The psychology behind investing
Let me tell you an incredible story.
Elizabeth Holmes, founder of Theranos, a startup specializing in blood testing, claims that their company's medical technology can achieve "blood testing for cancer", that is, just one drop of blood can detect more than 200 blood indicators!
When Holmes first explained her health concept to a group of investors to obtain financing, a group of bigwigs, including former US Secretary of State Schultz and the executives of Walgreens, the largest drug store chain in the United States, did not have any doubts, but chose to believe Holmes.
But the big guys also have "collective eyes" times. Holmes's remarks were eventually proven to be false, and even the medical services and reports that his entire company could provide were false, and eventually Holmes was sentenced for fraud, and the "blood test for cancer" was directly destroyed.
But why did the big guys who had been in the battlefield and read countless people choose to invest heavily at the beginning?
This has to mention people's "investment psychology".
In the world of venture capital, there is a mindset known as FoMO (Fear of Missing Out), or "fear of missing out."
For wealthy investors, in the face of vague unknown areas and things, many people have an investment psychology that they would rather regret than miss.
After all, the larger the enterprise, the higher the opportunity cost required, and once it misses an investment in an emerging technology or emerging field, the gap will be wider and wider with its opponents.
When Holmes attracted financing, he took advantage of this psychology of investors, so there was a legend of using a drop of blood to become the youngest female richest woman in the United States.
Of course, the existence of this "FoMO" psychology of investors is largely affected by an uncertainty in the economic market itself.
However, with the changes in the general environment and various fields, people's investment psychology should also have a corresponding change.
entrepreneurship
As one of the investment directions, the degree of difficulty and change of entrepreneurship also has a certain sense of reference for the feedback of the investment environment.
Lei Jun once said that standing on the wind outlet, pigs can also fly.
In fact, even if it really encounters the wind, it is very rare for a company that can withstand the test and survive. While seeing the success of industry giants, we should also know that the companies that have disappeared behind the competition are full of people.
Even Evergrande, which is riding the wind of real estate development, is in danger when the real estate cools down.
Even the "Red Rabbit", once known as the Chinese version of the LinkedIn, disappeared at the time of the rise of the Internet due to a lack of thinking about corporate profit models and market positioning.
In the past, everyone thought that with a little capital, coupled with their own diligence and efforts, and perhaps a little talent, they could basically succeed.
But now, the limited resources, coupled with the existence of a certain degree of saturation in the market, but also facing the arrival of uncertain events such as the epidemic, the survival of enterprises has a severe test.
real estate
In 1998, the "Notice of the State Council on Further Deepening the Reform of the Housing System and Accelerating Housing Construction" was promulgated, and the welfare housing was cancelled, and housing began to take the road of commercialization and marketization.
Since then, China's real estate industry has embarked on a thriving path.
In 2003, the state positioned the real estate industry as a pillar industry of the national economy, mainly to encourage real estate investment and stimulate economic development.
After that, a group of investors have entered the industry, in the country, especially in the first and second-tier cities, a series of high-rise buildings, the number of developers rose explosively, in just a few decades, China's urbanization has formed rapidly, the current per capita housing area in cities and towns has exceeded 40 square meters, and the number of housing units has exceeded 1, which can be said to have created a miracle in the history of world real estate.
It has also created a number of batches of the richest people such as Li Ka-shing and Wang Jianlin, as well as housing giants such as Country Garden and Evergrande.
Although there was a brief period of darkness in the real estate industry in 2008, it has rebounded since then.
In 2011, the state also said that it would promote the healthy development of the real estate market and increase the construction of affordable housing.
However, with the gradual construction of urbanization, the demographic dividend gradually disappears, and the development of the real estate industry is facing a severe situation.
And just past 2021, the state's regulation, the cooling of the property market, the real estate industry ushered in the coldest winter that people think, 20 years of the golden age of the real estate industry has really come to an end?
Economist Mr. Ma Guangyuan said that the current real estate industry is facing low temperatures, the main reasons are three, one is that in general, the supply and demand relationship of houses is basically balanced, the second is the gradual decline in population growth rate, and the third is that the current house prices are at a high level.
Of course, the state insists on not speculating in housing, and the relevant regulations given at the same time also have a considerable impact.
Although the real estate industry ushered in a low temperature, many head real estate companies have fallen in the past year. However, in the long run, the status of the real estate industry as a pillar industry of the economy will not change.
