The Washington Wizards drafted Bradley Beal on his birthday in 2012, a serendipitous fact that long-standing members of the organization mention to this day.
The Wizards and their franchise player retain a bond that has stuck through early injury issues in his career, the unfortunate derailing of star teammate John Wall due to injury and the failed Russell Westbrook experiment, among other misadventures.
The Washington Wizards selected Bradley Bill on his 2012 birthday, and the longest-running member of the Wizards still talks about this fortuitous fact to this day.
This allowed a bond between the Wizards and their star of the house, even as they experienced early injury problems, the unfortunate departure of star teammate John Wall due to injury, and the failure of the Westbrook experiment.
Washington is relying on that bond as it evaluates its options for the Feb. 10 trade deadline before what likely will be Beal's first foray into unrestricted free agency.
Beal has made it clear he doesn't plan to sign an extension and likely will skip his player option. That would make some teams nervous, but to this point there has been no real discussion of Beal on the trade market, league executives said.
The Wizards are preparing to roll the dice with the belief that Beal will re-sign.
Washington isn't the only franchise measuring risk before Feb. 10. League executives and agents are approaching this trade season as a referendum on risk tolerance. A number of teams are sitting on the fence, with major decisions surrounding star players looming less than a month before the deadline.
One issue Washington must consider before the Feb. 10 trade deadline is that it could be The first time Beal becomes an unrestricted free agent.
Beal has made it clear that he doesn't plan to renew his contract and may skip his player options. League executives say that will strain some teams, but so far, Beal hasn't had a real discussion in the player market.
The Wizards are going to bet that Bill will renew their contract.
Washington wasn't the only team at risk before February. League executives and agents will find better discrepancies for their teams and players this trading season. The deadline for major decisions around star players is less than a month.
Washington Wizards
Wizards owner Ted Leonsis, general manager Tommy Sheppard and Beal have a trust level and stay in communication. Beal was part of the decision to trade Westbrook last summer and was a lead recruiter in bringing in free agent Spencer Dinwiddie, team sources said. Beal and his family have forged a close relationship with new teammate Kentavious Caldwell-Pope.
Washington has another significant advantage.
A primary reason Beal isn't extending now is because with such a contract he could fashion a four-year deal worth $181 million. If he opts out and signs a totally new agreement, the Wizards can offer five years and $241 million. If he were to leave to go to another team this summer, his max deal would be four years and $179 million.
In short: If Beal is prioritizing guaranteed money, he has a $60 million incentive to stay.
Washington Wizards
Wizards owner Ted Lyonsis and general manager Tommy Shepard trust Bill and keep them connected. Team insiders said Beal was part of last summer's decision to trade Westbrook and was the main recruiter to bring in free agent Dinwiddie. Bill and his family developed a close relationship with new teammate Pope.
Washington has another significant advantage.
If Bill were to renew his contract now, he could reach a four-year contract worth $181 million. If he chooses to jump out of the contract, the Wizards could offer $241 million for five years. If he leaves for another team this summer, his top deal would be $179 million for four years.
In short: If Beal prioritizes contract extensions, he could take an extra $60 million.
That reality and the team's apparent willingness to eventually present a full five-year offer has led to a measure of calm within the organization about Beal's intentions. However, that does not mean there isn't risk to manage.
The Wizards started 13-7 but are just 10-14 since. They've improved since last season when they ended up with the No. 8 seed, but their positioning has slipped in a tougher Eastern Conference. They're a team that might be able to use a boost at the deadline -- and Beal could be watching.
"I've contributed to being here. I've committed to being here twice," Beal said in a recent interview with Yahoo Sports. "Now, I want to see that commitment to me, as well, that we can create a winning team here, a winning environment here."
This reality, along with the team's willingness to offer a full offer for a five-year period, has given the team a certain degree of confidence within the team about Beal's final decision. However, this does not mean that there is no risk.
The Wizards started with a 13-7 record, but have won just 10 of their 24 games since then. They have improved since finally finishing 8th last season, but in the tougher East they have dropped in their rankings. They're a team that could be looking for trades to reinforce by the deadline — and Beal may be on the sidelines.
