On January 5, local time, according to a number of French media reports, on December 9 last year, the Mediterranean Institute of Infectious Diseases in Marseille, France, said that a new variant of the new coronavirus was found, the strain number is B.1.640.2, also known as the "IHU" strain. The strain contained 46 mutation points and 37 deletions.
The strain was first identified in a patient returning to France from the Congo. So far, the Mediterranean Institute of Infectious Diseases Medical and Teaching Research in Marseille has found a total of 12 cases of infection with this strain. Due to the small size of the sample, it is currently difficult to assess its infectivity and risk. The World Health Organization has listed the strain as a NEW CORONAVIRUS variant under observation.
"Omicron" has not yet subsided
The "Omikejung" variant has thrown the world into turmoil at the beginning of 2022. On Monday, the United States reported for the first time 1 million new coronavirus infections in a single day, and the positive rate of covid-19 testing in New York was as high as 33%. On Tuesday, France across the Atlantic also set a record high of 270,000 new confirmed cases in a single day.
Now that the COVID-19 pandemic is in its third year, can the global pandemic come to an end in 2022?
Recently, WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus expressed optimism about ending the pandemic emergency phase in 2022; Professor Andrew Pollard, principal researcher of the University of Oxford's COVID-19 vaccines and director of the Vaccine Laboratory, also said in an interview a few days ago: "The worst days are over, we just need to spend the whole winter." French Health Minister Olivier Véran predicted: "This could be the last wave of the outbreak in France." ”
Zhang Wenhong, director of the Department of Infectious Diseases at Huashan Hospital affiliated to Fudan University, explained to the first financial reporter that after the normalization of the global epidemic, it will slowly enter the stage of "Endemic". The so-called "Endemic" refers to the normalization of an epidemic in a certain region.
The pandemic will become the norm
"Whether the epidemic can be ended mainly depends on three factors. The first is the mutation of the virus itself, whether the spread will weaken. The second is the development of vaccines and the degree of market-oriented production of special drugs. The third is the degree of solidarity and cooperation in the global fight against the epidemic. "Some people in the industry who are more familiar with the work of disease control believe that an important reason for the recurrence of the current global epidemic is that the global fight against the epidemic is not synchronized, and if all countries can further unite and fight the epidemic together, they will control and eliminate the epidemic faster."
What has led scientists to optimism is not that the new crown virus will disappear in 2022, but that the response to the epidemic will become more normalized. The global large-scale outbreak of cases triggered by "Omi Kerong" is an important turning point in the new crown epidemic in the eyes of many scientists.
Optimism comes from many sources. The first is the growing evidence that "Omikeron" may be less virulent than other COVID-19 variants, and if it dominates the competition and becomes an epidemic strain, it means that the new crown virus may become a less deadly "weak virus".
The latest statement comes from WHO. Abdi Mahamud, the group's head of COVID-19, told reporters on Tuesday: "There is growing evidence that the Olmi kerong variant is affecting the upper respiratory tract, causing milder symptoms than previous variants, and while in some places the number of cases has soared, the resulting low mortality rate is significantly 'decoupled' from the number of cases." ”
Sir John Bell, a royal professor of medicine at the University of Oxford and a government adviser on life sciences, recently wrote: "Infected with the Olmikron strain is different from the new crown disease we saw a year ago, although the number of hospitalizations has increased, but their hospital stays are relatively short, the average length of hospital stay is shortened to three days, and the number of patients who need oxygen is also reduced." ”
Sir Bell believes that Britain's high COVID-19 mortality rate "is a thing of the past". Professor Pollard of the University of Oxford also said in an interview a few days ago: "Although the Aumechjong mutation is raging in the UK, the worst period of the epidemic has passed, and we only need to get through this winter." ”
Pollard argues that while the "Omicron" threat persists and that it is not realistic to try to block all infections, at some point society must be open. He also said that winter is not the best time to open up, because it can lead to a large number of infections, and the UK should use this time to speed up vaccination.
After comprehensive analysis, the above-mentioned industry insiders said that there is great hope for the end of the epidemic in 2022, however, whether such a good wish can be realized, some staff engaged in international health research are not so optimistic. He believes that it may be waiting until the end of April or early May 2022, depending on the development of the global epidemic situation, it will be clearer whether the epidemic can be ended before the end of the year.
