Head of the Hawaii Volcano Observatory: The probability of another high-intensity eruption of the Tonga volcano is very small

The Paper's reporter Chen Qinhan

The submarine volcano of the South Pacific island nation of Tongahun Aha Apay Island erupted violently on the 14th and 15th, and although the whole disaster was still shrouded in volcanic ash, the outside world is very concerned about whether the volcano will be active again.

The Hon Aha Apay Island volcano has erupted several times in recent years, and the January 15 eruption is considered the largest in 30 years, and some geologists believe the volcano has awakened.

Another major eruption is not ruled out, but it is unlikely

"It is almost certain that there will also be low-grade volcanic activity at the Aha Apai Island volcano in Tongahun." Ken Hon, head of the Hawaii Volcano Observatory of the American Geological Survey, told the surging news (www.thepaper.cn) on the 19th that it is not excluded that another volcanic eruption of high intensity like the 15th is not ruled out, but the possibility is very small.

According to Hong Ken, any submarine volcano poses a significant threat when it erupts, and the risk factor depends on the type of volcano, what kind of magma is erupting and the height of the eruption. The Aha Apay Island volcano in Tongahun is a trench volcano, and this eruption is very unusual in terms of scale, and further analysis requires more information and data. Hong Ken believes that the Tonga Geological Survey has done a good job, because for submarine volcanoes, ensuring the continuous operation of monitoring equipment is a difficult task, "they monitored the early eruption of the volcano on the 14th, and issued a timely warning of a larger eruption and tsunami." ”

Will the volcanoes of the Pacific Rim "Ring of Fire" be implicated?

The Hon Aha Apay Island volcano is located in the Pacific Ring of Fire, an area that has a history of frequent earthquakes and volcanic activity, and many volcanoes in South America, North America, and Eurasia are concentrated in this "Ring of Fire". Whether the Tonga volcanic eruption will "move the whole body" has aroused concern.

Hón Ken believes that the eruption of Tonga's submarine volcano will not affect other volcanoes in the world. Although Hawaii also has volcanoes located in the Pacific Rim "Ring of Fire", they have not yet been found to have a large number of lava flows or other anomalies, but this does not mean that they will not erupt in the future.

Some Japanese experts have come to a similar conclusion about the current state of their volcanoes, showing that the shock waves from the eruption of The Tonga volcano did not have a disproportionate impact on the Japanese islands. However, Sunda Yoshiyuki, a professor at the Center for Seabed Exploration at Kobe University, wrote that from the two large eruptions in the history of Mt. Fuji, it is predicted that the next eruption is likely to occur around 2150, "However, given the uncertainty of this estimation method, we would do well to think that the eruption of Mt. Fuji is already in a state of imminent danger." If there is a major earthquake, Mt. Fuji will be 'on the verge of erupting'. ”

Responding to volcanic eruptions will now be a problem that many countries, especially small island developing States like Tonga, have to deal with. Hon Ken said global cooperation is needed to ensure that volcanic activity is monitored and that "we cannot leave such a burden entirely to a small country like Tonga".

Responsible editor: Hu Zhenqing Photo editor: Shi Jiahui

Proofreader: Liu Wei