"I've contributed here. In a recent interview with Yahoo Sports, Beal said: "I've committed to renewing my contract here twice. "Now, I also want to see the team's commitment to me that we can create a winning team here, a winning environment here.
Center Thomas Bryant has just returned after a yearlong recovery from a torn ACL to provide depth at center. As a result, rival executives believe the Wizards might entertain trading Montrezl Harrell as they look for help elsewhere.
The Wizards owe a protected first-round pick to the Oklahoma City Thunder, which limits their trading options, but they could modify it and have two first-round picks to trade. But without Beal under contract, that is a risk.
The Wizards are only $1.7 million under the luxury tax, meaning a trade that takes on money would cause some pause. But remaining inactive at the deadline to avoid the tax might send another message to Beal.
Center Thomas Bryant, who had been recuperating for a year from a torn anterior cruciate ligament, has just returned to provide interior depth. As a result, other team management believe the Wizards may seek a deal for Monterrezl Harrell.
The Wizards gave the protected first-round pick to the Oklahoma City Thunder, which lowered their trade tolerance, but they could trade with the first-round draft picks of the year after. But if Beal doesn't renew his contract, that's a risk.
The Wizards are only $1.7 million away from the luxury tax, which means they need to do some balancing in their salaries. But not doing so before the deadline to avoid paying taxes could provide Bill with a piece of information that is not good for him.
Philadelphia 76ers
The Sixers have been looking at the same hand for months, as president Daryl Morey hasn't seen a trade he liked for the disgruntled Ben Simmons. They are a good team and have been playing better of late, but they are not the great team they were last season when they earned the No. 1 seed in the East with Simmons playing.
Joel Embiid is having another spectacular season, and over the weekend he pointed out the Sixers were 21-9 (now 22-10) with him in the lineup. They are 9-2 since Christmas. For now, Embiid is sending the message that he isn't itching for a Simmons trade to bring him help for the playoffs.
Philadelphia 76ers
The 76ers haven't traded Simmons for months because Mo Dog hasn't seen his favorite deal about the disgruntled Ben Simmons. They're a good team and have played better lately, but they're not the great team that had Simmons last season and won first in the East.
Embiid is going through another spectacular season, with the 76ers playing in a 21-9 (now 22-10) record. They won 9 of the 11 games after Christmas. For now, Embiid is sending a message that he's not hungry for Simmons' deal to bring him playoff help.
"There's really no urgency to change anything. I think we got everything we need," Embiid said last week. "We're gonna keep on going, and I'm happy."
Here is the risky decision facing Philly: either wait out the Simmons market and don't import potential help for Embiid, or make a trade that doesn't bring back an All-Star but still takes advantage of what so far has been a healthy and productive Embiid season.
Embiid's mood on the matter and the support of owner Joshua Harris -- who has made sudden pivots away from patience in the past and is paying the luxury tax this season for a team he thought would be a title contender -- are variables to monitor in the coming weeks.
"There's really no need to rush to change anything. I think we got everything we needed," Embiid said last week. We're going to move on, and I'm happy.
Philadelphia's risky decision was to either wait for better chips and trade Simmons without adding potential help to Embiid, or trade non-All-Star players but still utilize Embiid, who has so far been healthy and efficient.
Embiid's views on the issue are supported by boss Joshua Harris, who has lost patience in the past and is willing to pay a luxury tax this season to win the title.
Utah Jazz
The Jazz have the No. 1 offense in the league by a relative mile, and before star defender Rudy Gobert went into the health and safety protocols earlier this month, they had the No. 5 defense. They have all the hallmarks of a championship contender, especially in superstar wing Donovan Mitchell.
But the past few weeks have seen some angst within the team. The defense collapsed with Gobert out, ranking 29th in the span, and a series of passive-aggressive actions in interviews and social media have followed.
Gobert and Mitchell have a history of tension that seems to have been inflamed, especially after Gobert praised the defensive intensity of Mitchell rival Devin Booker. It got to the point at which Jazz guard Jordan Clarkson issued a statement/plea for everyone to stop talking about one another and start playing defense.
The Jazz are number one offensively efficient this season, and earlier this month, rudy Gobert was fifth in defense before moving into health and safety deals. They have all the characteristics of a title contender, especially having star defender Donovan Mitchell.
