Track Shares VS Defense Stocks, make your right choice

Fall to find reasons, today is a stampede of institutional heavy positions.

There are rumors in the disk that there may be changes to the high-level policy on carbon neutrality.

But after the noon market, it was quickly clarified by the chiefs and reminded that there is still no conclusion.

Taking one step at a time, I believe that the carbon neutral national policy is one of the directions of international competition in the new era, and the country cannot give up or slow down, as for the intensity of local implementation, it needs to be run-in and takes time.

To say that the recent track stock has such a big drawdown.

The institution does a balanced configuration and does high and low switching, which should be a normal shock.

It's just that this shock is too violent, so that the market has to suspect that there is any bearishness.

Even if in fact there is no policy side of the bearish, are caused by domestic investment position adjustment behavior, but the fall is more, all kinds of conspiracy theories will come, year after year, experienced investors should have their own judgment.

I believe that what many people want to ask most at this time is how long the track stock will be adjusted.

This is the comprehensive result of the market game, and the prejudgment is meaningless.

Even if the judgment is correct, the position does not dare to go up, and it is meaningless to guess correctly.

I can only say that this emotional adjustment, rather than the policy bearishness caused, I dare to add!

But for friends who do not have confidence in the bottom, do not do the left side of the low suction against human nature.

The more you fall, the more you buy, it is not suitable for ordinary people, but for investors with a good mentality and a knowledge of the industry.

Every year there will be similar phased adjustments, there will always be some people cut at a low level, and some people will buy the right one but earn a little and run.

I believe that reading my articles from 19 years to the present, I have experienced several rounds of the same scene.

The same reincarnation, looking back at everyone who bought tickets that were very expensive at that time, for example, when the Ningde era rose to 160, it was also a questioning voice, the valuation was so expensive, it rose so much, how to continue?

Looking back now, is 160 likely to go back?

The company's performance is growing, which will naturally match the stock price and also grow.

For example, Moutai's stock price is also 10 times, but the performance has indeed increased by 10 times.

The stock price should match the performance growth rate, rather than the simple valuation level, which is the cognition of all bottom-reading behavior.

So if you don't want to buy track stocks at the moment, can you go to defense stocks?

From a macro point of view, the previous article has been analyzed, most of the head institutions have made a wide credit prediction, and the future interest rate cut expectation has begun to be done in advance.

Finance, real estate, and the industrial chain around real estate (such as home appliances, decoration, building materials, kitchenware) are all sectors that benefit from loose expectations, and it is not surprising that there is a stage market.

However, relying on policy changes, the medium and long-term line of the game is not a good choice for retail investors.

It lacks both information advantages and cost advantages.

Investors who do not have early intervention, do not participate in the rotation of financial real estate at this stage.

Easing expectations have been predicted as early as November-December, and institutions have already balanced the allocation of defense stocks in advance.

Not to mention that the expectation of easing has not been confirmed, only from the perspective of cost advantages, retail investors have no advantage.

As a defensive sector with balanced allocation of institutions, they have long gone in.

The institutional model is to chase the fall and kill the rise, your model is to chase the rise and kill the fall, then who makes money and who loses money?

Just think about it.

conclusion:

Lack of industry awareness, do not bottom track stocks, the left side of the anti-human nature, need to fall more and more excited.

Lack of cost advantage, do not chase high defense stocks, the right side of the expectation, defense stocks only do rotation without expectations.

Retail investors who have already had empty positions are recommended to take a break to watch the drama.

Friends who have been set in the track stock, it is recommended to continue to wait, short-term retracement is not terrible, afraid of the more the warehouse more panic, and finally despair, full position at the bottom of the cutting meat.

Friends who have been operating fiercely in various theme stocks also wish everyone good luck.

This year's spring is restless, and the shock is indeed a bit beyond expectations, but what remains unchanged is that in A-share investment, it is always necessary to toss in the direction of national development, as long as the direction is correct, then there is no need to worry about short-term shocks.