Explain in detail the small regrets behind the 1 billion box office of "Kung Fu Panda 3"

"Kung Fu Panda 3" won the box office championship of mainland animation films

On February 27, the Sino-US co-production animation film "Kung Fu Panda 3" exceeded 957 million yuan at the mainland box office, surpassing "The Return of the Great Sage of Journey to the West" to become the box office champion of mainland animation films. With the key extended by a month, it has the potential to become the first animated film to gross more than $1 billion.

For "Kung Fu Panda 3", reaching the top of the mainland animation film box office champion, just one step away from the 1 billion box office, this achievement sounds dazzling enough, and it is also the best level of the mainland animation film box office. However, if you look back at the historical achievements of the first two parts of "Kung Fu Panda" and look at the 3 billion market potential of "Mermaid" released at the same time, the box office of "Kung Fu Panda 3" is still a bit regrettable, and the box office potential it should have been has not been fully tapped.

In 2008, the box office of the first "Kung Fu Panda" was 150 million yuan, and the number of screens in domestic theaters at that time was 4,000. In 2011, "Kung Fu Panda 2" grossed 608 million yuan, winning the second place in the box office in 2011, when the number of screens in domestic theaters was about 8,000.

By 2016, the number of screens in domestic theaters had increased to 32,000, four times the number of screens five years ago. Before the release, "Kung Fu Panda 3" was full of confidence, and the film's box office target was probably not less than 1 billion. On January 23, "Kung Fu Panda 3" received 40 million yuan at the box office in only 3 hours after it was screened, winning the box office record of the mainland animation film on demand. At that time, in the eyes of some industry insiders, the film reached 1.5 billion or even 2 billion at the box office, and it was not impossible to create a new record.

Kung Fu Panda 3 is the first collaboration between China and the United States on animated filmmaking. The Chinese lip-sync setting tailored for Chinese audiences, coupled with the all-star dubbing lineup composed of Jackie Chan, Huang Lei, Bai Baihe, Jay Chou, etc., makes this movie the "most Chinese-flavored" animation blockbuster. In order to take care of the Chinese market, scheduled to be released on January 29, which is a deserted schedule in North America and even the world, DreamWorks Animation CEO Jeffrey Katzenberg, the "eccentricity" of this film can be described as obvious to all.

So why, on earth, did this film, which had high hopes, behave decently? Is the schedule not selected well? Word of mouth did not explode? Competitors too strong in the same period? Or do animated films have a box office ceiling? In the end, summarizing any reason at this moment is inevitably suspected of being an afterthought, and we try to talk about the regrets behind the achievements of "Kung Fu Panda 3" with a rational and objective attitude.

Didn't choose a good schedule?

Enough to take care of the Chinese audience, the Spring Festival and the cold tide

If the schedule of "Kung Fu Panda 3" is not selected well, then the big guys of "DreamWorks" must be unhappy in their hearts. In fact, the schedule of this movie must have been carefully selected.

"Kung Fu Panda 3" was selected to be released simultaneously in Chinese mainland and North America on January 29, which can be said to be tailor-made for the Chinese market. Previously, not only DreamWorks Animation, but also big-budget animation films from other blockbuster studios rarely chose to be released in January in North America. Because January and February are the low tide slots in North America, the popular slots in North America are mainly summer slots, Thanksgiving slots, and Christmas slots.

But February was the hottest period for the Chinese film market, with the mainland film market grossing a record 6.87 billion yuan (about US$1.049 billion) in February this year, about US$250 million (about 1.638 billion yuan) higher than the North American market in the same period, Chinese mainland surpassing North America for the first time in the same period, becoming the world's highest-grossing film market in the same period.

For animated films released in China, there are three most common "good slots": winter vacation slots, summer holiday slots and "June 1st Children's Day slots". "Kung Fu Panda 3" chose to be released on January 29, which can not only catch up with the "winter vacation file", but also cover the hottest Spring Festival slot of the year, which seems to be a "perfect strategy" that will not be lost.