The vaccine did not fail
About 9 billion doses of COVID-19 vaccine have been administered globally. Some scientists believe that the global expansion of COVID-19 vaccination is also an important factor in the reduction of severe disease caused by the virus. Although "Omilon" has a strong immune escape ability, vaccines can still provide protection against serious diseases caused by viruses.
Professor Arnaud Fontanet, an epidemiologist at the Institut Pasteur in France and a member of the Scientific Committee, recently said: "The Factron variant escapes part of the immune protection does not mean that it is resisting the vaccine, and after receiving the booster, the vaccine can still achieve 80% to 90% protection against serious diseases." ”
Zhang Wenhong also previously said that his team's main research confirmed that China's third vaccination can still retain the neutralizing effect on the "Omi Kerong" and "Delta" variants, and has the potential to reduce the incidence of severe cases.
MiKael Dlosten, chief scientist at Pfizer, previously said: "The specific point in time when Endemic is realized still depends on the development of the disease, the effective deployment of vaccines and related therapies, and the fair distribution of vaccines around the world." The emergence of new variants can also affect the duration of the COVID-19 pandemic. ”
Pfizer and partner BioNTech expect to produce 4 billion doses of COVID-19 vaccine this year, generating about $31 billion in revenue. The data show that the effectiveness of the two doses of the vaccine against "Omiqueron" is less than 20%, and after the booster, the effectiveness against "Omiljun" reaches between 55% and 80%.
Israel, the world's leading vaccination rate, has approved a fourth dose of booster vaccine for people over 60 years of age and at high risk, and expects to achieve herd immunity in the latest wave of outbreaks. Israel is also the first country in the world to start a fourth dose vaccination program. According to the Israeli Ministry of Health, 60% of Israelis have been vaccinated with two or more doses. However, vaccination rates in some African countries are still less than 10 per cent.
The supply of oral COVID-19 drugs has accelerated
At the same time as vaccination, the successful development of oral drugs for new crown drugs has also brought good news to patient treatment. This means that patients do not need to go to the hospital for medication, thus avoiding possible nosocomial infections and reducing the burden on the healthcare system.
The U.S. FDA has approved urgent authorization requests for Pfizer and Merck's COVID-19 oral drugs. Pfizer will provide the U.S. government with a total of 20 million courses of COVID-19 oral drugs, one for 5 days, twice daily, taking 3 capsules each time. Clinical trial data show that Pfizer's oral COVID-19 drug combined with an anti-HIV drug called ritonavir can reduce COVID-19 severity and mortality by nearly 90%.
COVID-19 oral drugs are small molecule drugs, and unlike neutralizing antibody drugs, they are less affected by viral mutations, which also brings hope for the end of the global epidemic.
At present, U.S. drug manufacturers have authorized Indian generic drug plants to produce this new crown oral drug, which will significantly reduce the cost of production, thus making the drug globally accessible.
According to a statement issued Tuesday by Indian generic drug manufacturer Dr Reddy's, the company will produce Merck's covid-19 oral drug monopiravir, which will cost only about 47 cents each, and the total price of 40 pills for a course of treatment is less than $20. In the U.S., a course of ORAL MERCK costs about $700.
"The cost of new drug development is high, compared with the negligible cost of chemical drugs. The U.S. recovers costs by making high profits through high-priced sales. Ma Dawei, an academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences and the Shanghai Institute of Organic Chemistry of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, told the first financial reporter.
Ma Dawei believes that if the pathogenicity of the "Omiljung" variant is not high, then with the accelerated popularization of several major new crown oral drugs around the world, we can cope with future new crown infections. He also said that the degree of mutation of "Omi Kerong" is already very high, and it is difficult for the virus to mutate further.
Hong Kong listed company Golee Pharmaceuticals recently announced the expansion of ritonavir oral tablet production capacity to 100 million tablets per year, and the stock prices of ritonavir drug intermediate manufacturer Senxuan Pharmaceutical's parent company Essence Pharmaceutical and Yaben Chemical have also recently soared. At present, China's manufacturers, including Simcere Pharmaceutical, Junshi Bio and Pioneering Pharmaceutical, are developing related COVID-19 oral drugs.
Brad Loncar, founder of bio-investment fund Loncar Investments, told First Financial Reporter: "As the global demand for COVID-19 oral drugs surges, it may lead to shortages in the supply chain of related drugs. China will also develop similar new crown oral drugs, and the drugs produced by Chinese manufacturers need to supply domestic market demand on the one hand, and on the other hand, they are also expected to be exported to overseas markets. ”
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