Li Dingxin: Historical long-term factors and external challenges affecting the stability of the Eurasian region
Author: Li Dingxin is a researcher at the Center for Contemporary World Studies, International Liaison Department of the CPC Central Committee
Source: Contemporary World, No. 1, 2022; Contemporary World
WeChat platform editor: Zhou Yue
Ukrainian President Zelenskiy (center) inspects Ukrainian government positions in the Donbass region on April 8, 2021. (Xinhua News Agency photo)
2021 is the 30th anniversary of the collapse of the Soviet Union, and due to special historical, geopolitical and other factors, the Eurasian region has been widely concerned by the international community. Since 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic has had a significant and far-reaching impact on the global economy and politics, and the Eurasian region has been in turmoil. The concept of "Eurasia" has a variety of geographical interpretations, and the "Eurasia" defined in this article is a region composed of 12 republics of the Soviet Union in addition to the three Baltic States, and can also be referred to as "post-Soviet space".
In recent years, the security situation inside and outside the Eurasian region has continued to deteriorate, facing many risks and challenges. On the one hand, the situation in the eastern region of Ukraine continues to deteriorate, intensify, and is on the verge of war, Azerbaijan and Armenia have broken out war over territorial issues, the situation in the Transnistrian region is unstable, the "color revolution" in Belarus is beginning to emerge, especially the hasty and disorderly withdrawal of us troops from Afghanistan has led to a sudden change in the geopolitical situation in the Eurasian region, and the Eurasian space has shown a multi-point oscillation and fermentation trend. On the other hand, the United States has taken the lead in forming two geopolitical and military groups, namely the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QUAD) mechanism between the United States, Japan, India and Australia, and the Trilateral Security Alliance (AUKUS), plus the military intelligence groups "Five Eyes Alliance" and "Group of Seven" to form a strategic encirclement of the Eurasian region. In this context, the geopolitical situation and strategic pattern trend in the Eurasian region are particularly noteworthy. Once the "same frequency resonance" is formed between a number of "ulcer points" in The Eurasian region and the encirclement circle from the ocean, the geopolitical pattern of the region may enter a new major adjustment cycle under the action of internal and external forces.
The Eurasian region has gone from "chaos" to "governance" in 30 years
After the collapse of the Soviet Union, disputes, conflicts, and even wars between countries in the Eurasian region occurred from time to time, the activities of the "three forces" (violent terror, ethnic separatism, and religious extremism) were frequent, and "color revolutions" under the guise of so-called "liberal democracy" rose and fell one after another. On the whole, the regional situation has shown a changing trend from "chaos" to "governance."
The period from 1991 to 2001 was the first stage of the evolution of the geopolitical pattern in Eurasia, which was characterized by the initial determination of the overall situation, mutual run-in, and chaotic changes. The republics of the former Soviet Union have vigorously fought for national independence and safeguarded their sovereignty, and some countries have even confronted each other over contradictions such as territory, borders, ethnicities and religions. The "De left" issue (the status of the Transnistrian region of Moldova) arising from the process of Moldova's independence is the key to the dispute between Russia and Moldova, which has been plaguing peace and development in the region, and which remains unresolved. Ethnic, religious, and border issues in the Caucasus also intensified after the collapse of the Soviet Union. In addition to the Chechen conflict, there is a border dispute between Russia's North Ossetia and the Republic of Ingushetia. Georgia and Russia are at odds over issues such as South Ossetia. Relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan have long been at odds over the Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Region (Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Region) question. Central Asia is also rife with rising nationalist sentiment and religious extremism, with unrest and small border clashes.
The period 2001-2013 was the second stage of the evolution of the geopolitical pattern in Eurasia, characterized by the game between the United States and Russia, the joint efforts between China and Russia, and the rule of chaos. Russia under Putin changed the policy of "throwing off the baggage" for Central Asia and other countries in the early days of the collapse of the Soviet Union, began to attach importance to relations with Central Asian countries, and tried to promote Eurasian regional integration. The United States took advantage of the "9/11" terrorist attacks to overthrow the Afghan Taliban regime, and at the same time established military bases in Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan with russia's acquiescence, objectively forming a game with Russia in the Eurasian region. In 2008, the European Union proposed an "Eastern Partnership" initiative to develop economic cooperation with Ukraine, Moldova, Belarus, Georgia, Azerbaijan and Armenia, seeking to unravel Russia's ambitions to integrate the Eurasian region. In the face of the squeeze of US and European forces, Russia's influence on Eurasian countries, which is still in the process of recovering and adjusting, has declined. The three Baltic states joined NATO and the European Union in 2002 and 2004; the GUAM group of Georgia, Ukraine, Azerbaijan, Moldova and Uzbekistan tried to compete with Russia; the "Rose Revolution" in Georgia, the "Orange Revolution" in Ukraine, the violent seizure of power in Kyrgyzstan, and the "Andijan Riots" in Uzbekistan. At the same time, however, the "Shanghai Five" meeting mechanism, which has the mission of resolving the border issues between China and the newly independent Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, was upgraded to the Shanghai Cooperation Organization in 2001, and the Central Asian countries profoundly realized that it is necessary to further deepen mutually beneficial cooperation with China and Russia and work together to establish a stable and secure regional environment, so as to help their countries get out of their historical inertia, open up a new situation in which the people live and work in peace and contentment, and the country prospers and develops, a kind of mutual trust, mutual benefit, equality, consultation, respect for diverse civilizations, and the pursuit of common development." The Spirit of Shanghai" gradually took shape. The "Shanghai Spirit" has become a new norm for inter-state relations jointly recognized by the SCO member states, a new norm for pioneering and innovating regional cooperation models, and a "fixing needle" for maintaining basic stability in the regional situation.
