Focus Interview 丨The "14th Five-Year Plan" began with a steady and resilient Chinese economy

Today (January 17) morning, the 2021 China Economic Annual Report was released. In the first year of the "14th Five-Year Plan", in the face of major changes unprecedented in a century and the epidemic of the century, China's economy is also inevitably impacted. Faced with the challenge, what kind of report card did we finally hand over? In today's program, we will interview authoritative people and take you to understand the meaning behind these economic data.

In 2021, the total GDP of the mainland will exceed 100 trillion yuan, an increase of 8.1% over the previous year, completing the annual growth target of "more than 6%" set at the beginning of the year, ranking the forefront of the world's major economies. This is the second consecutive year that the total GDP of the mainland has exceeded 100 trillion yuan, and the per capita GDP has exceeded 10,000 US dollars for the third consecutive year. However, from a quarterly point of view, this year, the mainland's economic growth rate is not even, the FIRST to fourth quarters OF GDP growth rates were 18.3%, 7.9%, 4.9%, 4%. So, what is the reason for the slowdown in quarterly growth?

Liu Yuanchun, vice president and economist of Chinese Min University, said: "One of the most prominent reasons is that the impact of the epidemic has led to the problem of lack of cabinets, cores, electricity, coal and labor in the supply chain. The impact of commodities has led to a large number of middle and lower reaches of the enterprises and some small and medium-sized enterprises to bear a lot of costs, resulting in a decline in some economic vitality. Of course, we must also see some factors at a deeper level, that is, the adjustment of some policies and the implementation of strategies have produced a superposition effect and the phenomenon of 'several meetings'. ”

Despite facing heavy pressures, China's economy as a whole is still running on the track of recovery, and the practice of this year has once again proved that the long-term fundamentals of China's economy have not changed, and the characteristics of strong economic resilience, great potential and sufficient momentum have also continued to appear.

Fu Linghui, spokesman for the National Bureau of Statistics and director of the Department of Comprehensive Statistics of the National Bureau of Statistics of the National Bureau of Statistics, said: "While meeting domestic demand, we have made great contributions to international production and supply, and these changes are based on our own strong production strength. The foundation of our production, especially the conditions for industrial development, is stable; we have a strong domestic market, these super large market sizes, but also China's strength to cope with risk challenges; the third resilience is innovation and development, from the situation in 2021, the development of our high-tech industries, both production and investment, are significantly faster than the overall, which are important aspects of driving China's economy to stabilize and go far. ”

More importantly, in the face of the impact, we did not engage in "flood irrigation" type of strong stimulation, but still firmly follow the road of high-quality development.

Liu Yuanchun said: "There is definitely room for the speed of China's economic growth, and at the same time, China's macroeconomic policy space is also very large, and it is absolutely no problem to significantly increase the economic growth rate." If we take the initiative of 'flood irrigation' in Europe and the United States, some macro policies such as super relaxation will definitely bring a large number of sequelae, thus affecting our high-quality development. ”

In addition to economic growth, the people are most concerned about the people's livelihood security. Let's start with incomes and prices. In 2021, the per capita disposable income of residents nationwide will be 35,128 yuan, deducting price factors and increasing by 8.1% year-on-year, which is basically synchronized with economic growth. National consumer prices rose 0.9 percent from the previous year, below the expected target of about 3 percent. There is also a data related to the livelihood of thousands of households - employment. What is the employment situation this year?

In 2021, 12.69 million new jobs will be created in cities and towns across the country, reaching the expected target of more than 11 million people, and the unemployment rate in the national urban survey will average 5.1%. Stable employment benefits from the sustained and stable recovery of China's economy, and more from a series of heart-warming policies of "employment first". This year, Beijing Municipality once again issued unemployment insurance premiums to employers who did not lay off employees or reduce layoffs, and who met the conditions.

Stabilize enterprises, create more employment opportunities, drive employment with entrepreneurship, and carry out skills training... Under the joint action of a series of policies, the employment situation on the mainland was generally stable this year. However, there are also some structural contradictions behind stability that cannot be ignored.

Fu Linghui said: "There is a shortage of technicians and there are structural problems, which are mainly due to the imbalance between supply and demand in the industrial structure. In the next stage, we will promote industrial upgrading and development, increase the training of employment skills for young people, make supply and demand more connected, and help promote the gradual improvement of youth employment. ”

In 2021, the number of graduates of mainland universities will reach 9.09 million, and it is expected to reach 10.76 million in 2022. How can we better help them solve their employment problems? Many localities have thought of many ways.

Fuzhou City has launched a "live broadcast with post", allowing recruitment enterprises to introduce the job situation in the live broadcast room and answer questions online. College graduates can also conduct online interviews. Sichuan Province held a special job fair for disabled college students. Qilu Institute of Technology in Shandong Province has set up a skill practice base, inviting enterprise experts to guide students on the spot according to the latest requirements of the industry, shortening the distance between talent training and the employment market, and improving the employment rate.

Fu Linghui said: "The employment situation of young people as a whole is improving, and since July 2021, the unemployment rate of young people has generally declined, indicating that a series of employment policies that support the employment of key groups, especially young people and migrant workers, are playing an effect." ”

There is another type of people in the employment data that has attracted much attention, that is, flexible employment personnel. At present, the scale of flexible employment in the mainland has reached 200 million people. While becoming a "reservoir" for absorbing employment, flexible employment has also exposed some shortcomings in the protection of workers' rights and interests. Zhang Guangpei, an online ride-hailing driver, has been engaged in this industry for 5 years, because there is no labor contract signed with the platform, and various social security, including work injury insurance, are still blank.

