Musk's last day of 2021 said: The next recession will come as early as spring 2022

　Source: Wall Street Insights

On the last day of 2021, Musk's statement is a bit mournful.

　　On the last day of 2021, a statement by Musk, the world's richest man, gave people a "sense of urgency".

　　Musk responded to a tweet (43.22, -1.24, -2.79%) about "936 startups currently valued at more than $1 billion" that most startups won't survive the next recession if history can be used as a reference.

　　Asked further when he thought the next recession would occur, Musk said, "Forecasting the macro economy is challenging." My hunch is that recession will come around the spring or summer of 2022, no later than 2023. ”

　　Just about a month ago, Musk tweeted on November 30 that SpaceX could face bankruptcy during the next recession. The global economy is in a huge recession, liquidity can be tight, and SpaceX's costs are staggering, and while SpaceX is unlikely to go bankrupt, it's not impossible.

　　In 2021, the net worth of the top ten richest people increased by a total of about $400 billion, and Musk ranked first. Its net worth has increased by $118 billion in the past year, making it the world's richest man. Musk's $121 billion in net assets added this year is slightly lower than the $140 billion increased in 2020. His wealth growth is largely due to the rapid expansion of his electric vehicle manufacturing business. Tesla's (1056.78, -13.56, -1.27%) stock is up about 50 percent this year, and the company's market capitalization surpassed $1 trillion for the first time in October. Musk has recently been selling tesla stock in large quantities to pay nearly $12 billion in taxes this year.

　　Previously, former U.S. Treasury Secretary Summers had warned that the U.S. economy would face a severe test in the coming years, with the risk of recession and stagnation. Summers pointed out that it would be a good thing if the U.S. economy could continue to operate in a hotter way, but inflation has now reached a point where it is difficult to reduce without triggering a recession, as the bitter lesson of the 70s was learned. Summers pointed out that the risk of "secular stagnation" remains, or a Great Depression situation, with economic growth falling and interest rates below historical normal levels. From the next few years, secular stagnation is a real risk.

　　Goldman Sachs (382.55, -2.97, -0.77%) is also not optimistic about the future (3.93, -0.01, -0.25%) OF the US economy. Currently, the market is unanimously expecting GDP growth of 3.4% in the fourth quarter of 2021 and the median expectation of FOMC participants on the Fed Open Market Committee at 4.0%. Goldman Sachs' latest forecast is 2.4% (or 3.5% for the full year) based on the fourth quarter. Goldman Sachs believes the deceleration in the first quarter of 2022 is likely to be most pronounced, as the Omilon variant will affect the services sector and labor supply, exacerbating global supply chain disruptions. Overall, 2022, the main focus is on a massive fiscal correction in the United States.