Unsurprisingly, the FAA EIA report, which was scheduled to determine the fate of the starship by the end of this year, was postponed. It was delayed for two months before it was announced.
At 13:00 EST on December 28, 2021, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) announced that the Environmental Assessment (PEA) for the Texas Starship Base Program has been postponed to February 28, 2022.
On November 22 this year, the FAA announced that the EIA report would be released by the end of this year (latest December 31). As expected, the FAA, which Musk derided as a typical bureaucracy, reneged on its promise and made a hasty announcement three days before the final deadline. To view the FAA announcement, you can click:
https://www.faa.gov/space/stakeholder_engagement/spacex_starship/
As for the reasons for the delay, the FAA gave reasons in the announcement to the effect that:
Since the end of the public comment period, the FAA and SpaceX have been working to finalize an environmental assessment report (PEA) for the launch of starships and super-heavy rockets in Boca Chica, Texas. More than 18,000 comments have been received, and SpaceX is drafting responses to those comments. While SpaceX is responding to these comments, the FAA is consulting and coordinating with local authorities and federal agencies. Both of these factors contributed to the eventual PEA delay.
These reasons seem so strong that spaceX and its supporters cannot refute them.
However, the FAA's implication is obvious: who called the project a big hit, attracting more than 18,000 public comments. The best way to deal with this is not to rush to conclusions – not to publish the results of the EIA quickly. Slowly.
▲ At this moment, it seems that the fastest lightning bolt of civil servants in history has appeared.
The question is, what does it mean for the FAA to delay the release of the EIA report?
This will directly lead to the postponement of the first test flight of the starship system, and the original optimistic expectation of the launch of Q1 (Q1) in 2022 will be in vain.
The reasons for this are not complicated, and the timeline is calculated according to the most optimistic expectations: even if the FAA is telling the truth, the environmental impact assessment report in favor of the starship will be released as scheduled on February 28, 2022, but it does not mean that SpaceX can immediately get the launch license.
There is a link in between.
According to STEVE Klum, a FAA public affairs expert, "Environmental reviews are only part of the FAA's commercial space licensing process. SpaceX's application for a launch license must also meet FAA's liability requirements for safety, risk, property, etc."
Depending on the usual approval time, the review process before the FAA issues a license can take at least one month.
So, realistically, even if the EIA is published on February 28, we will have to wait another month (throughout March) for the FAA to perform a launch permit review. If it successfully passes the review, the SpaceX launch license will be officially issued.
This means that SpaceX will not be able to obtain a launch permit until early April 2022 at the earliest, and the first orbital test flight of the starship system is expected to be launched as early April as early April.
If other uncertainties are taken into account, in fact, the more reliable launch time is likely to be Q2 2022 (Q2).
Life sharpens our will, and starships polish our thoughts.