The period from 2013 to 2019 is the third stage of the evolution of the geopolitical pattern in the Eurasian region, which is characterized by the tightening of the encirclement circle by external forces and the prominent contradiction between regional countries seeking stability and development. In 2013, with the support of the West, a second "color revolution" broke out in Ukraine, the Poroshenko government came to power, and the Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts in eastern Ukraine declared their separation and fought against the Ukrainian government forces. Although Crimea was incorporated into Russia by referendum, NATO's military assistance to Ukraine actually brought its power to the Russian-Ukrainian border, and Russia's influence in the region was compressed to the Luhansk-Donetsk-Mariupol-Azov-Crimea line, and there was basically no way out. The United States and Europe used the Crimea issue as the reason to impose the harshest political suppression and economic sanctions against Russia since the end of the Cold War. NATO has seized the opportunity to expand its armaments and establish new military bases in the three Baltic states and the central and Eastern European countries. Nevertheless, the countries concerned are actively pursuing socio-economic development. In 2012, Ceeoche and Eastern European countries and China launched an annual leaders' meeting mechanism, aiming to make good use of China's advantages in equipment manufacturing and infrastructure construction to meet the needs of their own infrastructure upgrading and improve the level of economic development. In 2013, Chinese President Xi Jinping put forward the major initiative of the "Silk Road Economic Belt" in Kazakhstan, which was generally welcomed by Eurasian countries, further reflecting the urgent mood of regional countries to seek stability and development.
Since 2020, the geopolitical evolution of the Eurasian region has ushered in the fourth stage. In the context of the spread of the new crown pneumonia epidemic, the turmoil and conflict in the Eurasian region tend to intensify. In February 2020, there were violent clashes between Kazakhs and Dungans in Kazakhstan; in April, border clashes between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan; in June, border clashes between Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan; in August, large-scale protests erupted in Belarus due to dissatisfaction with the process and outcome of the election; war broke out in Armenia and Azerbaijan in the Nagorno-Karabakh region in September; and in October, kyrgyzstan's internal political instability led to regime change. Although the "Normandy Mechanism" has been restarted and actively operated, there are still serious differences between Russia and Ukraine on issues such as special status law, border control, and local elections in the Minsk Agreement. In addition, in early 2021, there was another outbreak of mass protests against the authorities in Russia. A series of events in the Eurasian region since 2020 show that the evolution of the situation in the region has entered a new period, and various contradictions and conflicts that have been frozen for a long time may suddenly erupt again in the future, or may lead to a reshuffle of the geopolitical pattern in the Eurasian region.
