2021, the evolution and differentiation of A shares

There was so much to think about this year

Wen | Caijing reporter Huang Huiling and Zhang Xinpei

Editor| Lu Ling

On the last trading day of 2021, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3639.78 points, up 4.8% for the whole year, and the ChiNext Index rose 12.02% for the whole year, both achieving the annual line of three consecutive Yang.

Behind the stability of the index is a huge differentiation. If you can only sum up the capital market in 2021 in one word, it is "unthinkable".

There was so much to think about this year. I can't imagine that Internet companies have triggered a downward tide of Chinese stocks under the pressure of both internal and external supervision, I can't imagine that real estate has experienced an industry debt crisis, I can't think of the "double reduction" policy of the education industry, I can't think of the Beijing Stock Exchange turning out, I can't think of losing money when I play new, I can't think of Moutai YYDS being broken, I can't think of "carbon neutrality" becoming the strongest concept of the year, and I can't think of new energy continuing to be king.

In 2021, Mr. Market has become firmer and more attitude in countless "unexpected" exclamations, and the socialist values behind China's capital market have become clearer.

Exponential differentiation

Compared with the full-fledged 2020, A shares in 2021 are very inferior.

For two consecutive years, big blue-chip stocks topped the decline list. According to Wind data, the SSE 50 fell by 10% for the whole year, and the second-tier blue chip represented the SSE 180 index fell by 5.19% for the whole year.

The constituent stocks of the CSI 300 are the 300 stocks with the largest scale and the strongest liquidity in the two cities of Shanghai and Shenzhen, and the core assets and white horse stocks are mostly gathered here. This year, the CSI 300 index fell 5.2%. In the past two years, the CSI 300 has been the object of capital pursuit.

On the other hand, small and mid-cap stocks are rising strongly, with the CSI 1000 and CSSE 2000, which represent the mid- and mid-cap, up 20% and 29% respectively.

"The core reason for the good small and medium-cap market this year is that the performance elasticity is greater, superimposed on the continuous rise of large-cap blue-chip stocks in the past few years, and the valuation has also risen significantly, and the valuation of small and medium-cap companies is also relatively low." Ai Xiongfeng, a strategic analyst and head of the strategy team at Guojin Securities, told Caijing reporters.

The chief research officer of Xingshi Investment pointed out to the Reporter of Caijing that the optimization of the domestic industrial pattern, the incremental opportunities brought about by the development of emerging industries, the concept of "specialization and specialization" and the formal establishment of the Beijing Stock Exchange are conducive to the interpretation of the style of small and medium-caps. The data shows that the "specialized special new" index rose 31% this year, significantly outperforming the CSI 300 and CSI 500 indexes.

The ChiNext index also brought unexpected surprises, achieving a 12.21% increase in the whole year, ranking first among all important indexes. Correspondingly, Kechuang 50 is composed of 50 stocks with the largest market value and the best liquidity in the science and technology innovation board, which has only slightly increased by 0.37% this year.

Ai Xiongfeng, a strategic analyst and head of the strategy team at Guojin Securities, analyzed to the Caijing reporter that the core difference comes from the difference in industry weights of the two indices. The sectors with higher weights of the ChiNext board are mainly concentrated in the field of new energy, and as the main line of new energy continues to be strong this year, the ChiNext index has also reaped higher returns. The sectors with the largest weights in the Kechuang 50 Index are semiconductors and computers, and the performance of these sectors has been relatively tortuous this year.

Rotational opportunities

The boom in small-cap stocks has given quantitative funds, as well as some smaller fund managers, the opportunity to "get ahead."

Sheng Fengyan, the fund manager of Western Lide Fund, made a judgment in April this year that the good days of quantitative stock selection in public offerings are coming. "From 2017 to the beginning of 2021, the starting point of these four years is the premium of the leading discounted small tickets. The end of these 4 years is the premium of the small ticket discount leader. Such an extreme leader continues to hang small tickets for a decade, and there may be no one to come after. ”

Although the index has not changed much this year and seems calm on the surface, it has been very active in trading. In 2021, the turnover of A-shares will exceed one trillion yuan continuously.

