On the occasion of the New Year's Eve, there are many major events in South Korean politics. A few years ago, Moon Jae-in suddenly announced that he had pardoned former President Park Geun-hye in prison, and just after the end of the year, South Korea's largest opposition party, the National Power Party, suffered another serious setback, and the party's presidential candidate Yoon Seok-wook jumped into the polls, and its support was surpassed by the ruling party candidate Lee Jae-myung, at the same time, Yoon Seok-wook's campaign announced its collective resignation. Is it true that, as some have speculated, that the pardon of Park Geun-hye is Moon Jae-in's scheme to sabotage the opposition elections?
Yin Xiyue's new year black start: poll diving, party backstabbing
A number of South Korean polling agencies announced the results of the polls for the next presidential candidate on January 3, and the data showed that yoon Seok-yue, who was still in the lead a few years ago, has shown a diving trend, from 39% a few years ago to about 30%, while the support of the ruling party candidate Lee Jae-ming is stable and good, rising from 36% to about 39% a year ago, and the reversal is obvious. Today, the difference in polling data between the two is close to 10%, and even after removing the inevitable errors, Lee still has a clear advantage.
After diving in the polls, Yin Xiyue also suffered backstabbing in the party. On the afternoon of the 3rd, the entire leadership team of Yin Xiyue's Election Committee expressed their intentions to him together, although Kim Jong-in, chairman of the Election Countermeasures Committee, said that he would not resign, but it can also be seen that there is a lot of controversy within the National Power Party about Yin Xiyue's candidacy. After a series of scandals and polls diving, opponents would rather resign than continue to help Yin campaign.
Yin Xiyue himself said on the same day that he would stop all trips on the 4th and begin to fully reorganize the campaign team. Subsequently, the National Forces Party whip Jin Qixuan said that he resigned from the position of co-chairman of the Central Election Countermeasures Committee and the party whip. South Korea's big move will take place on March 9, 2022, and suffering such a big setback at such a close date to the election is a black start to the New Year for Yoon Seok-yue.
Yin Xiyue's polls plummeted, what happened?
Judging from the change in the support rate of the polls, Li Zaiming rose slightly by about 3%, and Yin Xiyue plummeted by 9%. In other words, Yoon lost a serious point, and the South Korean people were very dissatisfied with his performance.
"One day without a word", this is a ridicule of Yoon Seok-yue in the South Korean media, which can also see the fatal flaw of the opposition candidate: in public, he has no cover for his mouth and sends bullets to political opponents. For example, during the Tokyo Olympics, when Japan and South Korea were fighting over the nuclear pollution of Fukushima, Yoon Seok-yue openly claimed in an interview that no nuclear leak had occurred in Fukushima, which led to an uproar in South Korean public opinion. At that time, some people thought that if Yin Xiyue's words were his true thoughts, then his basic qualities as a presidential candidate were questionable, and there were also people within the National Power Party who called for him to be careful in his words and deeds.
For example, before the death of South Korean military dictator Chun Doo-hwan, Yoon Seok-wook, despite popular sentiment, publicly said, "In addition to the military coup and 5-18, many people said that Chun Doo-hwan's politics was well done." You know, after the death of Chun Doo-hwan, South Korean officials rarely refused to hold a state funeral for the former president, and the Korean media did not call him the former president, but directly called him by his name. Yin Xiyue stabbed down the big basket, causing a lot of public condemnation.
The Korean media summary of "one day to lose a word", is not an exaggeration, social media even has a #Yin Xiyue said what today #hashtag, it can be seen that Yin Xiyue thunder people thunder language is really a lot.
In addition to "losing a word in one day", Yin Xiyue's handling of the scandal has also been widely criticized. A few years ago, South Korean candidates from both parties threw each other a scandal: Yoon Seok-wook's wife Kim Jian-hee was hammered for falsifying her resume, and Lee Jae-myung's son was exposed to gambling. At best, this matter is only a bit disgusting to the other side before the election, but Yin Xiyue's handling of it reveals that he does not have the ability to deal with public crisis events as a politician. Lee Zaiming bowed his head and confessed his mistake at the first time the scandal was exposed. On the other hand, Yin Xiyue and his wife refused to admit their mistakes at first, thinking that this was not a matter at all.