However, "Kung Fu Panda 3" and the hottest Spring Festival file are a week apart, but it is the gap of this week that makes it lose the possibility of impacting the box office of 1.5 billion or even 2 billion.

According to Liu Jia, a market research expert at the Industry Research Center of the China Filmmakers Association, the box office of "Kung Fu Panda 3" is greatly affected by the schedule. "The first two parts of "Kung Fu Panda" were selected to be released in the summer slot, so the box office performance was very outstanding, because in the summer slot, there is no particularly big festival, but it was selected to be released in the winter vacation, which will be greatly affected by the Spring Festival slot. Usually the box office of an animated film, in the first week, is not particularly outstanding, it is affected by word of mouth, there will be a long-term explosion. ”

Liu Jia analyzed, "In the first week of the release of "Kung Fu Panda 3", due to the impact of the Spring Festival, coupled with the cold wave weather raging, the overall market was very sluggish, and its box office performance was flat. In the second week of release, it encountered an unprecedented Spring Festival stall, and its schedule was seriously squeezed, so it was difficult to rush higher, and it could only maintain a steady income. Song Lei, director of the Development Research Department of China Animation Group, believes that "although it has been squeezed by the schedule, it can also be regarded as enjoying the dividends of the Spring Festival slot, and if there is no such market explosion, its box office may not be close to one billion." ”

It seems a pity that "Kung Fu Panda 3" chose a schedule that is enough to take care of Chinese audiences, but still does not understand China's national conditions enough. For the Chinese people, the "Spring Festival" and the New Year are more important than watching movies!

There are positive reviews but word of mouth has not exploded?

Lack of word-of-mouth ignition points like "The Return of the Great Sage"

Due to the presence of the first two pearls of "Kung Fu Panda", the word-of-mouth pressure of this "Kung Fu Panda 3" is indeed not small. On the time network, "Kung Fu Panda 3" scored as high as 7.6 points, purely from the quality of the film, it still received a lot of praise, whether it is the movie's 3D effect, story setting, or specially customized Chinese lip type, can be said to be remarkable. Even if it does not have the amazing effect of the first "Kung Fu Panda", but there are many praises, why has its reputation not exploded widely?

In Song Lei's view, this is mainly a matter of judging standards. "Although this film is a Sino-US co-production, although nearly one-third of the scenes in the whole film are made Chinese mainland, in the hearts of the audience, 'Kung Fu Panda 3' is still an 'animated blockbuster', even an animated blockbuster with a strong Hollywood color. There are usually many such films, but it does not have a particularly big breakthrough, at least there is no creative breakthrough like "Frozen" or "Mind Task Force". The audience will feel good after watching it, but there are not many highlights that can cause the topic effect, and it lacks the same word-of-mouth ignition point as "The Return of the Great Sage". ”

Song Lei explained, "'The Return of the Great Sage' is a completely domestic animation film, and it is the first widely recognized domestic animation film, from the perspective of mobilizing the national pride of "tap water", "The Return of the Great Sage" will of course have an advantage. As a "Ah Bao" of mixed Chinese and American descent, it is difficult to compare with the native "Qi Tian Dasheng". "The Return of the Great Sage" is not even an 'animated blockbuster', but it has a very burning emotion running through it, and it is easy to trigger spontaneous recommendations from the audience. ”

Competitors too strong in the same period?

Domestic film groups are coming, and the marketing in the later stage is weak

If the competitors of "Kung Fu Panda 3" are too strong, it is actually not very accurate. In fact, due to the early setting of "Kung Fu Panda 3", in the winter vacation of 2016, many domestic animation films have avoided it. The "Bear Haunting" series of animated films, "The Return of the Bear's Heart", which has been released during the winter vacation for three consecutive years, chose to stagger half a month and be released on January 16. The only anime released at the same time as Kung Fu Panda 3 is "Rat Noble 4: Moe in the Road", "Nian Beast Battle" and "Frozen Adventure of the Frog Kingdom", as well as the Japanese anime movies "Saint Seiya" and "Naruto" at the end of February, which also have a clear distinction in audiences. It can be said that in the field of animated films, "Kung Fu Panda 3" has not encountered direct competitors.

