Image source @ Visual China
Wen 丨 Koi Finance
There is nothing that a hot pot can not solve, into the winter, the street side of the big and small hot pot restaurants are in full swing, Haidilao door queues can be lined up from here to France, but this brand that will do the ultimate service does not seem to get much winter shelter.
Last month, the announcement of Haidilao's plan to close 300 stores rushed to the hot search, Haidilao's tide of store closures surged this year, and data showed that as of now, Haidilao's cumulative closure of more than 300 stores in the fourth quarter has exceeded 300. Among them, the new first-tier cities have the most closed stores, with more than 80 stores accounting for more than a quarter, and the fifth-tier cities have the highest closure rate, closing more than 25% of the operating stores in one quarter.
At the same time, nearly half of Haidilao's 8 fast food brands have experienced some store closures. Since 1994, the four tables propped up in Jianyang, Sichuan Province, Haidilao have expanded wildly, and everywhere they went, they have become an artifact of drainage in the business circle.
Imagine a big rule set by the old Sam to Wal-Mart: always provide services that exceed customer expectations, and there are countless imitators around the world, but there are not many blues that are better than blue, and Haidilao counts as one. Today, the side of the three hundred stores that are about to close reflects the depression of service-orientedism in business logic, and the "big thunder" of Haidilao's stores has actually been buried.
Sooner or later, the advantage taken will be repaid?
Haidilao's achievements in the past few years have been enough for it to be proud in the catering market for many years, and from 2017 to 2019, these two years are of great significance to Haidilao.
According to the survey, since 2017, the number of Haidilao stores has expanded at a compound annual rate of 41%, and the speed of opening stores in 2018 can reach more than 50%. Haidilao can be called "expansion maniac", although it has grown wildly all the way, but luck is lucky in the reputation, no matter where you go there are many diners waiting for you, rarely cold.
Even if those spoiled services that suffocate the society are increasingly criticized, the reason why Haidilao has a solid position in the circle comes from the service ecology. Relying on excellent passers-by popularity, Haidilao's bold axe in the first two years does not seem to be too big a slot, and in 2020, when offline catering is full of mourning, Haidilao's rush is incompatible with the entire track.
It is reported that within 2020 alone, Haidilao has opened more than 500 stores. What is the concept of this number? You know, Naixue's tea in 2020 has not accumulated 600 stores, has been with Haidilao only 78 Bunu Mao belly hot pot, Haidilao spent four and a half years, the total number of stores expanded by nearly 6 times.
As for why Haidilao can be so high-profile in 2020. On the one hand, the consumer market in the post-epidemic era has briefly set off a retaliatory consumption, whether it is within the five rings or outside the five rings, the core of the upgraded consumption structure has undergone earth-shaking changes, in short, consumers are greatly less sensitive to price while pursuing satisfaction.
On the other hand, offline consumption was too bleak to look at at at that time, and the major business circles were anxious to recover, and Haidilao, as a veritable traffic pool, was naturally robbed. It is reported that Haidilao is willful in the business circle to ordinary people can not imagine, some commercial complexes want Haidilao to settle in the conditions of the minute to dominate the upper body.
For example, three to five years of rent exemption, subsidies for decoration fees, and even some to ensure that its daily turnover can recover operating costs, which means that if Haidilao's cost in the business circle is 50,000 a day, the profit is only 30,000, the business circle will have to pay out of its own pocket to subsidize 20,000, Haidilao has a strong bargaining power for the property side.
Haidilao has opened so many stores, the cost of rent can be negligible, the data shows that the rent cost of ordinary catering brands accounts for 20%-30% of the total cost, and the rent cost of Haidilao is only 4%, especially in 2020, when the major business circles are waiting for Haidilao to save their lives, the rent of Haidilao accounts for only 0.8%.
To say that Haidilao is the savior of offline consumption, is to take advantage of the void or to enter, in short, confirms the old saying: sooner or later out of the mix is to be repaid. For Haidilao, the anxiety after the rapid expansion came a little quickly, against the commercial aura, the cost of rent was down, but the cost of staff was rising.
Judging from Haidilao's financial reports over the years, in 2019, Haidilao incurred a total of 7.9926 billion yuan in employee costs, and by the end of 2020, Haidilao had a total of 131084 employees, and employee costs surged to 9.676 billion yuan, an increase of 21% year-on-year. In 2021, in the first half of the year alone, Haidilao's employees soared to 140505, and the cost of employees reached 7.162 billion yuan in half a year, an increase of 75.8% year-on-year.
Of course, the tide of store closures can not inevitably blame all the reasons for the imbalance of the cost structure, these years, Haidilao is obviously testing the sinking market, especially when the consumption upgrade is wantonly shouted, the five rings outside the life pressure to reduce the burden of the background of the outbreak of strong consumption capacity, and the slightly blank market state has made countless capital cognitive bias.