Refugees gather in The Grodno Oblast of Belarus near the Polish border on November 9, 2021. (Xinhua News Agency photo)
The long-term cyclical factor in history is the situation in Eurasia
The internal cause of the oscillation
Territorial disputes and ethnic and religious contradictions that exist among some Eurasian countries are the primary historical and long-term factors leading to regional conflicts, confrontations and even wars. Countries in the Eurasian region have signed a large number of bilateral and multilateral agreements, and have also carried out economic, political, security and other fields of cooperation, but the role of safety valves and stabilizers is not significant. Ethnic and religious contradictions and territorial disputes in The Eurasian region have existed for a long time, and in many cases, the three have been superimposed and fermented, making the situation between relevant countries complex and changeable, and resisting conflicts. In the mid-to-late 1980s, nationalist sentiment spread in some of the Soviet republics, and after these countries gained independence, the ethnic problem did not alleviate on a large scale, but intensified in some regions. Georgia's South Ossetia Autonomous Oblast is mainly inhabited by five ethnic groups, of which 66.2% of the total population of South Ossetia have developed a demand for independence, Georgia has a tough attitude towards this, and the two sides are constantly in conflict. In 1991, the first President of Georgia, Gamsakhulti, preached "Greater Georgianism" and abolished the languages of Russian, Ossetian and other ethnic groups, which intensified the contradictions between different religious beliefs and awakened the pre-existing nationalist movements in Abkhazia and South Ossetia, and the evolution of this ethno-religious dispute resulted in the declaration of independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. The Nagorno-Karabakh region, located in southwestern Azerbaijan, was the focus of contention between Azerbaijan and Armenia before the collapse of the Soviet Union, and in September 2020 a new round of conflict broke out since the independence of the two countries. In the Azerbaijani-controlled Nagorno-Karabakh region, where about 80 percent of the population before the outbreak of the war were predominantly Christian Armenians, while azerbaijanis living in the region were mostly Shia Muslims, Armenia accused Azerbaijan of holding different standards towards Nagorno-Karabakh and other parts of the country, and ethnic and religious differences once again became the core triggers for tension between neighboring countries. The situation in Ukraine is full of twists and turns, and from the superficial point of view, the major powers are fiercely competing for their respective strategic security and geopolitical interests, deploying heavy troops around the eastern region of Ukraine, and the crisis is hanging in the balance, but it is undeniable that the eastern and western parts of Ukraine are dominated by the Russian and Ukrainian ethnic groups, and the historical grievances between the two ethnic groups of Russia and Ukraine are entangled with the actual interests of territory and energy, resulting in external forces taking advantage of the void to intervene, which is the fundamental reason for the long-term delay in the Ukrainian issue.
The overall economic downturn in Eurasian countries has continued since independence, which is the second historical long-term factor inducing political turmoil in regional countries. As the most influential country in the region, for a long time after Independence, Russia's economic reform effect was not outstanding, the economic transformation did not make significant progress, the single energy export-dependent economy often fluctuated with the ups and downs of the world energy market, and the economic downturn even affected the national unity of Russia, resulting in its lack of time to take more care of the economic development of other countries in the Eurasian region. As former Soviet republics, most of the Eurasian countries have closely related and complementary economic relations with Russia, which has not fundamentally changed. On the whole, the economies of the countries in the Eurasian region are characterized by small size, single economic structure, and significant external influences. The economic crises of 1997 and 2008 had a negative impact on the economies of Eurasian countries, and the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 further exacerbated the downward pressure on the economies of countries in the region. According to the Eurasian Economic Commission, the gross domestic product (GDP) of Eurasian Economic Union members as a whole has recovered in 2021, and the growth rate may be more than 3%, but it still faces a variety of risks and challenges. The widening gap between rich and poor in countries such as Azerbaijan, Armenia, Kyrgyzstan and Belarus, and the long-term depression and anxiety of the people, have also become one of the important internal factors that have contributed to the recurrence of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict in 2020 and the political turmoil in belarus and Kyrgyzstan. Overall, with the exception of a few countries and relatively good statistics in certain years, the economic development of countries in the Eurasian region is generally weak, which provides an opportunity for the rise of ultra-nationalist and religious extremist forces and aggravates regional instability.
After taking over the mantle of the Soviet Union, Russia's comprehensive national strength once declined sharply, and then it was gradually restored by President Putin's efforts to govern, but it has not yet reached the peak level of the Soviet Union, and it is difficult to more effectively resist the intrusion of some foreign countries into its traditional "sphere of influence", which is the third historical long-term factor affecting the regional situation. On the one hand, in order to safeguard the traditional geopolitical interests in the Eurasian region and regain regional leadership, since the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia has led the establishment of multilateral mechanisms such as the Commonwealth of Independent States, the Collective Security Treaty Organization, and the Eurasian Economic Union, and proposed the "Greater Eurasian Partnership", demonstrating its strong willingness to promote the re-integration of the Eurasian region. On the other hand, the three Baltic countries' departure from Russia and their entry into the European Union, Georgia and Ukraine's pro-Slovakism, Armenia's undecided moves, and the pursuit of pluralistic and balanced diplomacy among the major powers in Central Asia have all challenged Russia's influence and control. Although Russia has been trying to "integrate" the Eurasian region and has made achievements at a certain stage, with the lack of economic growth, US-EU sanctions, the impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic and other factors continuing to affect, Russia is often ineffective in providing support to regional countries, and its influence and leadership on Eurasian integration platforms such as the CIS and the Eurasian Economic Union have not met its expectations. Whether it is during the Soviet period or today, the vast Eurasian region is a strategic buffer zone for Russia to defend its national security, and it can also be said that Russia must fight and protect. Therefore, Putin recently drew a strong red line for the United States and its Western allies, declaring its position on Issues such as Ukraine and NATO's eastward expansion, which objectively shows that Russia's regional influence has shrunk to its strategic bottom line under the continuous pressure of the West.
