A-shares frequently appear "accurate predictions" Coincidence or insider trading

The Economic Observer

2024-05-25 19:46Posted on the official account of Beijing Economic Observer

Recently, a number of A-share listed companies have staged a drama of "accurate prediction" of stock price trends. These phenomena have aroused widespread attention and heated discussions among investors.

On May 20, a netizen posted in the stock community pointing directly at Nanjing Chemical Fiber (600889. SH) - "2:34 p.m. for a surprise for you". In the afternoon of the same day, the stock price of Nanjing Chemical Fiber "stuck point" changed, deducing the "sky floor" trend, and closed at the limit price on the same day. On May 21, the share price of Nanjing Chemical Fiber was "predicted" again, and the "stuck point" staged a "ground and sky board" trend.

On May 21, a netizen "accurately predicted" Zhongtong Bus (000959. SZ), the stock price "on time" rose to the limit and remained until the close.

The Shanghai Stock Exchange and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange quickly issued documents saying that they had paid attention to the relevant network information of the stock price trend of the above-mentioned stocks on the same day, and immediately started transaction verification. Both the Shanghai Stock Exchange and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange remind investors to pay attention to investment risks and trade in compliance and prudence.

On May 22, Leike Defense (002413. SZ) stock price is also "accurately predicted", and the "stuck point" is up and down. Some netizens jokingly said that this move was "committing a crime against the wind"!

Gu Zhun of Shanghai Guangming Law Firm said that there are two possibilities for the stock price of listed companies to be "accurately predicted": First, the volatility of the stock market is often affected by a variety of factors, including the macroeconomic environment, company performance, market sentiment and so on. Sometimes, some seemingly accurate predictions can be just a coincidence, and not someone else can accurately predict the market movement. Second, some investors suspect that there may be a suspicion of stock price manipulation behind this "accurate forecast". If such predictions are based on some shady means or inside information, then stock price manipulation may be involved. Such behavior is illegal and can seriously undermine the fairness and impartiality of the market.

"Accurate prediction" is frequent

At 13:47 on May 20, in the stock community, a netizen posted on Nanjing Chemical Fiber: I will surprise you at 2:34 p.m.

At 2:34 p.m. on the same day, the share price of Nanjing Chemical Fiber quickly turned down, changing from a limit to a down limit. After closing, the netizen replied to the message: "I surprised you at 2:34, and I still see more there." ”

After being suspected of manipulating the stock price, at 17:28 on May 20, the netizen posted again: "It's not me who smashed the market, this can be predicted." ”

On the morning of May 21, the Economic Observer called the relevant person of the Nanjing Chemical Fiber Securities Affairs Department, and the other party replied that the company's production and operation were normal and there were no major changes. After the company's self-examination and verification with the company's controlling shareholder, the company does not have any major matters that should be disclosed but have not been disclosed or major matters in the planning stage. On the afternoon of May 21, Nanjing Chemical Fiber disclosed that the company's main business is still cellulose fiber and PET structural core materials, and the company's products do not involve carbon fiber, and the company's business does not involve concepts such as low-altitude economy. The company's production and operation are normal, and no major changes have occurred.

In addition to Nanjing Chemical Fiber, on May 21, Zhongtong Bus and Leike Defense also had a similar situation.

At 12:46 on May 21, a netizen signed "Guoer will not speculate in stocks" said in the stock community of the Flush platform "I am Zhuang, 1:20 pull the limit". After the opening of the afternoon of the same day, the share price of Zhongtong Bus was pulled up by a mysterious force and sealed at 13:21.

On May 22, Zhongtong Bus disclosed that the company paid attention to the relevant messages posted by users of the stock trading software stock bar, as well as the company's stock price limit. Zhongtong Bus is highly concerned about this and immediately conducted a self-examination on this matter. After verification, there is no need to correct or supplement the information disclosed by the company in the early stage; The company's recent production and operation conditions are normal, and no major changes have occurred in the internal and external business environment.

On May 22, some netizens spoke on a platform Leike Defense Stock Bar: Perform on time at ten o'clock.

Starting at 9:53 on May 22, the stock price rose rapidly and closed at the daily limit at around 10 o'clock.

Leike Defense disclosed on the evening of May 22 that it was concerned about the company's stock price limit on May 22, and the relevant information released by users of the stock trading software stock bar. The company was highly concerned about this and immediately conducted a self-examination on this matter. After verification, there is no need to correct or supplement the information disclosed by the company in the early stage. In addition, the company's recent production and operation conditions are normal, and no major changes in the internal and external business environment have occurred and are not expected to occur.

Who is the "prophet".

The Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges acted quickly and issued relevant announcements, unveiling the mysterious "prophet" behind Nanjing Chemical Fiber and Zhongtong Bus.

On May 21, the Shenzhen Stock Exchange issued a decision to restrict trading (Chen Guo). According to the decision, at 12:46 on May 21, 2024, Chen Guo posted in the "Zhongtong Bus Stocks" community on the Flush platform with the screen name "Guoer will not speculate in stocks": "I am Zhuang, 1:20 pull the limit." From 13:12 to 13:20, the share price of "Zhongtong Bus" rose rapidly to the limit and maintained until the close, which attracted market attention.