After the Jin Jianxi scandal was exposed, Yin Xiyue not only did not apologize at the first time, but refused to admit that his resume was fraudulent, and also had many words of protection for his wife; Jin Jianxi himself refused to admit his mistake. Until the matter was inextricably broken, Jin Jianxi held a press conference to apologize under the pressure of public opinion, but according to Korean media reports, she did not mention the falsification of her resume the whole time, and immediately left the scene after reading the public relations draft, and Yin Xiyue's late apology was also very perfunctory. It can be said that Yin's handling of this matter is a completely public relations disaster.
The collapse of Yin Xiyue's polls should be said to be a process of quantitative changes leading to qualitative changes, and the dissatisfaction within the Kuomintang party is also accumulated day by day. The collective resignation of the election team is not unrelated to Yin Xiyue's own poor performance in the past few months.
How did Moon's pardon of Park Geun-hye affect Yoon Seok-wook?
Judging from the scene of the celebration outside the supporters' hospital on the day of Park Geun-hye's amnesty, the former president has a large number of die-hard supporters in South Korea's conservatives. Analysts in South Korea also believe that Park Geun-hye was pardoned and that yoon Seok-wook, the key figure who impeached her and now the conservative presidential candidate, would be hit in disguise. Especially considering that Park Geun-hye is the president of the conservative faction, and is the only president in South Korean history who has been elected with more than half of the support, and the current National Power Party is still a political party formed by the major forces of the conservative camp after Park Geun-hye stepped down, the impact of Park Geun-hye's amnesty on Yoon Seok-woo is likely to last a long time.
Yoon Seok-wook clearly felt the pressure that Park Geun-hye was putting on her release. On December 28, before Park Geun-hye was officially released (Moon Jae-in announced amnesty on the 24th and officially released at 0:00 on the 31st), Yoon Hee-yue publicly said softly, "At that time, the investigation of former President Park was the duty of public officials, but politically and psychologically, I am very sorry about this matter." And Yoon also hinted that he would visit after Park Geun-hye recovered.
What is Park Geun-hye's attitude? There is a detail worth paying attention to, before her release, Park Geun-hye has been receiving treatment in the hospital for health problems, and her sister Park Geun-hye revealed that Park Geun-hye's teeth deteriorated and could not chew food, and originally could only drink porridge, but after learning of the amnesty, she wanted a bowl of soft rice on the same day. Whether Park Geun-hye's own health is as bad as it has been rumored is debatable.
In addition, with the release of Park Geun-hye, her new book "Not Everyone Misses Everyone" is also a hit in South Korea. In the book, Park Geun-hye mentions her impeachment, claiming that "lies can temporarily cover her eyes and ears and deceive the world, but with the passage of time, the truth will surely come out", and at the same time she justified herself from the "Sewol" incident and denied the interference of her cronies in politics. ”
It can be seen that after being pardoned for more than 4 years in prison, Park Geun-hye is still grumpy about the impeachment of that year, and she is desperately trying to wash herself, not excluding that she still has political demands. If Park Geun-hye really decides to retaliate, the simplest and most direct target is Yoon Seok-wook, after all, if Weiwei's former "king-killer" wants to win the election, he must win the support of conservative voters, among whom Park Geun-hye has many supporters. Overturning the impeachment of that year will also bring a fatal blow to Yin Xiyue.
There is no dispute that Park Geun-hye's amnesty at this sensitive time three months before the South Korean election will certainly stir up the Korean political arena, but to say that the amnesty for Park Geun-hye is Moon Jae-in's political layout, at least for now, it is impossible to hammer. Yin Xiyue's sharp fall in the polls and the backstabbing in the party are largely due to his own style of doing things, the negative effects of the collapse of the previously established personnel, and of course, the differences within the National Power Party. However, now that both parties in South Korea have decided to leave, it is impossible for the National Power Party to regret it. It depends on how things develop in the future, after all, Li Zaiming is still carrying a time bomb suspected of corruption. Until the last moment, who dares to say that they are sure to win?