On November 10, 2020, a military aircraft carrying personnel and equipment of Russian peacekeepers landed at a military airport in Armenia, preparing to carry out a mission to the Nagorno-Karabakh region. (IC Photo image)
The future development of the Eurasian region will continue to be faced
A range of external risk challenges
The external challenge to the stability of the situation in the Eurasian region mainly comes from certain extraterritorial countries or groups of countries. The most fundamental and long-term role of these is the transatlantic alliance and NATO bloc led by the United States. From a geopolitical point of view, whether the region "looks east" or "goes west" has global strategic implications for both Russia and the West, led by the United States. One of the most important features of the interaction between Eurasia and external forces in the 30 years since the collapse of the Soviet Union is that the Western forces represented by the NATO bloc have continued to approach Russia itself. The primary strategic intention of the U.S.-led transatlantic alliance and NATO bloc in the region is to divide, dwarf, and weaken Russia and its inertial influence in the "post-Soviet space" and to achieve "de-Russianization" and "pro-Westernization" of the region. Former U.S. president's national security adviser, Brzezinski, said the Anglo-Saxons would not allow the formation of a dominant power or group of continental states in the heart of Eurasia. This genetically inherited geo-historical-political obsession dooms the relationship between the Anglo-Saxon bloc and Eurasia to remain on a peaceful trajectory.
Although Russia's comprehensive national strength has not yet been restored to the Soviet period, many Eurasian countries still rely on Russia to varying degrees in terms of energy, economy, market, trade, labor export, etc., so although Russia's traditional status and advantages in the Eurasian region are being eroded on a large scale, its influence still exists. The Transatlantic Alliance headed by the United States has taken advantage of the contradictions between some Eurasian countries in the territorial, ethnic, religious and other fields and the political, economic and social problems existing within relevant countries, and has continuously created or strengthened regional instability factors through NATO's "Partnership for Peace Program," non-governmental organization activities, and intelligence infiltration, seizing every opportunity to carry out the so-called "democratic" transformation of regional countries and squeezing Russia's sphere of influence. Since the end of 2004, the core external factor of the Ukrainian issue, which has been repeatedly fermented and intensified, is that the transatlantic alliance and some countries of the NATO group have tried to achieve the goal of "separating Ukraine from Russia, exposing Russia's 'soft belly' and no longer qualifying as an empire" by instigating a series of "mixed warfare" means such as instigating "color revolutions", supporting armed conflicts, implementing economic inducements and provoking ethnic and religious contradictions.
The strategic goals of the United States and its Western allies do not stop there. The United States launched the War in Afghanistan and occupied Afghanistan for 20 years, and finally withdrew from Afghanistan, which not only failed to achieve the strategic goal of transforming Afghanistan and making it a chess piece for the United States in the "Eurasian chessboard", but also led to the collapse of the Central Asian policy. However, it is necessary to soberly see that the United States escaped from the "imperial cemetery" and quickly stopped the bleeding in order to accumulate strength from the outside to encircle the Eurasian region.
In addition to the above-mentioned traditional geopolitical "dramas" such as the great power game and the land and sea battle, the external factors that play a role in the evolution of the situation in the Eurasian region also include the cooperation between the external middle powers and regional countries under the century-old changes, the implementation of cross-regional "integration" of nationalities and religions, the intention of holding together to warm up, and achieving the strategic goal of amplifying the "voice" and even playing a leading role in regional and international affairs. Not long ago, the leaders of Turkey, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Azerbaijan held a summit to announce that the "Turkic State Committee" was renamed the "Turkic State Organization", which is bound to become one of the important factors in the evolution of the regional situation.
Although the countries of The Eurasian region have been plagued by friction, conflict, and even turmoil and war over the past 30 years of independence, they have generally moved forward along the correct track from "chaos" to "governance". The aspirations of all countries to pursue their own stability and development will not change. Looking forward to the future, this region is bound to face long-term encirclement, provocation, even differentiation and suppression from countries outside the region and their allies, and the situation is not optimistic. However, if regional countries can cooperate sincerely and vigorously promote the deep integration of cooperation mechanisms covering different types, fields and scopes, such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, the Collective Security Treaty Organization, the Eurasian Economic Union, the CICA Conference, the Belt and Road Initiative and the Greater Eurasian Partnership, the Eurasian region will usher in the dawn of peace, stability, development and prosperity.
The Nord Stream-2 natural gas pipeline project under construction. (IC Photo image)
*Disclaimer: This article only represents the personal views of the author and does not represent the position of this official account
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