However, "Kung Fu Panda 3" encountered the strongest domestic film group in history during the Spring Festival period. "The Mermaid", released during the Spring Festival, swept the 3 billion box office and topped the mainland box office, while "Three Dozen White Bone Essences" and "Macau Storm 3" also crossed the 1 billion box office mark.

Film market expert Jiang Yong analyzed, "In the face of the complex and ever-changing Chinese film market, DreamWorks Animation and Oriental DreamWorks are a little overconfident. Indeed, the three domestic blockbusters released during the Spring Festival have all done their best to show their magic in marketing and distribution. Even in a blockbuster like "The Mermaid", director Zhou Xingchi also ran a roadshow in 20 cities non-stop, which can be described as "brutal".

During the Spring Festival, the marketing momentum of "Kung Fu Panda 3" gradually weakened, lacking a strong second round of marketing actions, and even overshadowed by opponents. After the release of the film, there was also a lack of positive guidance for word of mouth. Moreover, in the early stage of the release of the three domestic blockbusters, they spent a lot of money on the e-commerce platform to make up for the huge amount of tickets, which is probably also the short board of "Kung Fu Panda 3", so in the scheduling, it can only occupy the inferiority.

Because of the disadvantages of scheduling, the children's audience market that "Kung Fu Panda 3" should have firmly grasped did not grasp well during the Spring Festival. During the Spring Festival, the author went to the theater to see "Three Dozen White Bone Essences" and "Mermaid", and saw a number of children about three or five years old, who were taken into the movie hall by their parents to watch these two movies. Because the content of the film is biased towards adulthood, the children have been crying and can't watch it at all, which should have been the target audience of "Kung Fu Panda 3"! It's a shame.

It seems that the competitors that Kung Fu Panda 3 faces are not only strong, but also more "hard". This also gives Hollywood filmmakers a wake-up call: although the cake of the Chinese film market is large, the competition is equally fierce, and the era of wanting to "make money with your eyes closed" has long passed, and how to be more competitive in marketing and distribution, and grab the limited "wallet" of the audience, it is worth pondering.

Animated films have box office ceilings?

"Family Fun" cartoons have great potential at the box office

It is worth noting that "Kung Fu Panda 3" has good box office momentum, adhering to word of mouth with good quality, becoming the only film with a daily increase in box office during the Spring Festival, and has maintained a stable income during the winter vacation. As of March 2, the box office of "Kung Fu Panda 3" has reached 978 million, and since most schools have entered the opening stage, its box office revenue trend has slowed down significantly.

Last summer, "The Return of the Great Sage" won 950 million at the box office, this year's "Kung Fu Panda 3" slowly hovered when it was close to the 1 billion box office, while other animated films were difficult to overcome the 300 million box office hurdle. Is it true that for domestic animation films, 1 billion is the ceiling of the box office?

Liu Jia analyzed, "The consumption energy of Chinese audiences is huge, and it cannot be said which kind of movie has a box office ceiling. "The Return of the Great Sage" is an era in which domestic animation has been improved by the whole people. The previous domestic animation films were dominated by the low and young market, and the 296 million box office created by "Bear Haunted Snow Ridge Majestic Wind" in 2015 was already the high point of the low and young market, and the "Pleasant Goat" series of animated films, due to the box office declining year by year, did not do it again this year. Domestic animation films suitable for audiences of all ages are still just beginning their infancy, and it cannot be said that 1 billion is the box office ceiling of animated films. ”

Song Lei also agreed with this view, telling reporters, "In the North American market, a successful animated film may reach 300-500 million US dollars at the box office." From this point of view, even if domestic moving movies get 1 billion yuan at the box office, the conversion to the past is only about 152 million US dollars, there is still a gap. Animated films can account for 10% of the overall market volume, according to the Chinese film market continues to catch up, and even gradually surpass the trend of the United States, the box office of animated films may be higher, and the box office potential of 'family fun' animation films is very large. ”