First, the life of the house is limited, although the current supply and demand of the house is basically balanced, but the future will also face upgrading.
Second, in the future low-carbon development and low-carbon economy, the proportion of real estate construction industry is not small.
At present, the demographic dividend has disappeared, and many cities will shrink in the future, so the investment in the real estate industry needs to be comprehensively judged in combination with the inflow and outflow of the city's population.
Real estate "looks at finance in the short term, looks at land in the medium term, and looks at population in the long term"
internet
In February 1998, the first online search engine with Chinese, Sohu.com, was established.
Then, the young people who saw the prospects began to lay out in the industry.
With the continuous development of network information technology, the road ahead of the industry seems to be more and more open.
In terms of the impact on the lives of residents, the emergence of shopping platforms such as JD.com and Taobao has led to the rise of online and other e-commerce companies, changing people's previous shopping methods, and some carnival shopping festivals every year have driven huge resident consumption.
WeChat and Alipay have changed people's payment methods, while Meituan and Ele.me are working catering.
The emergence of live broadcast platforms such as short videos, Internet celebrities have also become the dream of some people, and live streaming with goods has become the road for many people to get rich at present.
For the wealthy population, a considerable number of people have taken advantage of the development of the Internet to accumulate a lot of wealth, and even jumped into the ranks of the rich. Nearly half of the world's top ten high-tech companies started on the Internet.
Under the current circumstances, with the continuous passage of time and the emergence of relevant regulatory policies, the standardization of the Internet industry has been further improved, and the rectification of industry chaos is also to save the industry from the bad.
In the long run, the Internet is also one of the inevitable directions for future development, and the arrival of 5G is a further boost.
Former Universe
Metaverse is one of the top ten buzzwords of the year in 2021, as a man-made space that operates parallel to the real world, and is also considered the next stage of the Internet, a virtual reality network world powered by AR, VR, 3D and other technologies.
At present, this field is a popular investment and construction area that major corporate giants are flocking to.
For example, Facebook changed its name to Meta, NVIDIA released Omniverse to provide the basic underlying service architecture, Microsoft built an "enterprise metacosm", Byte invested in Pico, Tencent explored the true Internet, Ali consolidated its technical pillars; more emerging companies took advantage of this dividend to emerge, such as Roblox's open sandbox game platform, Unity's virtual technology engine has opened up a new world for it.
Even Naixue's tea, PepsiCo, Adidas and other corporate brands that do not rely on the Internet to start are also making plans here.
On the occasion of the sixth anniversary, Nesher's tea officially announced its entry into the meta-universe, launching the virtual person NAYUKI, and taking the lead in launching its own NFT digital collection in China, with limited distribution and 72 hours of sales exceeding 190 million
Adidas followed suit, releasing a limited edition of 3176 POAP (Proof of Attendance Protocol), announcing the start of a massive expansion of its metaverse world.
Pepsi Launch launched a series named after the Pepsi Mic Drop genesis NFT to commemorate the specific NFTs produced by the birth of Pepsi In 1893.
The emerging megacosm of the hot field seems to have a lot of potential at present, and when people still know nothing about it, many corporate brands such as Nesher's tea have achieved sales profitability through marketing means.
Of course, there are not a few voices of opposition, and many investors believe that when the situation is not clear, it is not appropriate to be too "on the top", who knows whether it is just a flash in the pan?
By listing the above part of the hot areas where people invest directly or indirectly today, we can see that whether it is the real estate industry that has experienced the golden age, or the Internet industry that is still developing, both are actually facing challenges and tests in today's era, but the degree is different.
This is still the case in the hot investment areas, not to mention other areas.
While the market is complicated, it can also be seen that when people invest in emerging fields, they are no longer as desperate as in the past to "get on the ship".
The data of the "2021 White Paper on Wealth Risk Management of China's High-Net-Worth Individuals" also shows that today, high-net-worth individuals have changed in personal wealth management, and 37% of the population has become more conservative, more sensitive to risk, less willing to take risks, and more concerned about wealth preservation.
At the moment when the risks are superimposed and the market environment is uncertain, if you are not careful, you will lose everything.
Especially in the post-epidemic era, for the wealthy population, investment should be more prudent, rather than missed, not wrong. Protect your wealth and leave the bag to be safe.