Recently, some people in Taiwan shouted: There is going to be a nuclear war in the Taiwan Strait!
Why?
The reason is that on January 3, the five major nuclear-armed countries (China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States) issued a joint statement: "We affirm that nuclear war cannot be won or fought." In view of the far-reaching consequences of the use of nuclear weapons, we also state that, as long as nuclear weapons continue to exist, they should serve defensive purposes, deter aggression and prevent war. We firmly believe in the need to prevent the further proliferation of nuclear weapons", a statement that is a bit heart-wrenching, because in the current turbulent world situation, there is a lot of implication.
First, the game has begun!
At present, the United States and Russia are facing each other on the Ukrainian border because of the Ukrainian issue, once the war starts, it may also affect NATO countries (including Britain and France) and even the whole of Europe, and the statement "nuclear weapons should serve the 'purpose of defense'", such a statement appears at this point in time, in fact, it is more like everyone first talks about the rules of the game after the start of the war: "Fight back, we can not lose nuclear weapons on our respective lands, so as not to destroy the world, this is the bottom line", although under such a premise, the war of the five major countries will not rise to nuclear war, But with the rules of the game set, the chances of the game starting (starting a war) are even greater!
Second, has the Taiwan Strait become an extralegal place for the use of nuclear weapons?
Although the possibility of the eventual actual use of nuclear weapons is extremely low, the possibility that the United States, as the only country in the world that has used nuclear weapons against Japan at present, does not stand firm on the "nuclear issue", is not zero. After all, the United States exported nuclear submarine technology to Australia in September this year, and the previous Trump administration also repeatedly on the Iranian nuclear issue, giving Iran an excuse to develop nuclear weapons. Although the United States pays lip service to anti-nuclear, as long as there is a political need, the action under the table will not stop.
The recent situation in the United States has not been as smooth as in the early years, first of all, the domestic economic recession caused by the epidemic has made Americans dissatisfied with the government. And Russia's problem with NATO is something the Biden administration is struggling with. On the Taiwan Strait issue, Chinese mainland now has the confidence and strength to strengthen its own stand, and has successively made unyielding responses to the United States. In the face of such a situation, if the United States wants to regain the right to speak in the world, it may use "nuclear deterrence" again, and this place is most likely the Taiwan Strait!
3. Why the Taiwan Strait?
First of all, in the definition of the "one-China policy" of the United States, as long as the cross-strait issue is not resolved by the two sides of the strait for a day, it will still be within its control for the United States. If nuclear weapons are thrown here, it can substantially deter the mainland, and after the fact, as long as it is cheeky, it can also be defined as not a declaration of war on the mainland. The Taiwan region is not a "country" in the definition of the United States, and in this statement, "we must not target each other and other countries", and aiming nuclear weapons at the Taiwan region is not a violation of this statement.
The psychology of the Taiwan region in the United States is obviously not a real "friend", which can be seen from the attitude of the United States in the past "arms sales to Taiwan" and the repeated "defense of Taiwan", and the situation of the United States "abandoning its teammates" is not the first time, the United States has even asked the Taiwan region to use the "scorched earth strategy" to deal with the self-destruction of semiconductor facilities when fighting with the mainland, indicating that the Taiwan region is a dispensable situation in the mind of the United States, and since it can "economically" demand that the Taiwan region "commit suicide", it will eventually regard Taiwan as the center of "nuclear deterrence" , it doesn't seem impossible.
In fact, in addition to the United States, if there is a real world war in the future and ambitious people want to use nuclear weapons to shock the world, as long as the Taiwan region does not return to the motherland for one day to achieve substantive reunification and become Chinese territory, it may become a victim of the baptism of nuclear weapons under the various political considerations of various countries.
War is something that ordinary people are not happy to happen, but as long as the United States is obsessed with the status of world hegemony and the interests of war dealers are still there, future wars will be difficult to avoid. In the end, no matter who is the winner of the war, all ordinary people will be the ultimate loser, and the Taiwan region is undoubtedly the weakest link in this world hegemony war, and may even become a victim of the nuclear deterrence of all countries.