Yang Delong | Cube everyone talks columnist
Performance is king is the most important investment idea at present
The past year can be said to be a relatively weak year of money-making effect, in addition to the new energy sector thriving, most sectors have been adjusted by different magnitudes.
At the beginning of this year, there was another unfavorable start, and the market pulled back again in the first week, and many people had doubts about the market throughout this year. Although the market in the first week was relatively poor, we can also see that some sectors that rose much more last year have pulled back, and the investment direction and logic of the market have not fundamentally changed. New energy, military, chips and other plates that rose last year, the correction last week was relatively large, and the low-value plate showed a recovery rise, such as finance, real estate, home appliances and other sectors, and the consumer sector also basically stabilized, and there was no sharp decline.
It can be seen that performance is king is the most important investment idea at present, and last year everyone looked at growth and elasticity. This year, everyone began to look at the performance and valuation, which also made the market this year and last year have a relatively large difference.
First of all, let's look at the performance of the global capital market, the current market is relatively large uncertainty or the epidemic. Many people do not understand why the epidemic in Europe and the United States is serious, but their stock markets are still at new highs. On the one hand, there is the reason for the currency. A large amount of water will inevitably spawn natural bubbles, especially in the case of a sluggish real economy, a large amount of money will flow into the stock market, constantly pushing up the performance of the stock market. The second reason is that although the epidemic in Europe and the United States is more serious, it has not had much impact on the real economy. These countries are basically laissez-faire in terms of prevention and control, and various consumption activities have not been affected. Most of the people who died of illness were still elderly, and it did not have much impact on the labor market.
This year, INFLATION in the United States began to become a major problem, so the Fed began to gradually shift from the previous release of water to water collection, which made many people worry again about whether the US stock market would collapse this year and whether it would fall into recession.
I think the Fed's monetary policy shift is certain now. However, we should note that while us monetary policy is tightening, fiscal policy continues to exert force. After US President Joe Biden took office, he launched a series of infrastructure investment plans, which may boost the strength of the US economic recovery to some extent.
Therefore, the risk of the US stock market peaking this year has increased, but it does not mean that it will collapse. You don't have to worry, in case the US stock market crashes on the impact of the A-share market, I think there is no risk of A-shares falling into a financial crisis at present.
The pandemic has had a big impact on the global economy. In March 2020, the US stock market plummeted, there were 4 circuit breakers a month, when many people had no confidence in the future, I put forward a syllogism, that is, the impact of the epidemic on the global economy and the stock market is mainly divided into three stages, and now it has been basically verified.
The first phase is liquidity depletion, when in March 2020 all global assets were panickedly sold off by investors, including stocks, bonds, commodities and even gold, when only the us dollar rose. The second stage is the Fed release phase, when assets will bubble again, and it is still at the end of the second phase. The third stage is to wait until the trend inflection point of the overseas epidemic, there is no inflection point at present, after the third stage comes, the global economy will really get out of the impact of the epidemic, and the A-share market will continue the trend of slow bulls and long bulls.
Embrace core assets and be optimistic about the three hot industries
Let's look at the economic and policy changes at home. Even without the impact of the epidemic, China's GDP has bid farewell to the previous state of high-speed growth and entered a state of medium-speed and high-quality growth. All walks of life are facing competition from the original pursuit of incremental, and gradually shift to stock competition, which will produce two effects, one is the head effect. This requires us to seize the opportunity of high-quality leading stocks in investment.
Second, in the process of economic transformation, the model that previously relied on export-driven and investment-driven has gradually given way to a consumption-driven and technology-driven model. This means that the focus of our investment has gradually shifted from the previous investment in investment products, real estate industry chain, and investment and export, to the two major directions of consumption and technology, or consumption plus technology, such as new energy is the combination of consumption plus technology.
Steady growth this year has become an important policy goal of the central government, monetary policy will be moderately loose, adopt a wide currency, wide credit model, which will allow the economy to obtain a relatively low interest rate, while the liquidity is relatively abundant, which is conducive to the recovery of the performance of the low-value sector.
There is an interlocking effect between the global capital market and the A-share market. In the past 10 years, the US stock market has come out of the big bull market; A shares have fluctuated greatly, and the index has not performed well, but the structural market is relatively obvious.
Why do U.S. stocks rarely rise and fall sharply? Because U.S. institutional investors account for the vast majority, U.S. pensions are the tower of the U.S. stock pyramid, according to statistics, more than $26 trillion, which makes U.S. stocks have some support when they retrace.
The A-share market investors have long been dominated by retail investors, and in the past two years, with the issuance of a large number of public funds and the inflow of foreign capital, the proportion of retail investors has gradually declined, giving way to institutional investors, so the possibility of the future slow bull and long bull in the A-share market has existed.
With the large inflow of foreign capital, the linkage between A-shares and US stocks will be enhanced, and the A-share market will become more and more mature, which will inevitably bring new investment opportunities. Therefore, I am not pessimistic about the medium- and long-term trend of A-shares, especially the medium- and long-term trend of high-quality assets. However, some non-core assets, some theme stocks, junk stocks, and concept stocks that were speculated by funds last year may face a relatively large decline.