Haidilao is one of them. In 2020, Haidilao will open 503 new stores, 70 first-tier cities, 174 second-tier cities, 259 third-tier cities and markets below, in the first half of 2021, Haidilao will open 297 new stores in mainland China, 38 first-tier cities, 98 second-tier cities, 361 third-tier cities and below, 1491 Haidilao's national total stores, and about 41% of its stores are in third-tier and below markets.
However, the increase in the consumption capacity of lower-tier cities has little to do with the income level in essence, more often from induction and emotional satisfaction, once a new momentum for something, the frequency of consumption is significantly reduced, Haidilao's experience in the sinking market can be imagined. From the perspective of the turnover rate, in the first half of 2015-2021, the stores in third-tier cities and below have almost always been the lowest in the same period compared with first- and second-tier cities.
It is reported that the turnover rate of new stores in Haidilao in these years has dropped from 4.6 in 2017 to 4.5 in 2018, and then to 4.1 in 2019, and continues to decline by 31.7% to 2.8 in 2020, which is inseparable from the fact that stores have taken root in lower-tier cities. No amount of stimulus can afford such consumption, and Haidilao will have to close 300 stores, which is almost equivalent to one-fifth of the total number of stores.
Once Haidilao in the business world every step of the bet is called an exhaustive strategy, whether it is the accurate grasp of consumer psychology, or pushed to the altar of serviceism, from 2015 to 2020 Haidilao's total number of closed stores are less than forty, and now, with the head to turn over, the market to the brand is like a boiled frog, unconsciously, the crisis has arrived.
Why do restaurant startups get together in hot pot?
Last year, a news piece of news in the hot pot circle rippled on a small scale. According to media reports, by the end of 2020, the number of college students in Banu enterprises is as high as 1257, accounting for 27% of the total number of employees, banu even announced that it will increase the proportion of front-line employees to 50% in the next year, and train 15,000 college students in the next five years.
The catering market is the opposite of the white-collar life in the workplace where young people have a few clear windows, once in the job search circle, men and women were in tears, but in recent years, the young people who have poured into the catering industry are not in the minority, especially the major hot pot brands, after the outside world rumored that the haidilao store manager has a monthly salary of 120,000, and it has also attracted a number of young people to raise their hands on social platforms.
However, young people's entry into hot pot restaurants has nothing to do with the sea of stars in the workplace, and they may be "copying homework" or not.
According to the data given by the Ministry of Education, the total scale of graduates of the class of 2021 is 9.09 million, the proportion of entrepreneurial ideas is 45.85%, and the proportion of those who hope to start a business directly after graduation is 3.71%, and the catering industry has become a popular choice for countless college students to start a business, of which hot pot is due to the low threshold, not dependent on chefs, and the audience is wide, which causes young people to bend their backs for a while.
According to enterprise investigation data, in the first ten months of this year, the number of hot pot-related registered enterprises reached 63,000, compared with other catering categories, the industrial chain of hot pot is indeed relatively short, and the catering market has always been the most headache Difficult to adjust In terms of hot pot, it is easy to standardize. It is not surprising that hot pot has become the core force of the restaurant entrepreneurship community, and a set of data also expresses the "potential" of this track from an objective point of view.
According to a report released by the China Hotel Association, the hot pot industry's revenue per square meter is 26,300 yuan, much higher than the fast food industry's 25,000 yuan, the dinner industry's 10,200 yuan, in terms of net profit margin, hot pot reached 11.8%, also higher than the other two types of catering.
Since 2017, the annual year-on-year growth rate of hot pot has remained above 10%, and the market share has continued to rise. Some media have counted several areas that young people are most enthusiastic about entrepreneurship, tea, coffee, pets... The profitability of the hot pot seems to be a little higher. It is reported that because the supply side is easy to copy, the base, dipping sauce, dishes are quickly supplied, excellent hot pot restaurants can achieve a single month's breakeven in 1-3 months, and recover investment costs in 6-12 months.
All kinds of myths circulating in the catering industry will be entrepreneurs' expectations of hot pot greatly increased, full of expectations to break into more and more people, it is true, under the impact of capital, catering entrepreneurship in the past two years set off many waves, this year's investment in the field of hot pot more than 13 times, coupled with the star group to open a hot pot shop, young people want to open a hot pot shop Life goal once can be comparable to Wenqing's bookstores, flower shops, coffee shops, many franchised brands smell the wind.
Taking Chen He's Xianhezhuang as an example, its franchise information shows that if you want to open a 300-square-meter hot pot restaurant, you must pay a franchise fee of 480,000 yuan and a deposit of 50,000 yuan. Combined with decoration costs, design fees, substrate procurement, and marketing costs, the total investment of a store exceeds 1.6 million yuan. Zheng Kai's Huofengxiang fresh hot pot franchise fee is 280,000 yuan, which is only a brand use fee, but also need to pay a deposit of 50,000 yuan, decoration design and equipment and so on have to add additional money.
