Under the influence of the epidemic, the number of births and the birth rate in China have also dropped significantly. The recently released "China Statistical Yearbook 2021" shows that the national population birth rate in 2020 was 8.52 ‰, which fell below 10 ‰ (i.e. 1%) for the first time, which has attracted widespread attention.
If you look at it by region, some municipalities directly under the central government and provinces with earlier urbanization rates and higher urbanization rates, such as Northeast China, many provinces in North China and Jiangsu in East China, have had a birth rate of less than 1% for many years. Although the birth rate of the people in each province in 2020 has not yet been fully revealed, in the 2021 statistical yearbook recently released by some provinces, the local population birth rate data for 2020 was released.
Among them, the second largest economic province, Jiangsu, has a population birth rate of 6.66 ‰ in 2020, which is 1.86 thousand points lower than the national average. This is the 21st consecutive year that Jiangsu's birth rate has been less than 10 ‰ (i.e. 1%).
The data shows that in the 43 years from 1978 to 2020, Jiangsu only had 6 years to have more than 1 million births, of which 1990 was the highest, reaching 1.3796 million. Since 1993, jiangsu's annual birth population has all fallen below the 1 million mark. Among them, the number of people born in 2020 was 564,300, down 27.6% from 2016 and only 41% of the peak in 1990.
Population data of Jiangsu since 1978 (Source: Jiangsu Statistical Yearbook 2021)
Ding Changfa, associate professor of the Department of Economics of Xiamen University, analyzed that Jiangsu urbanization was earlier, the living standard was relatively high, and the concept of childbirth had also undergone great changes.
Niu Fengrui, a researcher at the Urban Development and Environment Research Center of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, analyzed the first financial reporter that the birth rate of Jiangsu has always been relatively low, which is related to the stricter implementation of family planning in the past and the relatively high proportion of only children. This low birth rate has also continued to this day, and people born in the 1980s and 1990s have now entered the stage of marriage and childbearing, when there were fewer people born, so the number of people born now is also relatively small.
In some prefectures and cities in Jiangsu, the birth rate fell below 1% earlier. According to the "Nantong Statistical Yearbook 2021" data, Nantong in some years of the 1980s, such as 1980 and 1985 birth rates are less than 1% (about the data before 1995, the yearbook only published part of the year data), although the birth rate in some years has rebounded, but since 1996, Nantong's birth rate has been less than 1% for 25 consecutive years.
In addition to the low birth rate, Jiangsu's aging degree is also relatively deep. The data shows that 10 of the 13 prefectures and cities in Jiangsu have been deeply aging. Among them, Nantong, Taizhou, Yangzhou and other central Jiangsu regions are the most prominent in aging.
Outside of Jiangsu, the birth rate in Beijing, Tianjin and other places has been below 1% for many years. According to the Beijing Statistical Yearbook 2021, Beijing's birth rate fell below 1% in 1991 and has been below 1% for 30 consecutive years. According to the Tianjin Statistical Yearbook 2021, Tianjin has had a birth rate of less than 1% for 24 consecutive years since 1997.
Birth rates in Jiangsu, Beijing and Tianjin over the years since 1978 (unit: ‰) (Data source: Jiangsu Statistical Yearbook 2021, Beijing Statistical Yearbook 2021, Tianjin Statistical Yearbook 2021)
Niu Fengrui analyzed that beijing, Tianjin and other large cities, the urbanization rate is high, although there are a large number of young people inflow, but due to higher housing prices, economic pressure and other factors, the willingness to have children has also been significantly affected. At the same time, young people in big cities are more educated, and parents with high education have higher expectations of their children, and the high expectations are higher, and the cost of parenting is high, which will also affect the willingness to have children.
Professor Dong Yuzhen, a population expert and president of the Guangdong Population Development Research Institute, analyzed the first finance and economics, from the perspective of the level of urbanization, the rapid increase of urbanization will affect people's concepts and behaviors of marriage and childbearing. In the past decade, the population has accelerated its transfer to large cities and central cities, people live in the city, housing, transportation, consumption, etc. Are under great pressure, which will have a practical impact on people's love and marriage behavior.
The "Social Blue Book: Analysis and Prediction of China's Social Situation in 2022" released by the Institute of Sociology of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and the Social Science Literature Publishing House on December 25 pointed out that the fertility status and fertility plan of people of childbearing age are not optimistic, and there are many difficulties in improving the fertility level in the future, and it is urgent to carry out more targeted and precise population work in a planned manner by group and region. From the perspective of the population, efforts can be made to enhance the fertility willingness of the "post-80s" population and the "post-90s" population.