Some people cleared their positions and left, and some people entered the market with heavy money.
In the past year, the new energy vehicle sector has risen like a rainbow, becoming a well-deserved top sector in the secondary market in 2021.
According to Oriental Wealth data, the new energy vehicle index continued its growth trend of 31.17% in 2020, and as of December 31, 2021, it rose by 39.61% again in 2021. Under the capital outlet, investors in new energy vehicle stocks have made a lot of money. From 2020 to 2021, Fang Heng held a number of new energy vehicle stocks such as BYD, Great Wall Motor, Golden Dragon Automobile and BAIC New Energy, and once made a profit of more than 500,000 yuan (principal of 6 million yuan). In 2021, most investors like Fang Heng who are heavily invested in new energy vehicles have become winners.
But as we move into 2022, the enthusiasm of former fans begins to dissipate. In fact, at the end of 2021, Fang Heng has begun to change its investment strategy and invest more chips in its hands in lithium batteries, photovoltaics and other sectors. "New energy vehicle stocks are likely to continue to rise in 2022, but due to the previous large increases, the upward momentum in 2022 will be relatively slow." In fact, not only Fang Heng reduced his holdings in new energy vehicle stocks, the Future Auto Daily interviewed a number of investors found that some people only retained the bottom position of new energy vehicle stocks, switched to the meta-universe plate, and gambled that it would become the next "bitcoin"; some people turned to the metal material plate, under the rising price of lithium battery raw materials, these players believe that upstream metals may have greater opportunities for periodic rise.
As if overnight, the new energy vehicle stock suddenly became "not fragrant"?
"The stock price of the new forces will not soar again"
As an old investor with more than 5 years of experience in stock speculation, Qian Chen prefers to call himself a "bubble" person. Nowadays, Qian Chen has thrown out all the new energy vehicle stocks in his hand and turned to the meta-universe and artificial intelligence fields.
"The story told by the metacosm and artificial intelligence to the capital market this year is far more exciting than that of new energy vehicles." Qian Chen's creed is that "stock speculation is speculation expectations", which field can bring more exciting and exciting stories to the capital market, you can get more abundant returns on capital, even if these returns are bubbles. New energy vehicles have experienced the best period, starting from the middle of 2020, the stock price has taken off collectively, and the most exaggerated stock has risen more than 10 times in half a year.
However, in Qian Chen's view, even if new energy vehicles are the future development trend, obtaining such a high valuation in the initial stage can only be explained as the capital market will transform the expectations of new energy vehicles in the next few years or even more than ten years into the current bubble in advance. It is difficult for him to still be in the new energy sector in the new year. The most intuitive manifestation is that the capital market has become somewhat numb to the new trends of new energy vehicle companies.
What impressed Qian Chen was that on November 1, 2021, the delivery data released by NIO Automobile showed that THE delivery volume of NIO exceeded 10,000 vehicles for the first time in October. This is a big breakthrough for Weilai, and the capital market is bound to have a strong reaction. To Qian Chen's surprise, as of the close of trading on November 1, Weilai's stock price rose by only 3.63%. "For the capital market, it is not a good thing that consumers' acceptance of new energy vehicles has become higher." Qian Chen analyzed it from a unique perspective of "capital bubble". "The new energy automobile industry is gradually maturing, profitability is beginning to become traditional, the once fiery expectations are gradually retreating, and the stock prices of new car-making forces will no longer soar."
Compared with the radical Qian Chen, Yu Qiao's investment logic is relatively conservative. Before the end of the year, Yu Qiao only retained the basic disks of Foton Automobile and Beiqi Blue Valley, and transferred the funds to the photovoltaic and metal material tracks. In Yu Qiao's view, new energy vehicle stocks "can be held for a long time, but if they are on the bus in 2022, there is no need."