Since July 21 this year, the turnover of Shanghai and Shenzhen has remained above trillion yuan for 49 trading days, setting a record for the longest transaction of trillion yuan in the history of A-shares. As of December 24, A-shares had a turnover of more than one trillion yuan in 146 trading days this year. Strange words such as quantitative trading and high-frequency trading have suddenly broken into the public eye. Fund managers such as Liu Changchang of Huaan Fund and Yang Jinjin of Bocom Schroder Fund have also become "dark horses" that have attracted much attention this year.

Unfortunately, for most of the new entrants, the small treasury is still deeply entrenched in the "top stream" fund. And for the top fund managers, there are also words of suffering. This year's investment difficulty is unprecedented.

On the one hand, it needs to be more forward-looking and more precise, the circle of ability needs to be expanded urgently, and the turnover rate will inevitably decrease. On the other hand, there is a sharp reduction in the number of optional targets. For them, small-cap stocks are a beauty that can only be seen from a distance and cannot be approached: the trading volume is sluggish before the stock price rises, and the big funds cannot buy it. After the rise, the volume was active, but the valuation became unattractive.

A two-billion-dollar fund manager said that at his current size, five billion stocks are basically impossible to consider. A fund manager of more than $50 billion said that stocks with a market capitalization of $10 billion are not particularly good and are not likely to buy.

Another big opportunity this year is the cycle. But in fact, many old drivers are far away from the attitude of cyclical stocks. Some fund managers said that buying cyclical stocks is a bad experience. Because there is a cycle, I will think of selling. Because you want to sell, it is easy to buy less, or buy wrong and sell wrong.

A fund manager who has been in the industry for more than 20 years and is known for being good at cyclical stocks told Caijing that he used to like to grasp macro trends, and after paying a lot of tuition, he decided to focus his research on long-term trends rather than macro factors.

Old drivers voluntarily gave up the cycle, while young fund managers still try to grasp the opportunity to make money in the cycle and feel the thrill of the cycle. "In hindsight, it's not as effective as finding companies in new energy." A fund manager in Shanghai concluded.

Small-cap stocks can't be bought, and cyclical stocks don't dare to buy. In contrast, new energy is much friendlier. There is both a strong blessing of carbon neutrality policies and a large amount of capital. The new energy sector of big water and big fish showed a strong money-making effect, and also attracted fund managers in other fields such as consumption and medicine to flock to it, becoming YYDS.

However, in the face of the rush of funds, Yinhua Fund Jiao Wei is very cautious. He likened new energy to a missed "pie" and asked the "pie": "Will it go down or up when it falls?" Will it pull China into a stagflation trap similar to that of the United States in the 70s? Jiao Wei's worries are slowly waning." This central work conference has been raising this issue, do not make carbon peaks into 'carbon charges'. ”

Jiao Wei's main direction of attack is consumption. If Jiao Wei's miss is an outsider's regret, then for Lu Bin, research director of HSBC Jinxin Fund, who has long been a new energy, it is subject to the empiricism of insiders.

Lu Bin is the champion of the 2020 equity fund, and the annual return of its products this year is also around 40%. From the perspective of all-market products, the revenue has far exceeded the average. However, if compared with the players of the new energy track, the sharpness is insufficient.

Lu Bin loves to "toss". He hopes to reduce the volatility of the portfolio and enhance the earnings through his own adjustments. But in hindsight, it would be wrong to sell new energy and buy other industries at any point in time this year. "On the one hand, the scale is large, and it is impossible to do very extreme in one direction regardless of risk." On the other hand, degrees of things are difficult to grasp. Even if it's to get him to do it all over again. ”

A typical example is the sale of PV this year. "In May, I felt that the price of the product was up, and the whole industry may suppress demand, at least not more than expected, and then sell." But the result was unexpected by Lu Bin. PV not only did not have the expected risks, but became one of the sectors with the best growth this year. "In fact, I am also reflecting, why do I still use my previous investment research experience to understand this market? In hindsight, it was time to adapt to this market. It should be predicted in advance that the policy and environment of the market have changed. Lu Bin said.