Even if the investment is high, the people who come to join are still flocking.
Xianhezhuang currently has more than 680 branches, in other words, the brand's franchise fee has exceeded 300 million, and Huofengxiang, which has just opened for a long time, has accumulated more than 50 stores, and the brand is expected to reach 450 stores by the end of 2022. Every entrepreneur dreams of getting rich overnight, and this eagerness is easy to exploit.
The "return on investment information table" given by Xianhezhuang is very tempting, in the imagination, the average daily turnover rate of the brand franchise store can reach 2.2, the average daily turnover is more than 24,000 yuan, the gross profit margin is as high as 60%, and it only takes more than 9 months for the franchisee to return the cost. Huo Fengxiang's investment return cycle is as short as more than 7 months.
Is hot pot really that profitable? In fact, the closure rate of the catering industry is as high as 70%, while the failure rate of hot pot restaurants accounts for 50%. As for the "commitment" given by those franchised brands, it does not stand up to scrutiny at all, the gross profit margin of Haidilao is between 18% and 25%, the gross profit margin of Jiumaojiu is between 15% and 20%, and the gross profit margin of 60% of Xianhezhuang is more like a capital joke.
Some people compare hot pot to rivers and lakes, and three or five friends surround a pot to stir up the hot wind. On the road to entrepreneurship, everyone in the industry wants to reduce the dimension to attack Haidilao, but the capital stares at the pockets of the entrepreneurs and refuses to leave half a step, and the story of "cutting leeks" is often crueler than imagined.
While the financing did not stop, the bleeding continued
2021 is the most magical year in the restaurant industry.
On the one hand, this year's capital appetite is greatly open, and it is not taboo to skewer, powder, dim sum, milk tea, and spicy hot meat. Forward-looking data statistics, as of August this year, the catering market has a total of 86 financing events, the amount of investment reached 43.91 billion yuan, more than twice as much as in 2020, at the same time, this year's catering industry has also given birth to the largest number of listed companies in history, as of June 2021, A shares, Hong Kong stocks A total of 203 companies related to "eating".
But on the other hand, the tide of store closures in the catering industry has also followed. In August, It decided to close 200 loss-making stores, and in November, Haidilao launched the "Woodpecker Program", announcing that it would close 300 stores by December 31. Top-notch tea Yan Yuese closed 70 or 80 stores this year, and the new elements simply went bankrupt and liquidated.
Overlooking the entire catering market, it can be described as clear and clear, this box is flowers and applause, but that box is cold eyes and questions. From a macro point of view, the growth rate of China's catering revenue will remain between 8.0% and 9.0% from 2020 to 2026, and the catering revenue is expected to reach about 8,165 billion yuan by 2026.
In the end, whether the industry can give birth to the next Haidilao, the next Xibei, the attitude of capital in the environment of continuous growth seems to be extremely positive.
In 2020, affected by the external environment, catering businesses in the face of severe costs and cash flow, most of them are vulnerable, Ai Media Consulting shows that in the first half of last year, the scale of revenue in the catering industry was 1460.9 billion yuan, down 32.8% year-on-year, after the recovery of the consumption environment this year, the capital area was active, but the catering industry did not change much because of the inflow of capital, but exposed more anxiety.
Capital does not love the house and Wu, favor the entire catering track, new consumption smoke, tea drink powder Lanzhou ramen is "fragrant food", but China's catering industry is mostly dinner, accounting for 42.39%, Western casual catering accounted for 19.86%, hot pot accounted for 12.06%, group meals accounted for 11.35%, fast food accounted for only 7.96%.
Other segments have no capital protection in the post-epidemic era, and they still live a life of frugality, especially prices soaring across the board. At the end of October, vegetables rose sharply, almost in the same time period, the ex-factory price of some products of Haitian Flavor Industry was raised by 3%-7%, and Head enterprises such as Lee Kum Kee, Jiajia Food, and Hengshun Vinegar Industry followed up.
The entire supply chain behind the catering industry has been increasing prices, from March to April 2021, the grain and oil leader Arowana adjusted the prices of different oil species, the overall price increase was about 10% to 15%, and Tianwei Food raised the price of its company's 2 products in mid-October. In November, both Yasui Foods and Haixin Foods issued announcements on product price adjustments ranging from 3% to 10%.
The cost of raw materials is rising, small shops can't hold back, and big shops are bleeding. In the 2021 semi-annual report, the cost of raw materials disclosed by Haidilao accounted for 42.3% of the total revenue. Key brand restaurants do not dare to easily increase prices, otherwise the loss caused by the public opinion rebound on the brand image is immeasurable, in April, Haidilao and Xibei tried to increase prices, and the result was reprimanded by netizens.
This not only stings the consumers who are waiting to be fed at the door, but also injures their own people by mistake, which is difficult, and there is more than one Haidilao.