Seizing the opportunity of economic transformation, I am mainly optimistic about the core assets of A-shares, which I call high-quality leading stocks. The core assets owned by Chinese people are actually two categories, one is real estate, and high-quality real estate has become the focus of many residents. With the regulation of real estate, the investability of real estate has declined, but the real estate in the core area still has the function of preserving and increasing value, and it is still a core asset.
If you want to seize the opportunities in the next 10 years, you must seize another type of core asset, that is, high-quality stocks or funds. Many high-quality leading stocks have fallen out of opportunities in 2021, especially in August last year, when many consumer stocks plummeted, when I suggested that everyone go to the layout at a low price. I believe it is only a matter of time before these high-quality leading stocks reach new highs in the future.
The three major directions benefiting from economic transformation are large consumption, new energy and the Internet of science and technology.
First of all, consumption can be said to be a variety worthy of pension. The reason why Buffett can become a stock god is related to his long-term firm allocation of consumer stocks.
China's comparative advantage is to have the world's largest consumer market. China's per capita GDP has exceeded 10,000 US dollars, which will bring opportunities for consumption upgrading and total consumption expansion. Of course, the future consumption must be differentiated, consumer enterprises with brand value, to seize the opportunity to obtain good returns, rather than some low-end consumer goods of the brand, there may be little opportunity.
Consumer stocks, including liquor, medicine, especially traditional Chinese medicine and innovative drugs, which are collected and immunized varieties, as well as food and beverages, are really worthy of long-term investment. Liquor and Chinese medicine have taken the lead, and there are more consumer goods that are actually at the bottom. This year, I think there are great investment opportunities and the possibility of recovery is very high, so I am still firmly optimistic about branded consumer goods.
The second is new energy. China put forward the dual carbon target, that is, to achieve carbon peak in 2030 and carbon neutrality in 2060, in order to achieve these two goals, vigorously develop clean energy is the only way. Buffett says the key to investing is to find thick wet snow and long slopes that roll like snowballs to get bigger and bigger. The new energy just meets this condition, with both thick snow and long slopes. Thick snow is a huge investment opportunity in the new energy industry, huge growth space, and the long slope is up to 40 years of growth.
Although new energy in 2021 has risen a lot, but I think in the new year, new energy is still an important investment line, but this year's new energy investment first fluctuation will increase, we must pay attention to control the drawdown; the second new energy will also be differentiated, the industry's leading enterprises will gradually win in the competition, occupy more shares, and some of the concept stocks that are not leading will decline in operation, or even be eliminated. Therefore, this year's investment in new energy, to configure the industry leader, I think the head effect of all walks of life will be particularly obvious in the future.
Finally, there is the Internet of Technology. Hong Kong stocks fell a lot last year, and this year I think there is an opportunity for a recovery. Munger has repeatedly bottomed out the Internet giant, and the famous investor Duan Yongping has also copied another Internet giant many times. In fact, the long-term competitiveness of these Internet companies lies in their business models and their traffic. Although antitrust may cause their earnings to decline, it has not changed their advantages, so it can still be concerned.
I think that this year, both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, as the valuation depressions of the world's major capital markets, will have opportunities for recovery. The opportunities for A shares mainly lie in the two directions of consumption and new energy, and the opportunities of Hong Kong stocks are mainly reflected in the technology Internet enterprises. If you choose these three directions, you must configure the high-quality leader of the industry. Even if the valuation of high-quality leading stocks is more expensive than that of non-leading stocks, it is necessary to match high-quality dragons.
Which are the high-quality faucets? It is those companies with strong profitability, good growth, high market share, and can withstand industry fluctuations. We can select from the market value of listed companies, and we can also select from financial indicators such as operating income and net profit of listed companies.
In the future, the direction of residents' savings transfer is to gradually shift from the property market to the stock market. The number of stock accounts has now exceeded 190 million, and this year may soon exceed 200 million. More than 1 million new accounts are opened every month, and these data indicate that funds are running in. Although 2021 is not a big bull market, there were once 49 trading days with a daily trading volume of more than 1 trillion yuan, which also shows that the attractiveness of the stock market is improved compared with before.
From the perspective of investment direction, I think That White Dragon Horse is still the focus of investment. This year I think The White Dragon Horse stock will return to the king, and 2022 will be a big year for value investment.
The top ten predictions I put forward in 2022, including a large number of resident savings, continue to enter the market by buying funds, bringing a steady stream of incremental funds to A shares, so A shares are still slow bulls and long bulls. It's just that A shares are structural markets, and general increases are unlikely to occur. Although the Shanghai Composite Index will continue to expand upwards, the amplitude is not large.
In order to seize this year's opportunity, we must seize the opportunity of the recovery of high-quality leading stocks, allocate white dragon horse stocks in the three directions of consumption, new energy and technology Internet, and bearish cyclical stocks and theme stocks.
So for the 2022 market I am not pessimistic, to sum up, this year we should grasp the performance as the king of investment ideas, more allocation of good industries, good companies or good funds. This year's good funds will usher in the opportunity for a recovery of growth, and good stocks will regain the attention of funds.
Editor-in-charge: Tao Jiyan | Review: Li Zhen | Director: Wan Junwei