The direction of the tide

In 2021, the trillion market value club has a new member. The Ningde era rose by 66% throughout the year, and the market value increased from 817.9 billion yuan at the end of last year to 1.36 trillion yuan, becoming the standard position of public funds and the "Ning Wang" in people's eyes. On the other hand, Ping An of China, Chinese Shou and Wuliangye fell below trillions.

Wind data shows that there are 2867 stocks that rose in 2021, accounting for 61%. There were 1815 stocks that fell, accounting for 39%.

Among them, there are 345 stocks that have doubled their gains. The top 10 stocks in the list rose by more than 400%. At the top of the list of gains is the Beijing Stock Exchange company Jilin Carbon Valley, with an increase of 762%. Jilin Carbon Valley was transferred from the select layer to the Beijing Stock Exchange on November 15. From the perspective of the first ten stocks, the industry distribution is very scattered, including chemicals, media, communications and so on. There is no obvious concentration of the industry.

Some rejoice and some are worried. This year, due to the double reduction policy, the education industry suffered the hardest. Public education ranked first in the list of declines with a 77% decline. The decline in university education also reached 64%, ranking tenth in decline. The real estate industry has been on the cusp of the storm this year, defaults continue, and related companies are also difficult to escape the withdrawal of funds. Huaxia Happiness fell by 72%.

In the view of Jiao Wei, fund manager of Yinhua Fund, this is the projection of the capital market when the government solves the "middle-income trap". When governments begin to make a real determination to address the middle-income development trap, some models of liberalism are vigorously suppressed. "Education and high-end medical services should return to the attributes of social services." The problem with real estate is due to the fragility of the government's anti-financial system. Industries involved in the middle-income trap should be avoided in the investment process for some time to come. ”

This year, the breaking of new stock listings has gradually become the norm. Wind data shows that in 2021, 22 individual stocks broke at the opening. Under the repeated rectification of the regulatory level, the group quotation has been hit, and the environment for new stock issuance has been improved.

"The frequent occurrence of new shares actually reflects the improvement of the market-oriented pricing mechanism under the registration system." This is a sign of the further improvement of China's capital market system. Ai Xiongfeng told the "Finance" reporter.

In 2021, the full registration system is on the agenda. On December 10, at the closing ceremony of the Central Economic Work Conference, it was announced that the stock issuance registration system would be fully implemented. After the reform of the science and technology innovation board test field, the incremental market ChiNext board and the establishment of the Beijing Stock Exchange, China's A-share comprehensive registration system has officially entered the countdown.

While actively creating a policy environment conducive to long-term value enhancement for listed companies, regulators have also demonstrated zero tolerance for the gray and black interest chains and illegal and criminal acts of the capital market with an iron fist.

In May this year, private equity person Ye Fei's revelations exposed the illegal operation of the market by listed companies in the dark. He broke out more than a dozen pseudo-market value management companies, and eventually the actual controllers of a number of listed companies were investigated for "suspected of manipulating the securities market".

After the Kangmei case, the A-share market staged a great retreat of independent directors. The Judgment of Kangmei Case was pronounced, and 5 then independent directors were fined more than 100 million yuan for joint and several liability. Independent directors have always been controversial, "vase directors". But this joint liability scared off most of the independent directors. The phenomenon of "independent directors not independent" may disappear.

After the concept of meta-universe was on fire, a number of listed companies began to rub hot spots and speculate on concepts. Whether there are related technologies or products, they are all hooking up with the meta-universe in various ways, and the final reward can only be the fines from the regulators.