In January 2021, Guangdong Province issued a new measure, flexible employment personnel can participate in work injury insurance individually. At the national level, a number of top-level designs and institutional arrangements are also being introduced for the labor remuneration, social insurance, labor safety and other rights and interests of flexibly employed personnel.

Like employment, consumption is also related to the good life of thousands of households. The Central Economic Work Conference held in December last year pointed out that the current economic development of the mainland is facing three pressures - demand contraction, supply shock, and weak expectations. Among them, an important manifestation of the "demand contraction" is the slowdown in the growth rate of consumption and investment. So, what's the reason behind this? Do we still have enough potential to tap?

Expanding domestic demand is an important strategy of our country. How to better expand domestic demand? Consumption and investment are two important engines. In 2021, the total retail sales of consumer goods and fixed asset investment will grow by 12.5% and 4.9% respectively year-on-year, and the contribution rate of domestic demand to economic growth will reach 79.1%. However, the contribution of total capital formation to economic growth in the fourth quarter was negative.

Although the growth of consumption is subject to some constraints, in 2021, the mainland consumer market still shows great vitality and potential. This year, the annual business volume of mainland express delivery exceeded the level of 100 billion for the first time, ranking first in the world for 8 consecutive years; the National Day movie "Changjin Lake" exceeded 5 billion yuan at the box office, leading the global annual box office; on the day of the opening of Universal Beijing Resort, tickets sold out quickly... The general trend of consumption upgrading has not changed, and new types of consumption such as live streaming and online education have developed rapidly. The super-large market size of more than 1.4 billion people and more than 400 million middle-income groups contains unlimited potential. So, the next step, how to better stimulate this potential?

Liu Yuanchun said: "Expanding consumption must be laid out from the perspective of consumption strategy, that is to say, there must be a combination of medium and long term. In the short term, to increase some short-term consumption subsidies, in the medium term, we must make comprehensive progress in the reform of income distribution, and to change the situation that the proportion of residents' income in GDP was too low in the past, we must also make a breakthrough in the release of high-end consumption and the corresponding supply-side reform. ”

Judging from the stage of mainland development, there is potential, space and motivation for expanding effective investment. At present, 102 key projects identified in the "14th Five-Year Plan" have been launched one after another, and the "two new and one heavy" projects have been built in an orderly manner. In 2022, the continuous recovery of consumption and investment will be the key to china's stable economic growth.

In 2021, exports will become a major bright spot in the mainland economy. This year, the import and export scale of the mainland's trade in goods exceeded US$6 trillion for the first time, setting a record high, demonstrating the strong resilience and comprehensive competitiveness of China's economy. Of course, among many enterprises, there is one type of enterprise whose life may be more difficult in the past two years, that is, small and medium-sized enterprises. In order to help them tide over the difficulties, the state has introduced a series of bailout policies to help enterprises. So, in 2021, what is the survival situation of small and medium-sized micro enterprises?

Most of the 150 million market entities on the mainland are small and medium-sized enterprises, which carry the basic plate of employment of more than 700 million people. Preserving these market players is crucial to stabilizing employment and promoting economic growth on the mainland. In 2021, due to multiple factors such as the spread of the epidemic in many places, the rapid rise in commodity prices, and the once tight supply of electricity and coal, the development of small and medium-sized enterprises is facing greater difficulties.

Fu Linghui said: "From the perspective of large data, the production and operation of small and medium-sized enterprises have remained stable overall, but it is true that the survival pressure of small and micro enterprises has indeed increased, mainly in the rise in costs. ”

How can we help ms and small and medium-sized enterprises survive and live well? The mainland has struck a policy combination punch. At the end of 2021, when the company's expenditure was the greatest, a manufacturing company in Huzhou City was notified that it could postpone the payment of taxes and fees.

In addition to deferring the payment of taxes and fees, there are more real money and silver tax reductions and fee reductions, and in 2021, the new tax reduction and fee reduction is expected to exceed 1 trillion yuan. At the same time, the mainland has continuously reduced the financing costs of small and medium-sized enterprises, improved the business environment, and focused on expanding market demand. It is worth noting that the policy dividend's support for manufacturing and scientific and technological innovation has been continuously strengthened, especially the "specialized and specialized" small and medium-sized enterprises with innovation as the soul. An enterprise in Qingdao completed the digital transformation of the entire production system with the support of all parties.

On November 15, 2021, the Beijing Stock Exchange, which is committed to serving the development of innovative small and medium-sized enterprises, opened its market, adding financing channels for a number of "specialized, specialized and new" enterprises. However, for most small and medium-sized enterprises, at present, the operation still faces many difficulties, and follow-up policies need to target pain points and make precise efforts.

To observe the economic situation, we must not only look at the immediate situation, but also look at the long term and the overall situation, and see whether China's economy is on a correct track and whether it has sufficient potential and resilience. After understanding the general trend, we have confidence and confidence. In 2021, despite the pressure, China's economy still showed a lot of "bright colors". For example, the rapid development of new consumption, investment in high-tech industries has also grown rapidly, and "Focus Interview" will continue to interpret it for you.

Producer 丨 Li composed poems

Editor-in-chief 丨 Liu Ning

Edited by 丨 Tu Zhijuan

Camera 丨 Ruan Hongyu

Planning 丨 Yu Renshan

Responsible editor 丨 Liu Xiaoping Ma Rutao

Clip 丨 Xing Yongyue Miao Jialiang

Source: CCTV News Client