Overseas aluminum factories have set off a tide of shutdowns, spot single-month warehouses of more than 200,000 tons, supply and demand mismatch intensified, tons of aluminum profitability or challenge the previous high!
Guotai Junan believes that overseas aluminum factories are expected to continue to ferment, domestic supply is temporarily stable, spot aluminum ingot inventory has gone to the warehouse for more than 200,000 tons in a single month, the mismatch between supply and demand is still being deduced, and aluminum prices may continue to be repaired.
1) The mismatch between supply and demand continues to be deduced, and the profitability of electrolytic aluminum is expected to challenge the high
(1) Supply side: Overseas production cuts are expected to continue to ferment. As energy prices continue to rise, this week there are overseas aluminum plants to cut production, Alcoa announced that it will start to stop production in Spain in January 2022 for two years, Hydro also plans to further reduce the capacity utilization rate of the Slovalco smelter to 60%, the recent European aluminum enterprise production reduction plan has reached a total of about 500,000 tons, and the current total operating capacity of European electrolytic aluminum is about 3.26 million tons, with an average operating rate of 65.2%, and it is likely that there may continue to be aluminum plants announcing production cuts due to high electricity prices. On the domestic side, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology set the tone to 2025 raw material bulk product production capacity only reduced, and required electrolytic aluminum carbon emissions to drop by 5%, December 19, the new revision of the "electrolytic aluminum and alumina unit product energy consumption limit" on electrolytic aluminum, alumina energy consumption standards to further improve, superimposed ladder electricity prices, the follow-up high energy consumption, high cost production capacity is expected to accelerate the clearance. In the short term, although a small amount of production capacity of some aluminum plants in China has resumed production, it is still mainly based on troughing, and the outflow of aluminum ingots is limited;
(2) Demand side: this week the operating rate of aluminum processing enterprises remained stable at 67.6%, the operating rate of recycled alloys and aluminum profiles decreased by 0.6 and 0.9 percentage points respectively, and some areas were driven by photovoltaic and other electronic accessories, and the operating rate of aluminum cables and aluminum foil increased by 2.6 and 0.8 percentage points respectively, and the follow-up with the decline in the price of photovoltaic raw materials, the recovery of demand is expected to further increase the operating rate of photovoltaic materials such as aluminum foil;
(3) Inventory end: More than 200,000 tons of spot aluminum ingots were removed from the warehouse in December. As of December 31, the spot inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 799,000 tons, and the weekly depot was 65,000 tons; the inventory of aluminum rods was 80,300 tons, the weekly depot was 0.57 million tons, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum in the factory was 105,000 tons, and the weekly depot was 0.3 million tons;
(4) Profit side: This week, the price of alumina and coal continued to fall, and the cost end of the profit of electrolytic aluminum eased, and the current profitability of ton of aluminum was repaired to about 4219 yuan.
2) Cycle judgment: "Electrolytic aluminum and alumina unit product energy consumption limit" in the "ton of aluminum unit consumption standards further improved, tons of aluminum profit or challenge the previous high
In the long term, the "14th Five-Year Plan" Raw Material Industry Development Plan landed, and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology set the tone that the production capacity of raw material bulk products will only decrease by 2025, and the carbon emissions of electrolytic aluminum will be reduced by 5%. In the newly revised "Energy Consumption Limit for Electrolytic Aluminum and Alumina Unit Products", the single consumption standard for ton of aluminum per ton is further improved, and the high energy consumption capacity is expected to accelerate the clearance.
In the short term, European aluminum plants have set off a wave of shutdowns this week due to the energy crisis, and production cuts are expected to continue to ferment. Superimposed on the approaching of the domestic Winter Olympics, the expected increase in production restrictions, and the contraction of the global supply side of electrolytic aluminum or exceed expectations. Electrolytic aluminum observation core, or from the logic of demand to the logic of supply, tons of aluminum profitability or ahead of the high.
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