It was found that the securities account under Chen Guo's name held 700 shares of "Zhongtong Bus" before May 21. At 10:29:25 on May 21, the investor declared to sell 700 shares of "Zhongtong Bus" at a price close to the limit price of 11.87 yuan per share, and cancelled all declarations at 13:17:17 during the rapid rise of the stock.

According to the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, the investor fabricated and disseminated false information to mislead other investors to conduct transactions and disrupt the order of the securities market, which fell under the circumstances listed in Item 5 of Article 6.1 of the Trading Rules of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, and the circumstances were serious. In accordance with Article 6.8 of the Trading Rules of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, the Exchange has decided to impose trading restrictions on the securities account under Chen Guo's name from May 22, 2024 to June 5, 2024, that is, to restrict the relevant account from trading all stocks listed and traded on the Exchange during the above period.

The Shanghai Stock Exchange also issued a notice on the verification of Nanjing Chemical Fiber stocks. The report pointed out that recently, the price of Nanjing chemical fiber stock fluctuated sharply, in response to the relevant investors fabricated, spread misleading information to disrupt the normal trading order of the market, the Shanghai Stock Exchange in accordance with the regulations to suspend the relevant accounts for 15 days of regulatory measures, and has been found to be suspected of violations of laws and regulations handed over for further investigation. The Shanghai Stock Exchange once again reminds investors to pay attention to investment risks and trade in compliance and prudence.

A person in the brokerage industry said that under normal circumstances, if there is no news to support it, the stock price of listed companies will soar and plummet, which is easy to attract regulatory attention. In addition, in the past, the stock prices of listed companies soared and plummeted, and there were frequent figures of floating capital behind them. There are generally two characteristics of such listed companies: first, the equity is relatively dispersed; Second, the total market capitalization is low.

As of the close of trading on May 24, the A-share market value of Nanjing Chemical Fiber, Zhongtong Bus and Leike Defense was 2.2 billion yuan, 6.2 billion yuan and 5.9 billion yuan respectively.

Investors need to be vigilant

Regulators are paying more and more attention to investor education.

On May 15, the China Securities Regulatory Commission held the 2024 "May 15 National Investor Protection Publicity Day". On the same day, the CSRC disclosed a summary of the enforcement situation in 2023. The CSRC pointed out that in 2023, the CSRC will strictly crack down on internal and external collusion to manipulate stock prices; Strictly punish the actual controllers, directors, supervisors, and senior executives of some listed companies in accordance with the law for taking advantage of their capital, shareholdings, information, and other advantages to carry out market manipulation and other violations of laws and regulations that are of a vile nature and have a very bad impact in the name of market value management.

On May 22, a person from the business department of a securities institution in North China said that the company is carrying out investor protection activities recently, further increasing investor education through prize competitions and other methods, and organizing the company's employees to popularize and preach securities investment-related knowledge to investors.

It is reported that the stock bar of platforms such as Flush and Oriental Fortune is a place for investors to gather and communicate. The above-mentioned "accurate prediction" information on the stock prices of Nanjing Chemical Fiber, Zhongtong Bus and Leike Defense comes mostly from this kind of stocks.

On May 22, the Straight Flush Community Platform issued the "Straight Flush Community Announcement on Content Governance", pointing out that the Straight Flush Community Platform will carry out special governance: the platform will take relevant punishment measures for users who fabricate and disseminate false information, mislead other investors to trade, and disrupt the securities market. The Internet is not a place outside the law, and anyone who publishes information related to the securities market on the Internet must abide by the provisions of the law, and must not arbitrarily spread rumors or mislead, undermine the normal dissemination of market information, and affect the normal operation of the market mechanism. At the same time, investors are reminded to enhance their ability to identify network information, pay attention to investment risks, and trade in compliance and prudence.

On the same day, Oriental Fortune Internet Stock Bar issued the "Oriental Fortune Internet Stock Bar Community Content Governance Announcement". According to the content of the announcement, the stock bar community will carry out special content governance. Users shall not fabricate or disseminate false or misleading information in the stock bar community to disrupt the securities market. The platform will strictly investigate and deal with the relevant illegal information, and take cascade punishment measures against the relevant illegal accounts. At the same time, investors are reminded that all information and remarks published by users in the stock bar community only represent their personal views and do not constitute any investment advice for investors, and they operate at their own risk.

On May 23, the Economic Observer called the Flush Securities Affairs Department, and relevant people said that the platform would review similar inappropriate remarks more strictly.

Article 56 of the new Securities Law clearly stipulates that any entity or individual is prohibited from fabricating or disseminating false or misleading information to disrupt the securities market. Anyone who fabricates or disseminates false or misleading information, disrupts the securities market, and causes losses to investors, shall be liable for compensation in accordance with law.

Gu Zhun reminded that investors need to be vigilant and rational. On the one hand, investors need to pay attention to whether the regulatory authorities will investigate and deal with such behavior; On the other hand, investors also need to strengthen their own risk awareness to avoid being affected and misled by market fluctuations. At the same time, investors should follow market rules and laws and regulations when participating in market transactions, and jointly maintain the fairness and impartiality of the market.

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