But over the past few weeks, there has been some anxiety within the team. The defense collapsed, several games in which Gobert left, and the Jazz's defense ranked 29th, which was subsequently questioned by fans on the network.
The relationship between Gobert and Mitchell also seems to have become strained, especially after Gobert praised Mitchell's rival, Deven Booker, for his defensive intensity. Jazz guard Jordan Clarkson issued a statement pleading with everyone to stop talking about each other and start defending.
The Jazz have subsequently been poking around the market for wing defenders, sources said, as new CEO Danny Ainge might have a big decision to make. The Jazz are good enough on paper to win the West, but the demands on Gobert in the playoffs are immense, which contributed to a deeply disappointing loss to the LA Clippers in the postseason last year despite Clippers star Kawhi Leonard suffering a partially torn ACL.
The risk for Utah: trade away some of the offensive talent to help Gobert and turn down the heat between him and Mitchell, or ride out the quality team it built and hope the defense is good enough under pressure.
"They're seeing if they can find their own Aaron Gordon trade," a rival general manager said, referring to the move the Denver Nuggets made to pick up the versatile defender from the Orlando Magic before last season's trade deadline. "I'm not sure if they'll find it."
Sources said the Jazz have been looking for a defensively good forward because new team manager Danny Angie could make big decisions. While the Jazz can win any Western conference team on paper, the demands on Gobert in the playoffs are enormous. Despite the Clippers losing Leonard last year, the Jazz lost to the Los Angeles Clippers, which was deeply disappointing.
Utah's risk: Add some offensive talent to help Gobert, share the scoring pressure for Mitchell, or build a quality team that's better defensive.
Another team's general manager said they were trying to get nuggets' Aaron Gordon. I'm not sure if they can get him.
The player who most closely resembles that who might be available is Detroit Pistons forward Jerami Grant, but the Jazz might not be able to win a bidding contest if it comes to that. The Jazz have limited draft picks to offer in a deal -- they already owe two future first-rounders and four second-rounders elsewhere over the next five years -- and they lack attractive young talent.
Joe Ingles, who has played all eight of his NBA seasons for the Jazz, is well aware of this front-office conundrum and is mentally preparing for the unknown of deadline season. He's in the final year of his contract, was in trade talks last offseason and has seen his numbers drop this year.
"If they decide they need to do something I would be happy for them if they thought they were getting better. I do love this organization and the city. We're all here for the same reason -- we're here to try to win a championship and be the first [Jazz] team to do it," Ingles said on his weekly radio appearance in Salt Lake City this month. "If I could be a piece that helps them do that, then I'd still feel pretty good about it. I'd be disappointed that I wasn't here for it, but I'd be happy for a lot of people."
Bojan Bogdanovic is two years younger than Ingles, is having another excellent season and has one year left on his deal. This makes him more attractive in a trade.
With the roster aging -- Ingles is 34, Bogdanovic is soon to be 33 and guard Mike Conley is 34 -- and the simmering Gobert-Mitchell dynamic, it might not be time to wait and see in Utah.
What they want most is Detroit Pistons forward Jerami Grant, but the Jazz may not be able to compete with other teams for him. The Jazz have limited draft picks on a deal — they've already sent two first-rounders and four second-round picks in the next five years — and they lack attractive youngsters.
Ingles, who played for the Jazz for all eight seasons, is well aware of the current team's difficulties and is ready to be traded by the trade deadline. He's entered the final year of his contract, didn't renew his contract early with the team last offseason, and this year his stats have declined.
"If they decide they need to do something, if they think they're getting better, I'll be happy for them." I do love this team and the city. In a weekly radio interview in Salt Lake City this month, Ingles said: "We're all here for the same reason — we're here to win a championship and win the first championship for the Jazz. "If I can be the one who helps them do that, then I'll still be happy about it." But I will be disappointed that I am not one of the people who helped the team win the championship, but I will be happy for them. ”
Bogdanovic is two years younger than Ingles and has another fantastic season, with his contract expiring next year. That makes him more attractive in the team.
As the team ages — Ingles is 34, Bogdanovic is about to turn 33, Mike Conley is 34 — and the delicate relationship between Gobert and Mitchell, it's possible that the Jazz need to make some changes.