Source: Courtesy of respondents
Because, compared with 2021, the investment opportunity for new energy vehicles in 2022 is much more difficult. "At the end of 2020, the relevant agencies expect sales of new energy vehicles to be 2 million units in 2021, but the actual demand has reached 3.4 million units (CAAM forecast)." Demand is greater than supply with new energy vehicles, and the sales volume and stock price of new energy vehicles will rise in 2021.
By 2022, the industry expects that the chip shortage will be alleviated, and major car companies will expand their production capacity, so that the new energy automobile industry can fight a richer battle in 2022. "Market expectations are relatively sufficient, and the degree of influence on stock prices by external factors is reduced, so the growth of car companies' stock prices needs more support from their own performance." Yu Qiao analyzed the future auto daily.
However, the above investors do not deny that new energy vehicles are still their focus on the stock market. "In 2022, there may be differentiation within the new energy, and some high-quality stocks that can really make performance and have a leading position may usher in better performance opportunities, and some stocks that speculate in concepts may inevitably fall." Some investors analyzed that "at present, lithium battery production capacity is insufficient, the supply is in short supply, and the development of alternative technology is slow, and the industry will continue to develop rapidly in the next few years." ”
New energy vehicles are still a long-term track
Some people made pre-judgments to clear the market, and some people entered with enthusiasm and heavy money.
Source: pexels
"Although it is not the time to cut the bottom, if you don't get on the bus now, the 'ticket' in the future will be more expensive." Moxi firmly believes that new energy vehicles will be a track with long slopes and thick snow. On December 16, 2021, Moxi bought 300 shares of BYD shares (investing 84,900 yuan) at a price of 283 yuan per share, and on December 23, he again bought 1,000 shares of Changan Automobile Group at a price of 16.03 yuan per share (invested 16,000 yuan).
As the owner of BYD Tang and a loyal fan of BYD, Moxi firmly believes that BYD's stock price will reproduce the miracle of the Ningde era. "BYD started early in the field of new energy and has a first-mover advantage. In the future, with the improvement of the new energy market, BYD's advantages will be further expanded. "From all indications, the new energy vehicle market in 2022 contains unlimited potential.
On December 31, 2021, the Ministry of Finance and other four ministries and commissions jointly issued a notice on improving the financial subsidy policy for the promotion and application of new energy vehicles. The notice shows that the subsidy policy for the purchase of new energy vehicles in 2022 was terminated on December 31, 2022, and the vehicles on the license plate after that will no longer be subsidized. At the same time, the technical indicators related to the current purchase subsidy will remain unchanged in 2022, and the subsidy scale will be relaxed from the original expected upper limit of 2 million vehicles, and the subsidy will be realized throughout the whole year of 2022.
Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the Association, believes that under the stimulation of policies, consumers will have a strong desire to buy new energy vehicles in 2022. "The car buying climax is likely to occur at the end of 2022." At the same time, Cui Dongshu predicts that the sales of new energy vehicles in 2022 are expected to exceed 6 million, and the penetration rate is about 22%.
CICC also released a research report saying that it is firmly optimistic about the new energy vehicle market in 2022. CICC expects that the demand for the automotive industry will grow steadily in 2022, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles will increase rapidly, the intelligence will accelerate, and the industrial transformation will come. Under the background of great changes, car companies and even the industrial chain are facing subversion and reshaping, and technology and product innovation that can be rapidly iterated is an important starting point, and it is also the core driving force for the performance valuation of car companies, and it is recommended to continue to dig deep into the structural growth track and individual stock opportunities. "There is still a lot of growth in the (new energy vehicle) market." Mo Xi believes that the new energy vehicle market has been stabilized, and the remaining problems are mainly concentrated at the transaction level. "The monthly sales release and the quarterly earnings release stage should be the most appropriate time point (for short-term investors)." (This article does not constitute investment advice, in order to protect the privacy of the respondents, some of the characters in the article are pseudonyms)
The author | Su Peng
Edit the | Li Huanhuan