The price rise under the real estate bull market may not be the real contest of value strength, the market in this environment is mixed with too much irrationality, and the market under the cold winter, who fell fiercely, who resisted the impact, who can also rise against the trend, through these different performances of the same real estate, dissecting the logic behind it also brings some references for us to buy a house in the future.
In the 2021 real estate disaster, three red lines stuck the developer's capital channels, two red lines stuck the amount of housing loans, and the national property market fell.
2021 is also a big change, the tide recedes, we find that many of the past real estate truth general value-added logic is abolished, value is king, the future of these two real estate is the dark horse.
It all starts with a complete nudity swim in real estate, what has happened in the past year, and what will be greeted in the future?
Price reduction, as a real estate benchmark in Shenzhen is no exception, but there are also prices that do not reduce prices and increase prices. In the past, everyone thought that the strongest school district house fell into a mess, and the net red disk that earned 5 million yuan in the shake was also cold and miserable, and the shops were directly diving, which made many people doubt life.
The case of price reduction has been said a lot, here is not to list one by one, but we have to summarize and analyze a variety of cases and the logic behind the pulse of the future trend, bulk transactions can not rely on feelings, any time feel that there is always a deviation, feelings are so, as a rational home purchase and investment is even more so.
Under the cold winter, but some real estate has survived, and there is no room. China Resources Yue House for example, there are a number of local tycoons waiting for the market price of 364 this type of apartment to sell, if this kind of listing 1.2 Y for sale, there are many buyers in the market holding coins to buy, which shows how fierce the purchasing power of the luxury housing market is.
In stark contrast, the market just needs to wait and see, and the purchasing power of the improved market has not been released. The group of buyers who just need to be improved is a group of people who need to be driven by the market atmosphere.
The group of the luxury housing market is not only reflected in the purchasing strength, but also has a higher level of cognition of the real estate market, after all, this group is a group of people who have experienced and witnessed several real estate ups and downs in the past two decades.
My deepest impression is that in the second half of 2014, more than 10 million transactions were the first to start, and at that time, the charge to inventory had not yet sounded, until March 2015, there was a round of big market attack, the local tycoons have been half a year in advance to read the bottom, just need and improve the buyers to hurry up.
At that time, the conversion of tens of millions of levels is now conservatively speaking thirty million, and the transaction price of a batch of second-hand houses that were personally operated at that time is now three times higher. I remember that at that time, an owner of Taikoo City bought a new house Double Seal Sea Gate Duplex after selling a house, the original price was about 20 million, and time proved that this investment was determined to have lost the trend, and friends who understood the market knew that this kind of property was not more than 40 million so far.
According to my interview, the original owner of Taicheng Was attracted by the high-end of Shuangxi, but the market told us that the blind pursuit of high-end investment in real estate is itself a misunderstanding, any product is a comprehensive consideration rather than a single factor to win or lose, although the Sea Gate is good, but the cost performance is not high at that time, the bamboo shoot plate must be a case, the case must be hidden in the vast second-hand market.
In terms of apartments, taking the top apartment Shenzhen Bay No. 1 as an example, this real estate has also experienced several years of slow rise and sideways, but in the past two years, the value has gradually emerged, achieving a round of replenishment, and then a round of leading the rise.
As I have often mentioned in previous articles, there are three reasons why the price of any property has not moved in a cycle, real estate problems, market problems, and unfulfilled value.
If we blindly pursue the products that lead the rise, then we forget the original intention, look at the future rather than the past, buy a house and live without considering the rise and fall of the lie, do not say, unless you are on the rich list.
Shenzhen Bay No. 1 takes the 512 unit as an example, which was priced at 1.3 Y a year ago, and now the transaction price has reached 1.7 Y, and the value-added is as high as 4,000 W in a year.
I remember that in 2020, There was a whole-storey unit in No. 1 that only sold 1.45 Y, and now this kind of house 2 Y is probably difficult to buy, and the case is unattainable at any time, and it should be cherished.
Or Shenzhen Bay No. 1, the north district Xu shoufu this building, in 2020 there are many sets of listings, the lowest middle floor of 7500 W, high-rise units are only 8000 W, there are currently local tycoons 1 Y to buy, but the listing is rare, the asking price is 1.2 Y.
If the time is pushed forward a year, who will think that playing a new internet red disk will not make money, who will suspect that the top school district will lose money, and unanimously believe that the apartment tax is high and has no future, like an expert to tell others that they cannot buy an apartment.
Don't you know that many of the taxes and fees of the residence have exceeded the apartment, the residence and the quality apartment are in each other, and the balance in all aspects is tilting.
But this year completely subverted, buy the internet red disk stand guard, buy the school district house loss. But the price of buying high-quality apartments has soared, and the future market of high-quality apartments and scarce luxury houses will be flying together, and dark horses are rising under the collective neglect of everyone.
The price of luxury houses and ordinary houses has begun to diverge, and the future will continue to widen the price difference. In my article on the property market in the middle of last year, I talked about ten trends in the future, one of which is that luxury houses and ordinary houses will further widen the price difference. What this logic is, explained in the previous article Ten Trends, will not be described.
There is also a fact that the value of quality apartments will be highlighted, and you may not understand that quality apartments on the market are scarcer than residential bamboo shoots. What is this logic, explained in the five articles of the apartment column, will not be described.
Most people don't know, think that the apartment is flooded, no matter what questions you have, please wait and see. It is right to question if most people understand that the trend is no longer a trend but a high level of picking up and standing guard.
The so-called high-quality apartment, perhaps everyone defines the standard differently, if you buy a seemingly high-quality inferior apartment to lose money is normal, now many inferior apartments are packaged in very high quality, but the gold and jade are just defeated.
For the opportunities in the real estate market, my view is still that of individual bamboo shoots, high-quality apartments, and internet celebrity new disk ace units.
Why China Resources YueFu and No. 1 dare to increase prices against the sky, on the one hand, it seems to be the gap between rich and poor, the purchasing power of rich people is stronger, and the important aspect is that the demand of buyers has been upgraded, and there is no follow-up homogeneous product impact on the real estate.
If you are a first-time buyer, you will unswervingly play new, this is the first welfare, if it is investment, playing new is not necessarily the best choice, after all, the new and future market supply you are playing is in serious conflict, your second-hand house has no advantage, and the receiver you are waiting for also wants to play new.
For the future market trend prediction, I have written three in the previous article, friends in need are welcome to read.
Pay attention to the Shenzhen Real Estate Research Association, take you to grasp the future trend, accurate implementation of practical operations. As a real estate integrated service provider, the value of consultants does not lie in the transmission of information, but in the correct plan and landing, to solve the problem of capital demand, and to solve the problem of high-quality real estate.