content like cinema films or streaming media. This situation has formed a new industry pattern and competitive situation not only in China, but also in Western countries. For example, after the official reopening of North American theaters in the second half of 2021, only a few super series blockbusters can attract people, and small and medium-sized films (even if they are acclaimed literary films) have lost the vast majority of audiences, while TikTok has robbed a large number of traditional movie audiences.
The recurrence of the epidemic is a major reason for the loss of cinema audiences. Instead of having to grab a sneak peek at the film, most people choose not to enter the theater. The lack of imported blockbusters is also an important reason. In 2019, imported films accounted for 36% of the total box office in the mainland, of which two entered the top ten at the box office; in 2020, 16%, none of them entered the top ten; in 2021, the box office proportion of imported films was 15.51%, and only two entered the top ten. A few years ago, the head position occupied by imported films has long since completely given way to domestic blockbusters, and the psychological defense line of 50% of the box office ratio has become a distant memory - but imported blockbusters cannot even keep the waist of the market, which is a completely new phenomenon. The reason for this is that imported films (even if they are super blockbusters) are often difficult to sink to third- and fourth-tier cities, and the expansion of the market is generally there; second, in order to curry favor with Wall Street, several Hollywood blockbusters have handed over the latest blockbusters to their own streaming media platforms, resulting in piracy being the first to climb; third, our cautious attitude in the introduction has also caused huge faults in the market. From the perspective of literary and artistic diversity, the introduction of films from different countries can indeed prosper the market, but from the perspective of industry, only Hollywood can mass-produce popcorn movies, and films from other countries are popular in our market, which basically belongs to the dark horse.
Marvel Universe's "Black Widow", "Shangqi and the Legend of the Ten Rings", "The Eternal Family", "Spider-Man: Heroes Without Return" have been absent from the Chinese market, these are 1 billion + films, and as long as it is not the Spring Festival or National Day, it will not cause competition for domestic films, if it appears during the bleak 20-30 million day box office, it can play a role in saving the market. Obviously, the rejection of these products by the Chinese market is not based on economic factors. From the feedback of the majority of netizens, the loyalty of these imported films does not seem to be as high as imagined, and many people say that it is not a loss to watch imported blockbusters, because with the development of the film market, super blockbusters need to completely sink to third- and fourth-tier cities in order to become super blockbusters, and the main force of imported films is often in first- and second-tier cities. In other words, even without the epidemic and decoupling, Hollywood blockbusters may only hover at the 1 billion box office. It is rare to break through 2 billion, and blockbusters of more than 3 billion will be firmly in the hands of domestic films (only one imported film of more than 3 billion is "Reunion 4").
With a box office of 4.25 billion yuan in the mainland, It is the only imported film in the top ten box offices in the history of Chinese films
The Chinese market is gradually drifting away from Hollywood, which has triggered a lot of industry comments. As part of the deep integration of the two major economies, many experts in the early years believed that neither the Chinese market nor Hollywood could lack anyone. However, since the epidemic, public opinion has changed. Recently, Hollywood publications have used the term "decouple" directly to describe the current situation, and show that as early as the start of the trade war in 2018, Chinese importers stopped buying products from Independent American filmmakers; today, Hollywood blockbusters no longer take Chinese revenue and profits into account when making plans.
03 Looking forward to the mass production of domestic blockbusters
The lack of imported blockbusters in the waist of the film market, the only way and the best way is to use domestic blockbusters to remedy. The three highest-grossing films of 2021 have a fairly directional effect. "Chosin Lake" is led by three directors, set the industry's superior resources, give full play to the characteristics of the mainland, and trigger a national movie viewing boom after its release, which is not only a model of patriotic propaganda, but also represents the benchmark of China's film industrialization. This is another peak climbed by commercial blockbusters such as "Wise Tiger Mountain", "Mekong Action", "Red Sea Action" and so on. Looking forward to more than ten years ago, the "main theme" was almost synonymous with "not selling", but after the unremitting efforts and diligent exploration of Chinese filmmakers in recent years, the main theme finally excavated a channel for genre expression, and this road became wider and wider, becoming a magic weapon to save the market. As we all know, there are countless patriotic film materials that can never be finished, and what we lack is not touching deeds, but narrative skills to tell these deeds. The narrative of commercial blockbusters needs to put the audience in the first place, that is, there must be "people" in mind when making movies, which requires our filmmakers to restrain the willfulness of artists, and try to use artistic talents for communication with the audience, rather than imaginative self-intoxication.
The success of "Hello, Lee Huan Ying" proves the emotional power of the film. Sincere feelings, even if jerky but slightly funny narratives, can impress countless people. Compared with the stage when visual effects hit the world seven or eight years ago, it is a higher level to move people with emotions, and the show-off of visual effects and other technologies is time-sensitive, while the emotions are timeless. Of course, as with patriotism, the presentation of affection (and love and friendship) requires narrative skills, and the comedic element is to put wings on the story. From the perspective of return on investment, the film is probably the most beautiful scene that filmmakers (especially film investors) want to encounter.
"Hello, Li Huanying" was released in the first Spring Festival file after the epidemic, and it was difficult to find tickets on the first day of the New Year, setting a number of records in film history
Detective Chinatown 3 is the result of commercial calculations, and each of its composite genres presupposes the target demographic. This is a responsible attitude, but pushing it to the extreme will lose the natural nature of creation, making people feel a strong taste of recipe and hum with too much force. The decline in the film's reputation shows that "nothing is too much", perhaps it is really the curse of the series, but you can't deny that Chen Sicheng's grasp of the genre narrative is pure fire, which is also a rare pragmatism in the Chinese film industry where everyone wants to be a master. This can be proved in the eye-catching results of "Manslaughter 2" at the end of the year.
In addition to these three super blockbusters, the foreshadowing films also include dark horses such as "Fame and Fame", and films like "Turandot: The Origin of the Curse" that can't even earn back a fraction of the investment, and their stories and genres and the way they are told more or less convey the likes and dislikes of the current audience. It is conceivable that in the planning stage, "Turandot" must be a super blockbuster that is enough to conquer at home and abroad in the minds of investors and creators, but I did not expect that the validity period of this formula was so short. For such a large market in China, the diversification of film themes and styles cannot be abandoned, one is that different audiences have different pursuits, and the other is from the perspective of resolving risks, one type does not work, and the other may be unexpectedly welcomed.
Guan Xiaotong, Jiang Wen and other starring "Turandot" only grossed seven million at the box office on the first day
The preferences of film audiences have been changing, especially in the continent with rapid economic and cultural development, the development of movies often cannot catch up with the tastes of the audience, coupled with various uncontrollable external factors, the stories that occur in the industry are simply more peak and roundabout than the stories on the screen, with ups and downs. The healthy development of the industry, only three super blockbusters a year is far from enough, it requires a batch of successful products recognized by the market. That is to say, blockbusters must be mass-produced and cannot be invalidated because of the production cycle. Just as genre films need to appear at regular intervals (especially action movies and thrillers), the turbulence of the film market is also reasonable, as long as the mentality is good and the attitude is correct, you can usually find a happy ending of positive energy films.
In the foreseeable future, the mainstream blockbuster of patriotism will still lead the market, improve the production level of the industry, gather resources inside and outside the industry, meet the spiritual, emotional and entertainment needs of the public, and export the values of truth, goodness and beauty.
(Source: Tencent News)
* Part of the image is from the internet, and the cover image is from Visual China